Sergey Markedonov, a Russian Caucasian scholar and political analyst in his Telegram channel, he referred to the public support of US President Donald Trump to Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections on June 7.

He described it as the participation of “large-caliber” political artillery in the process. According to Markedonov, after Marco Rubio’s brief visit to the Yerevan airport, US President Donald Trump announced his support for Nikol Pashinyan and his “Civil Pact” party in the Armenian parliamentary elections, which, naturally, Russian commentators recorded this application of the American president on the “Truth Social” social network as another proof of the geopolitical turn of the Armenian authorities to the West.

“First, Trump says that Nikol [Vovai] Pashinyan “fully shares” his “vision of peace and prosperity for Armenia and the entire South Caucasus region.” Secondly, the US president concludes that in the event of Pashinyan’s victory, “we, the United States, Armenia, the South Caucasus and Central Asia will raise to unprecedented heights”.

Everything in these theses is wonderful. But there is a subtlety. For the American leader, his vision and US interests are in the forefront. Armenia is part of a larger geopolitical canvas, not even Caucasian, but Eurasian (Central Asia is not mentioned here, for the sake of a nice word). The United States seeks to secure its special, privileged position here. To achieve this goal, the elections in Armenia are considered as one of many problems. This formulation is well known to lecturers (especially in the field of students’ graduation theses and term papers defense): one goal and 5-10 problems. The goal of Trump and his team is to prevent any integration configuration in Eurasia unauthorized by Washington. There are many problems. Here is both the “settlement” with Georgia and the implementation of the infamous TRIPP (which is why Pashinyan’s team needs successful elections in Armenia). It is clear that such a view is not an equal and mutually beneficial partnership, but an invitation to play the role of a fragment for the external mosaic created by an extra-regional constructor. Markedonov expressed a similar opinion.

He also believes that there may be many grievances against Russia.

“And your humble servant has repeatedly written that he does not encourage either “agricultural-economic bans”, threats to “cut off gas”, or constant public reproaches about “parasitism”. But the topic of gas, like the South Caucasian railway, “Zangezur” copper-molybdenum combine, “Yandex” and many other topics, for many years have been about mutual benefit, not the puzzle of a geopolitical chess game.

At least until 2023, there were similar mutual benefits from security cooperation. Even if it has failed and is in a crisis, the disease should be treated, not “cut off and thrown away from the writer’s bosom”.

In Trumpian fashion, “friend” help is a de facto call to throw away what worked, replacing it with running after a ghostly “bluebird” (an unreal dream). In the case of Hungary, Trump’s notes did not work. It is not a fact that they will work in Armenia as well. But even if they suddenly “get it”, the story will not end there. As long as the lessons are learned.” Sergey Markedonov expressed a similar opinion.

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