Russian President Vladimir Putin joined a summit of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union on Friday amid growing tensions with Armenia over its shift toward Europe.

The government in Yerevan has angered the Kremlin by declaring its intention to seek European Union membership, though any prospect of entering the bloc remains years away. Putin earlier this month drew a parallel to Ukraine, which he invaded in February 2022, and Kyiv’s own desire to join the EU.

Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan skipped the talks, which also included the leaders of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan, saying he’s busy campaigning for 7 June parliamentary elections. 

“There was a businesslike discussion of the situation that is developing, which everyone is perfectly aware of,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said about Armenia, according to the Interfax news service. He added that the four leaders made a statement on the matter at the meeting, but didn’t elaborate on its contents.

Meanwhile, Russia is threatening to impose economic penalties on Armenia if the small Caucasus republic continues to pursue its goal of bloc membership.

Russia will suspend or terminate agreements on supplies of gas, fuel and rough diamonds if Armenia continues its EU accession process, the Foreign Ministry in Moscow warned on Wednesday. Preferential gas supplies could be replaced by a market-based regime involving far higher prices if Armenia leaves the Eurasian Union, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Russia already this month suspended imports of flowers, mineral water, wine and brandy from Armenia, citing alleged breaches of phytosanitary standards. On Thursday, it followed up with restrictions that will also include imports of tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers and strawberries. 

“Moscow is explicitly deploying what is meant to be a trade forum as a geopolitical ultimatum: turn away from Russia and you will feel the pain,” said Bota Iliyas, a risk analyst at the London-based firm Schillings. “Applying pressure now, ahead of Armenia’s elections in June, is also a way for Moscow to make Pashinyan pay a price for his Western pivot.”

Armenia is at the centre of an increasing geopolitical struggle in the Caucasus region that’s a key element of the so-called Middle Corridor route for trade and energy supplies linking Europe and China through Central Asia and bypassing Russia. Long the region’s dominant power, Russia is now facing competition for influence from the US, the EU and regional powers including Turkey and Iran.

Russia remains Armenia’s largest trading partner, though the total volume has declined from its 2024 record of nearly $12 billion (€10.2 billion). 

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a brief stopover in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, on Tuesday to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement as well as a joint declaration on the planned ‘Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity’. The two sides intend to form a joint company to manage transport, energy and digital infrastructure on the route through Armenia linking neighbouring Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. 

Armenia held its first bilateral summit with the EU in Yerevan this month, a day after it hosted dozens of world leaders for the European Political Community meeting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s attendance at the latter event angered Russian officials, who accused Armenia of “unfriendly” actions.

Home to the only Russian military base in the South Caucasus, Armenia on Thursday marked its Republic Day with a military parade showcasing hardware purchased outside Russia, highlighting Yerevan’s effort to reduce its reliance on Moscow.

“The Kremlin is seeking to send a broader message to other post-Soviet states that may be tempted to follow Armenia’s example and deepen cooperation with the EU,” said Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

Putin warned Pashinyan that Armenia can’t be a member of both blocs and has suggested Russia is ready for a “mutually beneficial divorce” if Armenians opt for Europe. 

“We understand perfectly well – and we don’t need Russia to tell us – that membership in the EEU and membership in the EU are incompatible,” Armenian foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan said last week. When the moment comes to choose, “we will make that decision,” he said.

Russia has rejected that approach and said it will raise the question of Armenia’s continued involvement in the EEU, even as there’s no mechanism to suspend or expel the country. Pashinyan said the matter can’t be discussed as Armenia isn’t seeking to change its status in the group. 

Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan attended Friday’s meeting and said his country continues to work in good faith within the group. 

“While advancing on the path to the EU, which is the sovereign right of Armenia, it cannot and should not do so” using the funds of Eurasian Economic Union member states, Peskov said Friday, according to Interfax. “It has to do this at its own expense.”