1. First, this visit will be the first visit of the Secretary of State to Armenia after Hillary Clinton’s visit in 2014.

2. This seems to be a short, non-overnight “transit” visit. The Secretary of State is returning from India and, following Donald Rumsfeld’s 2001 visit, will spend a few hours in Yerevan. At that time, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld met with Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan and then President Robert Kocharyan at the presidential residence and was satisfied with both negotiations.

3. Rubio will meet with his Armenian counterpart at the airport for 30 minutes, then he will sign a memorandum of understanding, and then, maybe, he will have a meeting with the Prime Minister in the government. If such a meeting does not take place, it will certainly be a significant circumstance.

4. The American agenda in the South Caucasus has two main priorities: the implementation of the TRIPP project and the tightening of the ring around Iran. By the way, TRIPP is also considered in the context of the policy towards Iran.

5. Rubio’s not going to Baku, in my opinion, is not accidental from this point of view. TRIPP passes through the territory of Armenia and is primarily an Armenian-American project. Azerbaijan’s position is known to the Americans both on the TRIPP and Iran issues, so there is almost no need for additional clarifications. Therefore, the main focus of the negotiations, I think, can be focused on the developments around Iran and the future of TRIPP.

6. I am sure that many people are also interested in whether Rubio will directly support the current government before the elections. I consider it possible, but one of the busiest people in the world would definitely not visit Yerevan for that purpose alone. It is another matter that the government will use this visit for PR purposes, even if Rubio does not make any public message.

7. More globally, the US in Armenia will naturally support any force that will advance American interests in the South Caucasus, regardless of what that force is.

8. I hope that the authorities of Armenia will not get involved in any anti-Iranian adventure, because even the Trump administration does not find an “exit strategy” in line with the situation after being involved.

Political scientist Suren Sargsyan

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