Armenia’s pivot toward the West is coming under increasing pressure from Vladimir Putin’s Russia as the South Caucasus nation prepares for parliamentary elections next month.
(Bloomberg) — Armenia’s pivot toward the West is coming under increasing pressure from Vladimir Putin’s Russia as the South Caucasus nation prepares for parliamentary elections next month.
For decades, Armenia was seen as Russia’s closest ally in the region — hosting Russian troops at a military base, relying heavily on the Kremlin for weapons, and integrating deeply into Moscow-led political and economic structures. But Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s aspirations to join the European Union and engineer Armenia’s most significant realignment since the collapse of the Soviet Union have exacerbated already strained ties.
Yerevan’s hosting of a European summit this month that was attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy drew Moscow’s particular ire. Armenian flower imports were subsequently banned, as Russian officials branded Armenia’s actions “unfriendly.”
The Kremlin’s now threatening to raise Armenia’s continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, a customs bloc of former Soviet states, at a May 29 summit in Kazakhstan.
Putin addressed the deterioration in ties on May 9, telling reporters that Armenia should put the issue to a referendum and that Russia was ready to conduct an “intelligent and mutually beneficial divorce” if voters chose a European path.
But he also drew parallels with Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine stretching back to 2014. “How did it start? It started with Ukraine’s joining or attempting to join the EU,” Putin said.
Pashinyan pushed back Friday, saying only Armenia can discuss its membership status in the EEU. He plans to skip the summit in Kazakhstan to campaign for his ruling Civil Contract party in the June 7 parliamentary elections in Armenia.
Several opposition groups in the election want closer ties with Russia, including the Strong Armenia alliance led by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, the Prosperous Armenia Party of tycoon Gagik Tsarukyan and the Armenia alliance led by ex-President Robert Kocharyan, who ruled the country for a decade until 2008.
Karapetyan is campaigning while facing prosecution in Armenia on charges including money laundering, tax evasion and attempts to usurp power. He has rejected the allegations as politically motivated.
The Foreign Ministry in Moscow late Wednesday denounced as “fake news” a report alleging that the Kremlin was coordinating an information campaign against Pashinyan, and that several Armenian opposition figures had links to Russian intelligence.
“We view the latest ‘sensation’ about ‘Russian agents in Yerevan’ as yet another episode in the campaign to oust Russia from the South Caucasus,” the ministry said in a Telegram post that blamed “Brussels-based propagandists.”
The standoff carries echoes of 2013, when then-President Serzh Sargsyan abruptly abandoned plans to sign an association agreement with the EU and instead joined the EEU under Kremlin pressure.
Tensions began to spiral after Azerbaijan’s military victories in 2020 and 2023 over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh exposed the limits of Russian security guarantees to Armenia. Officials in Yerevan increasingly questioned the value of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Moscow-led military alliance that Armenia once viewed as the cornerstone of its security doctrine.
The Pashinyan government effectively froze participation in the CSTO and repeatedly skipped high-level meetings, triggering hostile responses from Russian officials and state media. It also began to strengthen cooperation with the US and NATO.
A preliminary peace accord signed by Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at White House talks with President Donald Trump in August opened the door for deeper US engagement in Armenia, too.
The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a transport and energy corridor linking Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia, will give the US a stake in the Caucasus region potentially for a century through a joint venture with Yerevan.
Yet Armenia’s attempt to distance itself from Moscow remains constrained by deep economic and structural dependence.
Russia continues to dominate key sectors of Armenia’s energy system, including its nuclear power plant, as well as transport infrastructure and trade flows. Remittances from Armenians working in Russia remain a critical source of income for thousands of households.
Still, the nation of about 3 million people is accelerating cooperation with Brussels, which held its first-ever summit with Armenia this month. That’s after Armenian lawmakers voted last year to commit the government to begin preparations for seeking eventual EU accession.
Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan told reporters Tuesday that Yerevan isn’t contemplating divorce from Russia and wants good relations with Moscow even as it builds ties with the EU.
“We understand perfectly well — and we don’t need Russia to tell us — that membership in the EEU and membership in the EU are incompatible,” Mirzoyan said. When the moment comes to choose “we will make that decision,” he said.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said Armenia’s approach of remaining in the EEU until it switches to the EU was “absolutely unacceptable” to Moscow, the Interfax news service reported Wednesday.
“Armenia won’t be able to dance at two weddings at the same time,” Galuzin said.
—With assistance from Chris Miller.
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