ArmInfo.info

The political landscape and the balance of political forces in Armenia’s pre-election period continue to shift. According to a rapid poll conducted by the CAEAC Focus sociological center from May 4 to 10, 2026, the ruling Civil Contract party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, is losing to Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia bloc.

The CAEAC Focus report notes that Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia  bloc is almost 3 percentage points ahead of the ruling Civil Contract bloc (20.6% versus 17.8%). According to the results of the survey, the votes of approximately 60% of voters who intend to go to the polls would be distributed among the main political forces as  follows:

United Opposition (Karapetyan/Kocharyan/Tsarukyan) – 46%; Civil  Contract Party – 18%. Taking into account spoilers, the opposition would have captured more than half of the votes, while the pro-government camp would have approached 30%. Two-thirds of voters stated that the political position of Catholicos Garegin II, whom Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan refuses to recognize, is important to them. Of the well-known politicians, only three have a positive rating/anti-rating balance: Samvel and Narek Karapetyan, and Robert  Kocharyan, all three are opposition leaders. Their opponent, Nikol  Pashinyan, is the most unpopular in the country, trusted by approximately 11% and distrusted by approximately 79%. About 40% of  Armenians surveyed do not consider foreign leaders to be  authoritative election campaigners. Nevertheless, 18% would listen to  Putin, 13% to Trump, and 10% to Macron. If faced with a stark choice  between the EU and the EAEU, 74% of Armenians would choose the EAEU. The express telephone survey was conducted by SAEAC Focus from May 4 to 10, 2026. 1,220 respondents were interviewed. Population: The  population of Armenia aged 18 and older. The sample was  representative and was formed proportionally to the population of the  regions and Yerevan by randomly dialing mobile and landline telephone numbers (RDD – Random Digit Dialing method). At a confidence level of  95%, the maximum margin of error does not exceed +3.1%.

It should be noted that CAEAC Focus (Free Alliance of Euro-Asian Sociologists) is an international network of volunteer sociologists conducting sociological research, surveys, and sentiment monitoring in the post-Soviet countries. The focus is on the countries of Euro-Asia, particularly Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan, with a  focus on issues of politics, international relations, and security.