Armenian-Russian relations are now in the stage of an open and aggressive public crisis, where alliance ethics has given way to direct ultimatums. The mistrust accumulated over the years between Yerevan and Moscow has gone out of control, turning into an open geopolitical confrontation. We are witnessing a situation where the perception of a strategic partnership is crumbling, and the communication between the parties has turned into an exchange of remote accusations, which indicates the degradation of relations and a new, unpredictable milestone.

The peak of expression of this crisis was the last drastic statement of Vladimir Putin, which was sounded as a last warning. Armenia should make its final choice between EAEU and EU. However, the remarkable thing is that the RA authorities declare that they have no plans to leave the EAEU. RA Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated that when the moment comes, when they understand that Armenia has to make a choice between the EU and EAEU, they should make that choice. “There is nothing new in this matter. Currently, we are a member of EAEU, we continue our activities there. When the time comes, we will do it,” he said.

However, the Russian president’s direct emphasis that the issue of Armenia should become the subject of discussion at the upcoming EAEU meeting is nothing more than an attempt to put the RA authorities in front of collective responsibility, making it clear that the pursuit of the European vector will have a concrete economic and political price. This is a public challenge to the Armenian authorities, who hope that Russia cannot pull Armenia out of the EAEU due to the insufficiency of legal regulations, as well as the legal regulation of making decisions by consensus in the EAEU.

All this predicts a situation where the Armenian-Russian bilateral tension can turn into a systemic crisis for the entire EAEU. If Moscow decides to take tough actions and brings to the agenda the issue of the expediency of Armenia’s membership or removal from the structure, the parties will find themselves in a difficult political situation. Since the EAEU is based on the principles of economic integration, the absence or uncertainty of mechanisms for forced removal of a member state can create legal uncertainty.

The crux of the problem here is the consensus model of decision-making in the EAEU, which can turn into an explosive tool. If Russia tries to give legal force to the restrictive decisions against Armenia, and Yerevan, using its right to vote, tries to block possible decisions, the lack of consensus will not only not allow solving the issue of Armenia in the EAEU, but also the EAEU will face an institutionally intractable problem. This will be the turning point of the Armenian-Russian crisis, where the most serious bilateral political disagreement will affect the viability of the largest integration project in the post-Soviet area.

These developments suggest that Armenian-Russian relations are approaching a turning point, where an absolute political impasse may develop. If Moscow tries to move the issue of removing Armenia from the EAEU to a practical dimension, both the bilateral relations and the structure itself may end up in legal limbo. EAEU does not have clearly developed mechanisms for unilaterally or forcibly expelling a member state, Russia’s attempt to “punish” Yerevan for its foreign policy choices may run into the union’s own statutory problems, creating an unprecedented crisis.

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that the RA authorities want to take the path of European integration, to deepen political cooperation and relations with the EU, without leaving the EAEU.

According to him, this model was most likely chosen because the EU does not promise membership, or even if it does promise, it is not possible to say whether this membership is possible or not. Having understood all this, according to the analyst, Armenia does not want to leave the EAEU, which is a useful structure for the Republic of Armenia.

“Armenia’s calculations are understandable, but it is also clear that this is not an acceptable model and will not be for Russia, which has always responded to other attempts to choose the path of European integration in the post-Soviet space. In the case of Armenia, the Russian side simply calls for an orientation, a choice. Here it is important to note the change in Russia’s tactics. If in the past Moscow used clear pressure mechanisms, today it has switched to political pragmatism. Russia’s statements that Armenia should choose between the EU and EAEU prove that Russia has stopped considering Armenia as an “unconditional ally” and has switched to relations based on interests. This means that Moscow no longer keeps on its side those who do not share its geopolitical agenda. he draws a line by making it clear that the European choice will mean the end of all Russian economic privileges,” the analyst said.

He believes that Moscow’s choice of the EAEU platform as a place for discussions shows that Russia does not hesitate to discuss the issue, because political clarity is more important.

“I think this is not another freezing of relations, but a systemic problem, where Yerevan’s attempts to maintain economic ties, without full political agreement, will face Russia’s harsh response. I don’t think it’s possible to find some new relationship formula. It should be noted that they have changed, the Russian Federation already notes this and offers to discuss this issue. From that point of view, the upcoming EAEU meeting will be important and it will become clear what opinions the EAEU member states have on this issue,” he said.

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