Looking at global developments, today’s visit of Donald Trump to China is primarily expected to be an attempt to stabilize US-PRC relations, not a “great historical agreement”.

The main topics on the agenda are trade, technology and especially the United States, the situation around Taiwan, issues related to the Iran conflict, and the global economy and communications.

The most likely developments are:

Extension of the trade “ceasefire”. After mutual threats over tariffs and restrictions on rare metals, both sides are interested in reducing tensions, at least temporarily. This is exactly what the global markets expect.

Partial economic agreements. The US wants to:

• expand purchases of American goods by China,

• ensure stable supplies of rare metals,

• reduce pressure on American businesses.

China, for its part, is seeking to loosen US restrictions on the export of chips and high-tech products.

In general, breakthrough results should not be expected in reducing the risks of a trade war. However, the maintenance of “managed competition” between the world’s two largest economies should be considered a success.

No final decisions are expected regarding Taiwan. This is one of the most sensitive topics. Beijing will demand a reduction in American support for Taiwan, but Trump’s opportunities for real concessions are limited due to the position of the US Congress.

President Trump will try to get China involved in some way or at least come to an agreement in putting pressure on Iran. Washington is interested in Beijing helping to reduce risks around the Strait of Hormuz and exerting influence on Tehran. Whether or not China will accept this as a bargaining chip is hard to say. Most likely, it is related to the agreement to be reached regarding sanctions and technologies.

A possible discussion is also expected regarding Russia and Ukraine. Many experts believe that here the US is unlikely to achieve significant concessions from Beijing.

Politically, the visit is also important because it is Trump’s first full visit to China in many years. Both sides want to show that they can maintain a direct dialogue despite existing antagonisms and the existing regional conflict.

If we look more broadly, the main question for the world is whether the current US-China rivalry will turn into a long-term “cold economic conflict” or whether the parties will be able to keep it under control. This visit of Trump most likely refers to the second option.

Former RA Deputy Defense Minister Artak Zakaryan

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