Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to Armenia’s European aspirations, declaring that Armenia’s plans to join the European Union “require special consideration”.

“We have discussed this with Prime Minister Pashinyan more than once, and we do not see anything special. In fact, and he will confirm, I have already told him several times and now I can publicly repeat: we will support everything that is beneficial to the Armenian people,” Putin said, continuing, if this or that decision is beneficial to the Armenian people, Russia will not be against it.

At the same time, the Russian President pointed out some circumstances, which, according to him, are important both for him and for his partners. “For example, our trade turnover with Armenia has decreased now, it was much more last year, the year before, but still $7 billion in 2025. If we take into account that the country’s GDP is 29 billion, it is a serious amount, and Armenia receives significant advantages within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union,” Putin said. According to him, it would be right to take a decision as soon as possible, for example, to hold a referendum, in relation to the population of Armenia, its citizens, or in relation to Russia as the main economic partner. He believes that it is none of their business, but continues that it would be fundamentally logical to hold a referendum and ask the citizens of Armenia what their choice would be. “According to that, we would also draw appropriate conclusions and go the way of a soft, intelligent and mutually beneficial divorce,” Putin stated.

He said that he proposed to discuss Armenia’s plans related to the European Union at the next EAEU summit. However, Pashinyan announced that he will not participate in the session of the Supreme Council of EAEU to be held in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, on May 28-29. The Prime Minister explained it with a campaign. Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan will replace him at the session.

Spread in parallel EU Enlargement Commissioner Martha Kosi reference to RA aspirations. Kos noted that Europe will support Armenia in its aspirations to become a member of the EU.

“Only the people of Armenia can decide their future. The last meeting of the European political community, as well as the EU-Armenia summit, showed the way they want to go, and Europe will support them,” said Kos.

During today’s briefing, Pashinyan announced that RA will not put such an issue on the agenda until there is no need to hold elections. “I don’t agree with inappropriate wording either. I also had occasion to say in the National Assembly that we sometimes confuse interstate relations with marriage. In interstate relations, the Republic of Armenia is guided by interstate logic, and we are an equal member of the EAEU, just like other members, as long as we are a EAEU member, we fully participate in all decision-making. Until the need arises, we are not going to ask such a question. we will hold a referendum when it is necessary,” Pashinyan said.

He emphasized once again, “we have not had, do not have and will not have the goal of harming the interests of Russia.”

“We will continue to be guided by the state interests of the Republic of Armenia and we will continue to deepen and develop our relations with the Russian Federation with the understanding that an inevitable transformation is taking place in those relations,” Pashinyan noted, continuing to deepen our future relations with the European Union and moving according to the logic of the law on starting the EU membership process, that is, continuing the democratic reforms.

Vladimir Putin’s use of the term “soft and intelligent bridegroom” is not accidental. it testifies to Moscow’s clear strategy. If in the past Russia tried to use certain levers to stop Armenia’s drift towards the West, now it is playing an “open cards” game, putting Yerevan in front of an ultimatum. The proposal to hold a referendum is also remarkable, by which the Russian authorities make it clear that the government should not make a single decision on this matter.

With these references, Moscow makes it clear that the period of “sitting on two chairs” is over, and economic privileges are directly linked to political loyalty.

Տնտեսական գործոնը՝ որպես ճնշման հիմնական գործիք, մնում է Կրեմլի ձեռքին։

Putin’s mention of RA GDP and trade turnover figures is a warning about the possible economic price that Armenia will have to pay for EU membership candidacy. In this context, the intention to discuss the issue of Armenia at the next EAEU summit can be considered as the application of the “collective pressure” mechanism, where Moscow will try to show Yerevan’s isolation through the other members of the union, while maintaining the European vector.

Pashinyan’s government is trying to delay the final moment of “either-or” as much as possible, hoping to maintain economic ties with Russia in a situation where European integration has no clear perspective. However, Pashinyan’s absence from the Astana summit once again highlights the deepening of the political divide, which is already difficult to hide even under the most flexible diplomatic formulations.

As for the future course, Armenia is entering a difficult phase of foreign policy, where Russia is putting questions to Armenia at the highest level. The EU, represented by Martha Kos, promises support, but the tools and speed of this support are still disproportionate to the challenges that may arise as a result of even a so-called “soft rapprochement” with Russia. According to experts, Armenia will not be able to diversify its economy and security system in a short period of time, so the “moment of choice” pushed by Moscow can turn into a source of internal political and economic shocks, taking into account the presence of Russian leverage.

The situation suggests that in the coming months, the developments surrounding the elections for Armenia will be sharp in a situation where Armenia is preparing for national elections.  The “intelligent divorce” offered by Russia is just a formulation, the Russian leader makes it clear that European integration will deprive Armenia of economic privileges and advantages, that is, essential resources, which are obtained due to Armenia’s EAEU membership, cheap gas prices, and a number of other privileges.

Moscow makes it clear that Armenia may be deprived of vital economic resources, which, according to calculations, should force Yerevan to either maintain its current foreign policy line, going through major challenges, or reconsider its foreign policy ambitions. However, the remarkable thing is that Yerevan perfectly understands that Armenia will not have a prospect of European integration in the foreseeable future. That is the reason why Pashinyan talks about the need to carry out reforms, without clearly formulating Armenia’s aspiration for EU membership. This, as a goal, is not interesting to Brussels, therefore, Yerevan does not raise the topic either.

This harsh rhetoric of Putin follows the 8th summit of the European Political Community, which was hosted in Armenia in 2026. on May 4. This was the first time when the entire European elite and the Secretary General of NATO gathered in the capital of a CSTO member country. Putin’s reaction days after the summit aims to neutralize the political effect left by that event and show that the “real” decision-maker in the region is still Russia.

Another crucial factor in 2026. Parliamentary elections to be held on June 7. Armenia is in the hot pre-election phase, and the Kremlin is trying to make the issue of the foreign political vector a part of the pre-election discourse.  The EPC summit in Yerevan became the point that forced Moscow to open ultimatums, making it clear that the price to be paid for the European perspective would be significant.

—