Armenia hosted Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya at the European Political Community summit, but this does not necessarily mean that the country’s relations with the Belarusian democratic forces will change fundamentally. Just as Armenia’s move toward the European Union will not necessarily be successful. Belsat discussed with experts how Yerevan is attempting to move away from the Kremlin and toward Europe and whether democratic Belarusians will benefit from this.
Armenia has had tense relations with the Minsk authorities for several years, and on May 4, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, visited Yerevan. There is even discussion about whether Armenia will become safe for Belarusians persecuted for their politics.
The only ally of Russia and Belarus that supported the democratic forces
Ryhor Nizhnikau, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, emphasizes that Armenia is currently the only ally of Russia and Belarus under official treaties, particularly the CSTO, which is developing relations and providing diplomatic support to Belarusian democratic forces.
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If this government remains in power (parliamentary elections are in June in Armenia – Ed.) – we don’t know for sure yet, but the chances are quite high – we will continue to see this trend. That is, Armenia will become an increasingly safe country for both Belarusians and Russians. There will be increasing opportunities for those already in Armenia and for those who want to escape these concentration camps (from Russia and Belarus – Ed.),” says Ryhor Nizhnikau.
At the same time, pro-democratic Belarusians should not have high expectations even if the current government remains in power, the source notes.
Historian and political commentator Alexander Friedman shares this view. He believes that rapid, qualitative changes in Armenia’s relations with the Belarusian democratic forces are unlikely, and that Armenia did not initiate Tsikhanouskaya’s visit to Yerevan. Most likely, the Europeans who organized the summit asked the Armenian leadership whether they were prepared to see Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya there, the expert believes.
“The Armenian side has demonstrated its readiness. Especially since they are exploiting the Belarusian factor in today’s election campaign. As for the [pro-democracy] Belarusians in Armenia, the current situation is favorable. Obviously, the Armenian side isn’t particularly interested in cooperating with the Belarusian authorities. How sustainable is this? I’m honestly not sure. There are positive trends, and, of course, Tsikhanouskaya’s participation in this summit and meetings with the Armenian side are a success. But it’s too early to draw any conclusions from this,” says Alexander Friedman.
Europe and Armenia have mutual interests
The intensification of relations between the democratic forces of Belarus and Armenia has become possible due to Armenia’s orientation toward the European Union and its distancing from Russia. Ryhor Nizhnikau notes that the June elections will show how stable this reorientation is.
“I think this process is quite stable in Armenian society. Today, with the exception of Belarus, all countries in the borderlands of Europe and Russia continue or have adopted this policy of balancing. They see a conflict between Europe and Russia and are taking advantage of it [to distance themselves from Russia],” says Nizhnikau.
“It’s quite interesting how, even as a Russian ally, involved in all Russian integration processes, Armenia is showing the way to distance itself from this alliance.”
Alexander Fridman adds that there is interest in Armenia from the European side:
“Strategically, it’s an important country. Moreover, it’s a country located in Russia’s sphere of influence. Trying to pull it out is a very interesting opportunity for Europe. Especially since there have been certain shifts on the Armenian side.”
Moreover, from the EU’s perspective, Armenia cannot be considered a problematic country, Friedman believes:
“It already has a certain democratic tradition and structures, and imperfect but largely democratic elections are held there. There is freedom of the press. It is a country that already has a certain foundation for integration into European structures and the EU.” There is a desire to move in this direction.”
Breaking away from Russia will not be possible without obstacles
However, it is unknown how Armenian society will react and whether it will continue to support the EU in a situation where Russia exerts economic, propaganda, and military pressure due to the country’s attempts to distance itself.
“Therefore, Armenia still needs to decide what to do next with its participation in various integration associations under Russia’s auspices. What will happen to the Russian military personnel stationed in Armenia? All these are still open questions. There are no obvious answers,” emphasizes Alexander Fridman.
Ryhor Nizhnikau adds that it’s impossible to say that Armenia will ultimately necessarily join the European Union:
“Much depends on whether Ukraine, which is currently struggling to permanently leave the so-called ‘Russian world,’ where it has been for almost four centuries, will be able to do so. If it succeeds, it will be the main driver of the disintegration of Russian imperial space. This will push Belarus, the countries of the Caucasus, and so on.”
For now, Armenia is forced to gradually retreat from Russia and wait for a window of opportunity. This is precisely what the Armenian leadership and society are currently preparing for, believes Ryhor Nizhnikau.
“The European Union is very actively developing relations with both Armenia and the countries of Central Asia.” Armenia has become the EU’s main ally in the Caucasus. This would have been unimaginable just five years ago. Whether the EU will be able to resolve the dilemma of what to do with Armenia if it wants to join the EU and is ready is a big question,” concludes Ryhor Nizhnikau.
Arsen Rudenka / kz belsat.eu
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