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California Courier Online, May 4, 2026

California
Courier Online, May 4, 2026

1- Turkish Investigative Reporter Reveals

Turkey’s Infiltration Efforts in the U.S.

By Harut
Sassounian
www.TheCaliforniaCourier.com

2- Echoes of
belonging: The Armenian church’s bells of Chennai, India and their unseen
legacy

3- Armenia To Make Undisclosed Payment To Trump’s ‘Board Of Peace’

4- Armenian Genocide Survivor Mary Vartanian at 111: A Living Witness of Faith, Memory, and Resilience

5- United States warns tourists not to travel to Azerbaijan

6- Jewish GOP Lawmaker Faces Backlash From Armenian Americans Over ‘Racist Rant’

7- Inside the seductive complexity of Armenia’s election maths

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1- Turkish Investigative Reporter Reveals

Turkey’s Infiltration Efforts in the U.S.

By Harut Sassounian
www.TheCaliforniaCourier.com
Dissident Turkish investigative reporter Abdullah Bozkurt, who resides in Stockholm, Sweden, has exposed Turkey’s multilayered and expanding operations within the United States in an article published in the Nordic Monitor titled “Turkey ramps up covert and overt influence operations in Washington.”

Here is how Bozkurt summarized his findings: “Turkey has significantly expanded its lobbying and influence operations in the United States, building a solid and increasingly sophisticated network of registered agents, legal advisers, political consultants, party representatives, nonprofits and public relations firms working in tandem to shape Washington’s perception of Ankara’s policies.”

Foreign entities are required by U.S. law (the Foreign Intelligence Registration Act — FARA) to disclose to the Department of Justice (DOJ) when they hire U.S. lobbying or PR firms. The DOJ website shows the contracts signed by the foreign entities with the U.S. firms, the amount they were paid, and the details of meetings or interactions with U.S. politicians.

Remarkably, Turkey retained a total of 105 U.S. lobbying firms between 2001 and 2021, according to a March 9, 2026 report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS).

In addition to its lobbying efforts, Turkey has also engaged in broader influence-peddling activities. According to political activist Laura Loomer, who is a close confidante of Pres. Trump, the CIA “has hard evidence that Turkey, more specifically the Erdogan administration, has directed spending for podcasters to undermine the Trump administration’s Middle East policies.” She posted on X: “the CIA has evidence of this Turkish funding going to at least one female podcaster and at least one male podcaster.” She concluded by writing: “Turkey is the largest financier of the Muslim Brotherhood.” Bozkurt finds Loomer’s claim consistent with “the well-documented track record of the Erdogan government covertly financing operations on U.S. soil, ranging from support for Muslim Brotherhood-linked networks to espionage activities targeting Erdogan critics, such as members of the Gülen movement.”

The U.S. firms hired by Ankara “engage in a wide range of activities, including contacting U.S. officials, arranging meetings, organizing events, writing opinion pieces [in U.S. media], and coordinating messaging campaigns designed to promote Turkey’s policy positions,” Bozkurt wrote.

The FARA filing by Turken Foundation Inc., “a New York-based nonprofit controlled by family members and associates of Erdogan, reveals the scale and structure of financial flows supporting Ankara-aligned activities in the United States. The filing shows that during the six-month reporting period ending November 30, 2025, the foundation received $2 million in funding from Turkish-linked entities, specifically the Turkish Youth and Education Service Foundation (TURGEV) and the Muslim Brotherhood-linked Turkish Islamist foundation Ensar. TURGEV is run by Erdogan’s son, Bilal Erdogan,” Bozkurt wrote.

In terms of direct political lobbying, the Turkish Embassy in Washington signed on April 18, 2024, a new contract for $1.02 million “with LB International Solutions LLC, one of the longest-standing contractors working on behalf of the Turkish Embassy to engage Congress. The firm has also expanded its portfolio to include private Turkish companies such as ONJA, which provides financial and trade consulting services” Bozkurt wrote.

The FARA filing indicated that LB International Solutions LLC is tasked with “providing lobbying and government relations services to Turkiye,” including the adoption of pro-Turkey legislation “that promotes Turkiye’s interests and provides a positive image of Turks, Turkiye, and the United States-Turkiye relationship.”

Furthermore, the Embassy of Turkey in Washington signed in May 2025 a $1.54 million contract with the Washington-based law firm of Saltzman & Evinch to provide “legal advice and analysis on law and policy regarding matters and developments that concern and affect US-Turkiye relations, such as current and potential litigation, pending legislation, and executive decisions and policy,” according to the FARA filing. According to Bozkurt, the Wall Street Journal reported that “the Turkish government used Saltzman & Evinch to gather information on Erdogan critics living in the United States. The firm’s partner, Günay Evinch, a dual Turkish-US national, also hired Rümeysa Kalın (Karabulut), the daughter of Turkish intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın, for a period of time.”

Meanwhile, the Washington office of Turkey’s ruling party AKP reported in its FARA filing that $875,534 was transferred from Turkey for the party’s operational expenses in the United States, while it spent $941,833. The FARA filing stated that the AK Party’s Washington office “engaged in political, social, and cultural activities such as public gatherings and in-person meetings.”

The Turkish government signed on January 31, 2025 a contract with another U.S. lobbying firm, Skyline Capitol, for $600,000. The FARA filing shows that “Skyline Capitol is tasked with engaging both Congress and the executive branch while also expanding Turkey’s reach into state and local political systems across the United States. The firm is required to build relationships with governors, state legislators and mayors nationwide, strengthen ties with Turkish-American business communities, and engage think tanks, academia and policy institutions to shape narratives.” Another U.S. firm, Imperium Strategies LLC, has a subcontracting arrangement with Skyline Capitol.

In addition, Geoffrey Weill Associates was hired by GoTürkiye to work on an initiative of Turkey’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism to shape public perception and promote tourism in the United States. The Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT) also maintains a registered presence in Washington.

Turkey spends millions of dollars each year on a variety of U.S. lobbying firms. Naturally, it takes a lot of money to distort the facts, misrepresent the truth, whitewash the Erdogan government’s massive violations of human rights, and cover up past genocides.

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2- Echoes
of belonging: The Armenian church’s bells of Chennai, India and their unseen
legacy

Three
hundred years have gone by, but the Armenian church’s six sonorous bells
continue to spread calm, and remind some others of a home far and beyond

BY Sanjana
Ganesh

The Hindu

Do bells
clang, chime, or ring? On Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day on April 24, they
seemed to toll, ringing across the streets of George Town.

There is
nothing more definitive about this area than a flurry of black lawyer gowns,
derelict century-old buildings, and mayhem on the streets. The demeanour of
this neighbourhood, just North of Fort St George, insists that in order to be
alive, one must first sweat. Amidst the chaos though, is an oasis of iridescent
white calm. The 300-year-old church dedicated to Saint Mary — located on
Armenian Street opposite the High Court of Madras, acts as an insulator,
cutting off honks, chatter and the harsh sun.

Upon
entering this chamber of quiet I am struck by the view of a stellar belfry
(pronounced bel-free and not fry, as I learnt yesterday). It is the church
complex’s only real medium of sound. When we climb to the top and inspect the
bells up close, I am unsure about what to expect, particularly because of how
old they look.

Jude
Johnson, the caretaker of the Armenian church, stands at the precipice of the
structure, holding on to six thick ropes, each connected to its six bells,
weighing around 150 kilograms each. “Shall I ring it?” he asks. Several deep,
heavy clangs rush through the air. “It is a special day, it is okay to ring it,”
he reconciles with himself.

“It is so
calming, isn’t it?” asks Ashkhen Khachatryan, an Armenian who researches the
community’s connection to Chennai.

The
300-year-old bell tower of the Armenian Church of St Mary is one of the most
remarkable symbols of Armenian heritage in Chennai, says Ashkhen. “It houses
six historic bells, each connected to the story of the Armenian community in
old Madras,” she adds.

When early
Armenians arrived in Chennai as merchants and traders in the mid 1600s, they
began realising the need for a formal space of prayer. The church on the
eponymous street was built in 1712 as a small wooden chapel, and later
reconstructed in 1772. The six bells in the belfry were used to call the
congregation to attend services and gatherings. “At that time, Madras had a
larger Armenian population, so the bells played an important community role,”
she says.

Ashkhen says
that the first and oldest bell, dating to 1754, became even more distinctive
when its lettering was reworked in 1808 by a local Madras foundry named
Arulapan. The name Arulapan can still be seen on the bell, written in Tamil
script. It was gifted in memory of ‘Mnatsakan‘, a then-resident by his father
Ghukas. “It makes the bell especially significant, as it reflects a rare
meeting of Armenian heritage and Tamil craftsmanship. It shows how the Armenian
community in Madras was closely connected with local artisans who helped
preserve and maintain their sacred objects,” she says.

All but two
bells lie suspended from thick Burma teak beams that seems to have stood the
time. “They are impossibly strong and require little maintenance. Just regular
cleaning,” Jude says.

Another one
of these bells dates to 1778. “There are two others from the 1790s which were
donated in memory of Eleazar Shameer, a young member of the prominent Shameer
family who died at just 19. The final two bells are from 1837 and were cast in
London by Thomas Mears, one of the leading bell foundries of the time. Their
donor names are not mentioned, but they were likely gifted by wealthy Armenian
benefactors of Madras,” Ashkhen says.

There is a
reason why the belfry continues to charm visitors till date. The bells are rung
every Sunday morning by the caretaker and whenever Armenians visit the church.
Ashken says that her son loves pulling the rope and hearing the peals when they
visit.

They are
also rung on Armenian Christmas (celebrated in January) , Easter, Armenian
Genocide Remembrance Day, Republic Day, and other meaningful community events.
“It serves as a living symbol of the Armenian presence in Chennai. Everytime I
am there, I think of the time from centuries ago when people from my country
once sat in the same chairs listening to this service,” Ashken says.

She adds
that for Armenians who visit today, the bells are deeply emotional. Their sound
creates a connection between past and present. “Many visitors say they have
never heard bells with such a beautiful and powerful tone as the bells of the
Armenian Church in Madras. When they ring, it is more than sound — it is
memory, identity, and belonging,” she says. “I am several thousand kilometres
away from home but during those moments, I am transported.”

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3- Armenia
To Make Undisclosed Payment To Trump’s ‘Board Of Peace’

Azatutyun.am

Switzerland
– U.S. President Donald Trump and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian
attend the launch of the Board of Peace initiative in Davos, January 22, 2026.

U.S.
President Donald Trump and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian attend the
launch of the Board of Peace initiative in Davos, January 22, 2026.

The Armenian
government on Thursday pledged to make a financial contribution to U.S.
President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” initiative but declined to disclose
its amount.

Armenia is
one of more than two dozen nations, including Azerbaijan and Turkey, that have
accepted Trump’s invitation to join the new body tasked with resolving
international conflicts. Their leaders, including Prime Minister Nikol
Pashinian, signed its founding charter in Switzerland in January.

Pashinian’s
cabinet formally recommended parliamentary ratification of the charter during a
weekly meeting. The Armenian Finance Ministry said ahead of the meeting that
Yerevan will have to finance its participation in the Board of Peace.

“I believe
that the Republic of Armenia must move beyond the status of a poor relative,”
Pashinian told journalists.

“Armenia has
no obligations, but I think we should participate and we will participate
[financially,]” he said, refusing to reveal how much his government will
contribute.

A
participating country must pay $1 billion for permanent membership in the Board
of Peace. Otherwise, it will serve a three-year term which can be renewed at
Trump’s discretion.

None of the
five permanent members of the UN Security Council other than the United States
has joined the initiative. Other major Western nations such as Germany and
Italy have also shunned it, highlighting concerns that the U.S.-led body could
undermine the work of the United Nations.

Trump claims
to have ended multiple international conflicts, including the
Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute, since returning to power more than a year ago.
The U.S. president hosted last August talks between Pashinian and Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev at the White House which resulted in the finalizing of
an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty. Also, Pashinian pledged during those
talks to open a U.S.-administered transit corridor for Azerbaijan through a key
Armenian region.

U.S. Vice
President JD Vance lavished praise on the Armenian premier and endorsed him
ahead of Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections when he visited Yerevan in
February. Vance said Pashinian’s reelection is essential for the launch of the
transit arrangement to be named after Trump.

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5- United States warns tourists not to travel to Azerbaijan

Travel Advisory
April 28, 2026

Azerbaijan – Level 3: Reconsider Travel




Advisory summary and areas of increased risk were updated.

Reconsider Travel to Azerbaijan due to terrorism, armed conflict, and risk of landmines. Some areas have increased risk. Read the entire Travel Advisory.

Do not travel to:

  • The southern border region due to risk of armed conflict (unless this is your best overland exit from Iran).
  • The border with Armenia due to risk of landmines.
  • The following territories due to landmines: Aghdam, Aghdara, Fuzuli, Gubadli, Jabrayil, Kalbajar, Khankendi, Khojaly, Khojavend, Lachın, Shusha, and Zangilan

Advisory Summary

Armed Conflict
Following the onset of hostilities between the United States and Iran on February 28, 2026, there has been an ongoing threat of drone and missile attacks from Iran. There was a March 5, 2026, drone strike on Nakhchivan International Airport. Commercial flights have also been seriously disrupted.

Terrorism
There is risk of terrorist violence, including terrorist attacks and other activity in Azerbaijan. Visit the U.S. Department of State’s country reports on terrorism to learn more.

Terrorist groups continue to plan attacks and are a risk in Azerbaijan. Terrorists may attack with little or no warning. They may target:

  • Tourist locations
  • Transportation centers (airports)
  • Markets and shopping malls
  • Local government buildings
  • Hotels, clubs and restaurants
  • Places of worship
  • Parks
  • Major sporting and cultural events
  • Educational institutionsOther public areas
  • Other public areas

Risks in specific areas
Level 4 – Do not travel

Border with Iran
Do not travel to the southern border region due to risk of armed conflict (unless this is your best overland exit from Iran).

Following the onset of hostilities between the United States and Iran on February 28, 2026, there has been an ongoing threat of drone and missile attacks from Iran. U.S. citizens should avoid the southern border area unless this is your best overland exit from Iran.

Border with Armenia
Do not Travel to the border with Armenia due to the risk of landmines

Landmines and unexploded ordnance exist throughout this region. Many of them are not marked, so it can be hard to know where they are.

Exercise a high degree of caution on roads near the Azerbaijan-Armenia border:

  • Be aware that some portions of the road may cross international boundaries without notice.
  • Roads may be controlled by checkpoints or closed to travelers without notice.

The U.S. government is unable to provide immediate emergency assistance to U.S. citizens because U.S. government employees working in Azerbaijan are prohibited from non-official travel to the border region. 

Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas.

Landmine-contaminated regions in Azerbaijan

  • Do not travel to the following regions due to landmines: Aghdam, Aghdara, Fuzuli, Gubadli, Jabrayil, Kalbajar, Khankendi, Khojali, Khojavend, Lachın, Shusha, and Zangilan
  • Armed conflict has stopped in these regions, but landmines are still in the ground and remain dangerous.
  • Landmines and unexploded ordnance exist throughout this region. Many of them are not marked, so it can be hard to know where they are.
  • The U.S. government is unable to provide immediate emergency services to U.S. citizens in these regions because U.S. government employees need approval to travel there.

Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas.

If you decide to travel to Azerbaijan:

  • Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to get important updates and alerts from the U.S. embassy or consulate. Enrolling helps the U.S. embassy or consulate contact you or your emergency contact in an emergency.
  • Review the Country Security Report for Azerbaijan.
  • Have a plan to leave in an emergency that does not depend on U.S. government help. Review our information on Crisis and Evacuations.
  • Review our information on Terrorism and Travel to High-Risk Areas.
  • Prepare a plan for emergency situations. Review the Traveler’s Checklist.
  • Visit the CDC page for the latest Travel Health Information related to your travel and return to the United States.
  • We highly recommend that you buy insurance before you travel. Check with your travel insurance provider about evacuation assistance, medical insurance, and trip cancelation coverage.

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6- Jewish GOP Lawmaker Faces Backlash From Armenian Americans Over ‘Racist Rant’

By Adeola Adeosun

Newsweek 

Representative Randy Fine, a Florida Republican, is facing backlash from an Armenian American advocacy group after telling a podcast host that “we don’t want Armenians to be able to serve in Congress”—a remark made during an attack on his GOP primary challenger Dan Bilzerian.

The congressman’s remarks arrive at a moment of heightened scrutiny over discriminatory rhetoric in Republican primary contests, and from a lawmaker who has been endorsed three times by President Donald Trump. How GOP leadership responds could shape whether the comments become a sustained political liability for Fine in the primary where he faces a challenger whose own platform openly includes antisemitic claims that the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) has identified as conspiracy framing.

For Armenian Americans, who number an estimated 1.5 million in the United States and have a long history of public service, the comments touch a particularly raw nerve. The remarks come less than three years after Azerbaijan’s 2023 ethnic cleansing of more than 100,000 Armenian Christians from Nagorno-Karabakh—a campaign Fine has been criticized for indirectly supporting through legislation backing Azerbaijan, according to the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), the largest and most influential U.S.-based grassroots Armenian American advocacy organization.

Newsweek reached out to Fine’s office and Bilzerian’s campaign via email on Saturday for comment.

What Representative Randy Fine Said

Fine, who is Jewish, appeared Thursday on The Jenny Beth Show where he attacked Bilzerian and extended his criticism to Armenians as a group. His full statement on the show was:

“Israel just put out a list of the top 10 most dangerous antisemites in the world. And to my amazement, a guy I’d never even heard of until about three weeks ago was ranked number one. He’s got a very large social media following, not from Florida, he lives in Las Vegas when he’s not in his foreign country of Armenia. But you know, he’s just a terrible antisemite. I think what he’s trying to show is that this group of hate-filled lunatics and losers can take hold in the Republican Party.

“But look, my, constituents are smart. The little Armenian said, I think that President Trump was a pedophile rapist who should be impeached. That’s not a winning argument. It may work in Armenia, where he’s from [sic], but that’s not an argument. That’s not gonna work in the United States. So, it’s bad. We have to take it seriously because we don’t want this to take root in our party. We don’t want Armenians to be able to serve in Congress. But I’m not gonna lose too much sleep about it.”

The Israeli government list Fine referenced ranked Bilzerian first among “prominent influencers in the global anti-semitic and anti-Zionist arena in 2025.”

The list placed climate activist Greta Thunberg in second and white supremacist Nick Fuentes in eighth.

The Armenian National Committee of America Responds

The remarks drew immediate condemnation from the ANCA.

“The ANCA condemns this racist anti-Armenian rant by US Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL), cosponsor of a reckless Congressional resolution to ship US arms and aid to genocidal Azerbaijan,” the advocacy organization wrote on X on Friday.

Aram Hamparian, executive director of the ANCA, told The Armenian Report on Saturday Fine’s statement was bigoted and politically self-interested.

“Randy Fine’s racist rant targeting Armenians comes as no surprise—after all, he’s backing a bill to arm and abet Azerbaijan, a genocidal dictatorship fresh off its ethnic cleansing of 150,000 Armenian Christians,” Hamparian said. “This hate-filled bigot has no place in Congress.”

In addition, ANCA Advocacy Director Gev Iskajyan wrote on X on Friday: “This isn’t just racist—it’s disqualifying. Saying Armenians shouldn’t be allowed to serve in Congress is blatant bigotry. No elected official who traffics in this kind of hate should be running for office.”

Who Is Randy Fine?

Fine, 51, was elected to represent Florida’s 6th Congressional District in April 2025 in a special election to replace former Congressman Michael Waltz. He serves on the House Foreign Affairs and Education and Workforce Committees. A third-generation Floridian, Fine built a career as an entrepreneur in retail, technology and hospitality before entering politics.

Fine was elected to the Florida House in 2016 and served the maximum eight years before moving to the Florida Senate and then Congress. As the only Jewish Republican in the Florida Legislature, his colleagues nicknamed him “The Hebrew Hammer” for his work opposing antisemitism. He graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College and earned an MBA from Harvard Business School. Trump endorsed him for reelection in October, calling him a “MAGA Warrior” on Truth Social. Fine’s campaign has noted he is the only person Trump has endorsed three times in the past two years.

Fine has been a controversial figure throughout his political career. He has called Representative Ilhan Omar, a Michigan Democrat, a “Muslim terrorist,” compared New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani to former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and said dropping nuclear weapons on Gaza would be a bad idea only because “the fallout would drift into Israel.”

Who Is Dan Bilzerian?

Bilzerian, 45, of Las Vegas, is a social media personality, professional poker player, and Ignite International Brands founder who filed to run for Congress in Florida’s 6th District in April as a Republican. Born in Tampa on December 7, 1980, he served in the U.S. Navy from 1999 to 2003 before attending the University of Florida and pursuing professional poker. He gained mass online following on Instagram and X and is also an Armenian citizen.

Bilzerian’s campaign platform—published on his official website—includes proposals to abolish the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Federal Reserve, end all foreign aid, prosecute politicians for “dual loyalty,” and what he calls ending “Jewish Supremacy.” The ADL classifies “Jewish supremacy” as an antisemitic conspiracy framing that plays into longstanding tropes alleging Jewish people are responsible for global tragedies

Bilzerian has questioned the death toll of the Holocaust and claimed Jewish people were responsible for the assassination of President John F. Kennedy and the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. He has called Fine a “fat Jew” and a “Jewish supremacist,” and told TMZ in April the term “antisemitic” is “made-up.” His campaign website states America “is being run into the ground by Jewish Special Interests,” among other antisemitic claims.

In an interview the same month with The Daytona Beach News-Journal, Bilzerian called Trump “a complete fraud, disaster, and a liar”—despite previously supporting him in 2016 and 2020. He told the outlet he believes the U.S. should “decouple from Israel completely” and called U.S. foreign aid to Israel “treason.”

Bilzerian said he would relocate to Florida if elected.

Marjorie Taylor Greene Weighs In

The dispute drew commentary from former GOP Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who has faced accusations of antisemitism throughout her time in Congress, posted on X that Fine’s targeting of Armenians was directly tied to his primary race.

“This is the ‘Armenian’ that Randy Fine is talking about when he says Armenians should not be in Congress,” she wrote. “Dan Bilzerian is also primarying Zionist First Randy Fine so naturally Randy said Armenians are antisemitic [sic].” Greene noted Armenia is 94 percent Christian and adopted Christianity as its state religion in 301 AD.

The Broader Race

Florida’s 6th Congressional District covers a large swath of northeast and central Florida, including Palm Coast, Volusia County, and parts of Marion, Putnam, Lake, St. Johns and Flagler Counties. The Republican primary features Fine, Bilzerian, Palm Coast City Councilman Charles Gambaro, and Lake County contractor Aaron Baker. Democrats Robert Cooper II, Jennifer Jenkins, Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera, and Eric Yonce are also running.

What Happens Next

The Republican primary on August 18 will be the next major test for both candidates, with Fine holding Trump’s endorsement and the institutional support of the GOP, and Bilzerian running as a self-styled outsider against what he calls the establishment.

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7- Inside the seductive complexity of Armenia’s election maths

By Ivan Tchakarov of GlobalSource Partners

At first glance, Armenia’s upcoming elections may seem easy to dissect. They are anything but. Below the surface is a tangle of thresholds, partnerships and swing voters that makes this race a conundrum of political maths – one that, at least for now, is still tilting toward the incumbent. Two new polls released in recent weeks provide a fresh and updated look at where things stand. Crucially, they follow a two-month hiatus since the previous batch of surveys was produced, thus allowing sufficient time for alliances to harden and preferences amongst voters to coalesce. 

A subtle shift toward the incumbent

The latest EVN poll is particularly useful as it uses the same methodology as its February edition, and it shows that Civil Contract is gaining ground. Support for Prime Minister Nikol Pashiyan’s party has risen from 26.1% to 33.6%, while opposition numbers have barely nudged. Importantly, the share of undecided voters has declined somewhat, from 42% in February to (a still large) 37% in April, but remains uncomfortably high. 

This combination matters. The slight increase in backing for the incumbent indicates some consolidation of power rather than erosion of attraction. Crucially, the still-large share of undecided voters keeps the race open, suggesting a positive trend for Civil Contract, but also an outcome that is not locked in.

The three diverse simulations with final seat assignments

The most under-appreciated factor in this election is not voter sentiment, but the opaqueness of the electoral system. Armenia’s rules create a structural advantage for larger, more cohesive players. Thresholds matter. Single parties need just 4% to enter parliament while alliances face higher barriers — 8% or even 10%, depending on their size. That’s a problem for the opposition, which remains fragmented across several blocks. While three forces are almost certain to make it into parliament — Civil Contract (party), Strong Armenia (alliance), and Prosperous Armenia (party) — a fourth, the Armenia Alliance (alliance), is hovering right on the edge. Moreover, the stable majority rule dictates that 52% of seats are required for the formation of a stable government. There is still another rule that says that at least a third of parliament seats must be held by the opposition.

And this is where things start to get interesting.

In the baseline simulation, which I centre on the average of released 2026 polls, Civil Contract and the three main opposition forces make it through to the National Assembly. The exact figures indicate that, while it may not be a perfectly even split, it certainly favours the incumbent (Table 1). Civil Contract would be expected to win 54 out of the total 101 parliamentary seats — a clear majority, yet a far cry from its dominance in 2021 when it won 71 seats.

Table 1: Simulation based on average of 2026 polls suggests that four entities will enter parliament

But if Armenia Alliance slips below the threshold in a second scenario, which I generate mechanically by removing a mere 0.3% off its showing in the baseline and assigning it to the “Other” category, the maths shifts, albeit not dramatically. Civil Contract’s seat count jumps to 60, strengthening its majority in a single-party government.

The wild card in the elections are the undecided voters, and there are many of them — roughly 35-40% of the electorate. In theory, undecided voters could swing the election. In practice, the bar for doing so might be prohibitively high. 

Hence, I calculate the break-even point for the undecided voters that would allow the united opposition to claim just enough seats for a majority. Assuming a 90% voter turnout (the April EVN poll suggests that many people intend to vote), I infer what percentage of undecided voters would need to cast their lot with the opposition, so that, if united, it would get the law-mandated 52% of parliament seats. Table 2 shows that, if 73% of the undecided voters who intend to vote end up siding with the opposition, the ultimate distribution of seats will be the following: 48 for Civil Contract and 53 in total for Strong Armenia, Prosperous Armenia and Armenia Alliance. 

Table 2: 73% of undecided voters need to lean to the opposition for it to stand a chance of forming a government

This strikes me as unlikely, albeit not impossible. It may also be structurally difficult. Even if such a shift were to occur, there is no guarantee that a government can be formed as the three opposition forces may not be able to coalesce around a single program to lead Armenia. In this case, a runoff may be necessary between the two leading contenders, Civil Contract and Strong Armenia, to determine the final winner. 

What this means for policy and investors

For markets and policymakers, the message is relatively clear: continuity remains the base case, although with less political comfort and room for manoeuvre. A Civil Contract-led government is still the most likely outcome, and this would imply broad policy continuity, continued engagement with the EU and Western partners, and gradual reform rather than abrupt shifts.

Even the alternative, as unlikely as it might appear at this stage, may not be as disruptive as generally feared. Armenia’s course is pretty clear for anyone who follows the geopolitics of the region. The country is now facing a fait-accompli in the necessity of completely normalizing its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan even at conditions that it deems unjust and unfair. Losing the 2020 war, the emptying of Artsakh, and the weakening of its ally Russia may have essentially taken any suspense out of the elections. Even if the opposition wins, it will have to more or less continue the policy of this government. The 4th republic and Real Armenia slogans represent the varnished and well packaged submission of Armenia to its eastern and western neighbors, and one should not necessarily be critical of it as it has little other choice. This is arguably best Armenians can get (if they are lucky) at this point in history.

Ivan Tchakarov is partner for the Caucasus and Central Asia at GlobalSource Partners.

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to read daily updated Armenian news and commentary,

Please send
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Website:
TheCaliforniaCourier.com

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