In a post titled “European Political Week in Yerevan”, Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov referred to the 8th Summit of the European Political Community Platform and the first RA-EU Summit, which will start on May 4 in Yerevan.

In his Telegram channel, Markedonov states that in a few days, the capital of Armenia will turn into a diplomatic pill of the European Union.

According to him, two topics dominate the coverage of upcoming events in the Russian media and social networks: European forums as influencing factors on parliamentary elections (the main electoral process of Armenia’s five-year political cycle) and the “Europeanization” of Yerevan as part of the confrontation between Russia and the “collective West”. Markedonov believes that Moscow’s harsh critics and open opponents will gather in the capital of Armenia in a few days. However, the problem, as always, is broader and more complex,” the analyst notes.

“For many years, as Andrey Sushentsov observes, the European Union was on a “strategic vacation”, relying on the first principle of NATO: “we should keep Americans in”. The Ukrainian military-political crisis introduced certain changes in this positioning. The West became somewhat less united, and the United States made stricter demands on its European allies. As a result, we got Brussels’ attempts to restart relations both within the integration union and with the European periphery. The European political community project, which will be presented to the Armenian audience with great pomp, is widely considered as an initiative that enhances the strategic role of “united Europe”.

Today, Armenia is often compared with Moldova. Indeed, in both cases, Brussels clearly indicated and supported “its” candidate. However, there is an important subtlety. Yerevan does not have a real choice between European and Eurasian integration (as Moldova had, at least until 2022),” Markedonov asserts.

Continuing, Markedonov informs that at the moment the European Union has officially opened membership negotiations with 7 countries: Albania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine, and Armenia is not on that list, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Kosovo are mentioned in the reference of the European Commission as potential candidates with which negotiations have not yet been opened, Armenia is also on that list. there is none.

“Furthermore, according to Vahan Kostanyan, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Armenia’s membership in the EU is not planned in the short term. The same was openly mentioned in the National Assembly of Armenia by the co-chairs of the EU-Armenia parliamentary partnership.

“It is obvious that Armenia will not join the European Union either at the end of this year or at the end of next year. This process requires time and certain efforts,” said one of the speakers, Neil Ushakov.

It follows from this: The leadership of Armenia is actively trying to integrate into the European political periphery, contributing to the exit of the European Union from “strategic holidays”. And where are the national interests of the country here? This question remains open. At least as a result of this process, the deterioration of relations with Russia is very likely,” says Markedonov, a Russian political scientist.

Referring to the famous British Caucasologist Thomas de Waal, Markedonov reminds us that even Thomas de Waal, who spreads Western narratives, simultaneously acknowledges the existence of dangerous challenges.

“The expert warns his colleagues about the “extremely personalized and polarizing style of Pashinyan’s management”, which can create problems for the European Union, as it happened in Georgia during Saakashvili’s presidency. The current crisis between Brussels and Tbilisi is a direct consequence of European bureaucrats’ incomplete understanding of Caucasian nuances.

Today’s approaches, as well as the personnel composition of the European Union structures, do not allow us to say that Brussels is ready to give up simple generalizations. In this situation, one should not hinder the opponent by allowing him to make mistakes. But it is no less (if not more) important not to make mistakes ourselves.

First of all, to refrain from drastic moves that are dictated by emotions, at least until the June 7, 2026 polling day. Paraphrasing the well-known aphorism, targeting the EU, it is important not to harm Armenia and its people. It should be understood that the government structures are not yet the entire Armenian electorate, and the struggle between pro-Western and pro-Eurasian tendencies will not end either on May 5 or June 8,” writes Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov.

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