On April 30, the National Defense and Security Affairs Standing Committee discussed the first reading of the draft law “On Amendments and Additions to the Law on Foreign Intelligence Activities and Foreign Intelligence Service” with an attached legislative package, which was presented by the head of the RA Foreign Intelligence Service Kristinne Grigoryan.

After the discussion in the parliament, journalists tried to get a comment from her on several issues: the war against Armenia from the outside, the possibility of war in the fall if Nikol Pashinyan is not elected.

To counter: if you don’t see any danger in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, then what explanation would you give regarding this statement about a possible war, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service limited with the following:

“The statement made in our public annual report is valid.”

And what claims were published in 2026? APS in the report:

RA external security risks. Possibility of escalation

■ As a result of intensively continued bilateral high-level negotiations in 2025, as well as the initial signing of the Washington Declaration and the Agreement “On the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations” achieved with the active involvement of US President Donald Trump on August 8, the probability of military escalation has significantly decreased, and the probability of a peaceful settlement has increased.

As a result of the comprehensive analysis of the mentioned and accompanying processes and data, we consider the military escalation of various scales between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026 due to the military-political intention to be almost unbelievable. We also consider such local actions or incidents, which are not caused by military-political intention, to be unlikely.

■ A comprehensive analysis of the service shows that in the long run The so-called “Western Azerbaijan” and “return of Western Azerbaijanis” speeches and accompanying actions promoted by Azerbaijan at the state level are a significantly negative and risky factor for peace building.։

The data of the service shows that After the Washington Declaration, Azerbaijan not only did not reduce, but also significantly intensified this propaganda, which creates significant risks for regional stability, security and long-term peace.

■ Service observations indicate that Azerbaijan’s military spending continues to increase. The basis for evaluating this issue as risky is not only the growth of net military expenditures, but also the fact that the rate of growth of military allocations significantly exceeds the rates of allocations in other sectors and in many cases, it is apparently carried out at the expense of other sectors. 

2024-2026 military and other spheres in the budget of Azerbaijan. allocations were compared to the same allocations in 2023. As a result, military allocations for 2026 increased by about 44%, and other sector allocations – by only 7.4%. In the case of 2026, there is even a slight decrease in non-military allocations compared to 2025, while military allocations for 2026 continued to increase.

■ Regional infrastructural and economic programs, although they are not the only driving force for institutionalizing peace, nevertheless, they have a great potential, on the one hand, to increase the price of military escalation in the region, and on the other hand, to offer the states of the region a strengthening of their own political and economic factor through involvement in these programs.

In the context of the last point, note that the report was published in January 2026, after which the US-Israeli war against Iran took place, and this allowed experts to talk about possible revisions of the TRIPP project.

By the way, in the context of military risks, let us add that The New Indian Express details said in connection with the results of the visit of Edward Asryan, head of the General Staff of the RA Armed Forces, to India.

Specifically, according to India’s Joint Defense Staff, “the parties have explored the possibility of establishing joint ventures in the development of military equipment,” indicating a shift from traditional buyer-seller relationships to joint development and local manufacturing partnerships.

According to the media, Armenia is studying the options of domestic production or integration of certain Indian-made defense systems.

At the same time it became known that Negotiations are underway over the cost of acquiring India’s surface-to-surface Pralay tactical quasi-ballistic missile systems as Yerevan seeks to bolster Azerbaijan’s long-range precision strike capabilities, including the Israeli-made LORA, according to Indian sources. missile deterrence.

In addition, according to the Indian media, Armenia is considering the possibility of acquiring long-range “Astra MK1” air-to-air missiles and possible modernization of its Su-30SM fighters.

Time will tell how accurate the information reported by The New Indian Express is, perhaps the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia will speak about this at some point.

By the way, we sent requests to the defense department much earlier about the modernization of Su-30s and the acquisition of new ones, but the requested information was considered a state secret. However, in January of this year, to the question of 168.am: will we be able to use the Su-30SMs with their full power one day, RA Defense Minister Suren Papikyan answered. 

 “We have enough certain weapons for Su-30SMs, but additions are also expected. The Su-30SMs are pretty good fighters, I appreciate their role very much. And I think that they can play a big role both in air defense and territorial integrity of our country.”

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