AFP: Relations between Yerevan and its traditional ally Moscow have become strained in recent years

Armenia is gearing up for two major summits that the former Soviet nation hopes will bring it closer into the European fold as Yerevan tries to cautiously loosen itself from Russia’s grasp.

Relations between Yerevan and its traditional ally Moscow have become strained in recent years, in part because Russian peacekeepers failed to intervene during military conflicts with neighbouring Azerbaijan.

Dozens of European leaders are expected to attend a summit of the European Political Community (EPC) on May 4, followed by an EU-Armenia summit the following day with the bloc’s chief officials.

For Armenia, the EU summit, the first of its kind, is about telling the European Union “we are here and we are ready”, said Olesya Vartanyan, an analyst on security issues in the South Caucasus.

Under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia has formally pursued a strategy of what he calls “diversification”, in which the landlocked country pursues ties with both Russia and the West.

“In reality it’s a process where Armenia tries to establish relationships with the European Union,” said political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan.

The country of three million people between Europe and Asia signed a comprehensive partnership agreement with the European Union in 2017, deepening its cooperation in trade and other areas.

Last year, the country adopted a law formally declaring its intention to apply for EU membership.

When the EU’s Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos visited Armenia in March, she declared that “Armenia and the EU have never been closer”.

Angering Moscow 

But Yerevan has not yet taken the formal step of submitting an application.

Armenia is currently a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and the Moscow-led CSTO security alliance, although it froze its membership of the latter in 2024.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Armenia in April that it could not be a member of both blocs.

“It’s simply impossible by definition,” Putin told Pashinyan.

For Europe, holding the meeting in Yerevan is a purposeful choice “to counter the narrative of Russian spheres of influence and to show Vladimir Putin that these countries … do not belong to him”, Sebastien Maillard, a special adviser at the Jacques Delors Institute, told AFP.

The European Union has meanwhile dragged its feet on enlargement, with fatigue in the bloc over expansion and Ukraine, currently battling a Russian invasion, a priority.

“We know countries, for example, Western Balkans, who are already in negotiation with the European Union for decades,” said Iskandaryan.

It could take decades for Armenia to become a member, he said.

Opinion polls show most Armenians are in favour of European integration, while support for Russia has dramatically fallen.

But many are sceptical about whether joining the EU is realistic and worried about further provoking Moscow.

“Everyone understands that Europe’s goal isn’t really to help us, but to push Russia out of the region,” Armine Vanyan, a 52-year-old psychologist told AFP in Yerevan.

“There will be lots of statements about Europe being close to Armenia and ready to help, and then they’ll leave. After that, Russia will probably get even angrier,” hairdresser Susanna Melkonyan told AFP of the upcoming summits.

Sitting in ‘both chairs’ 

Armenia’s government has taken an increasingly distant tone towards Moscow, with authorities suggesting Russia is attempting to meddle in domestic politics.

But Russia has no incentive to walk away from Armenia, analysts say.

With Georgia’s domestic politics torn over the issue of Russian influence and Azerbaijan forging closer ties with Europe and Turkey, Armenia is still Moscow’s closest ally in the Caucasus.

If Russia cuts economic ties with Armenia, “they will lose the last instrument to impact the region,” said Iskandaryan.

For now, Armenia is trying to sit on “both chairs at the same time”, said Vartanyan.

On the streets of Yerevan, many are realistic about where Armenia fits in the geopolitical struggle.

“We all know Armenia won’t be joining the EU anytime soon — not today, not tomorrow, not in the near future. But closer ties could help us become more independent from Russia,” said Manush Ghevondyan, a 58-year-old out-of-work accountant.

“At the same time, it shouldn’t happen too abruptly or at the cost of making Russia an enemy.”

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