The upcoming elections in Armenia, during which the next prime minister will be appointed, may have significant consequences for the European Union, particularly in the context of its fragile relations with Russia. writes Brussels Signal.

The June 7 vote may mean a decisive geopolitical shift. This can create a new western turn in the post-Soviet space.

Officials of the RA government talk more and more often about the European aspirations of the country. Pashinyan’s victory in the upcoming elections will likely strengthen this direction, bringing Armenia closer to the EU and strengthening its ongoing geopolitical realignment towards the West.

The EU has expressed its support for Armenia’s current trajectory and its pro-European orientation.  Against this background, 2 forms of strong competition emerge. on the one hand, internal opposition forces. A section of the public, religious circles and political opposition is mobilizing against the government’s current path, while some international observers are increasingly warning of the perceived illiberal drift at home that this new geopolitical path is said to be based on.

At the political level, opposition forces argue that while the government advocates closer alignment with the EU and the US, Turkey, Armenia’s historical rival and Azerbaijan’s main ally, effectively represents Western interests in the region as a NATO member.

From this point of view, the combination of the turn towards the West and the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan risks turning Armenia into a Turkish protectorate, undermining its sovereignty. For many, Russia’s continued presence in the region is still seen as a counterweight that prevents over-dependence on Ankara.

At the level of political freedoms, instead, significant contradictions have arisen over recent developments related to the Armenian Apostolic Church.

The Church has historically acted as the main defender of the Armenian language, culture and collective continuity. In recent months, the Armenian government has arrested several high-ranking Church figures amid criticism of the authorities and government claims that some sections of the church hierarchy are aligned with Russian interests.

For the current government, the influence of the Church is increasingly viewed from a political and geopolitical perspective.

When sending reports to the US Congress at the end of 2025, human rights defenders warned that the actions against high-ranking members of the Armenian Apostolic Church could be considered political pressure against the background of the intensification of the internal power struggle. Similarly, Armenian and diaspora-related organizations have criticized what they see as a weakening of checks and balances, arguing that increased executive influence over the judiciary and religious matters could run counter to Armenia’s obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights.

The outcome of the June 2026 elections could be decisive in determining Armenia’s long-term geopolitical trajectory, which Pashinyan frames as a fundamental choice between war and peace.

The opposition, most of which is united around the Church, instead views the vote as a matter of national security.

The stakes for the EU are equally delicate. how to combine the strategic support of Armenia’s geopolitical reorientation with the risk that this very trajectory may be accompanied by an increase in internal institutional concentration and democratic instability?

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