The upcoming parliamentary elections promise to be unprecedented in the domestic political life of Armenia, especially in the context of complex geopolitical developments. Will these elections become the breakthrough and, as many characterize it, “the most geopoliticized” in our recent history? What influence can external forces and neighboring countries have on Armenia’s sovereign decisions, and what is the goal of the newly emerging discourse of combating “hybrid threats”?
Does the society choose a new model of the state or does it unwittingly become the scene of external conflicts? VERELQtried to clarify these and other key issues by talking to a political scientist Suren Surenyantsi with
Suren Surenyants is in the photo, the source is from Surenyants Facebook page
VERELQ: Mr. Surenyants, there is a widespread opinion among society and political circles that the next parliamentary elections expected in Armenia will be the most geopoliticized in our recent history, that is, the collision and influence of foreign forces on this process will be unprecedented. Do you agree with this view, and if so, why?
Suren Surenyants. Yes, I agree. Moreover, I would say that it will also be the most civilized election. Since the September 21, 1991 independence referendum, these are perhaps the most turning-point elections.
On the one hand, there is a question of choosing a new model of the state. The problem is highly aggravated, because after the painful defeat of the Artsakh war, the concept of the Third Republic, which was based on the 1991 referendum, essentially no longer exists. We see how the struggle of different models and ideas of the state is going on.
On the other hand, unfortunately, there is deep geopolitical tension. This became especially evident after the European Union created an institutional tool to intervene in Armenia’s internal life. I am talking about the mandate of their new mission in Armenia.
VERELQ: Do you mean the new mission or support program of the European Union, which is called to help Armenia fight against “hybrid threats”?
Suren Surenyants. Yes, absolutely true. In my opinion, it is not a mission aimed at the proper organization of elections, but an institutional instrument of intervention. The European Union does not even hide the fact that it is transferring its dispute and conflict with Russia to the territory of Armenia. Naturally, this will be followed by Russia’s opposition. We all saw it at the recent Putin-Pashinyan meeting…
VERELQ: Are we talking about Russia’s latest harsh reactions, the statements of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk and the comments of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov?
Suren Surenyants. Yes, I mean the meeting on April 1, which was followed by the voluminous article of Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk in the TASS agency, then Peskov’s comments, etc.
In addition, Ankara’s and especially Baku’s interference is clearly present. In all their public statements, they essentially connect the upcoming parliamentary elections with the supposed constitutional referendum in Armenia, demanding to change our Mother Law. In this regard, unfortunately, we are dealing with multi-layered external interference and geopolitical conflict.
VERELQ: And what effect will this external geopolitical clash have on Armenia’s internal electoral struggle? We are already seeing parties registering to participate in the elections, and soon the official election campaign will actually start. Do you think it will seriously affect the process?
Suren Surenyants. As a result of all that, the very content of the elections is overshadowed, while the elections are primarily about the organization of the country’s internal life and the sovereign decision of the people. If geopolitical factors influence the electoral process to this extent, it leads to the disruption of the institution of manifestation of the sovereign will of the society and weakening of the state’s subjectivity.
Such examples are numerous. For example, recently Moldova emerged from its electoral processes with a highly polarized society. two social poles were clearly formed there, with a geopolitical, West-Russia characteristic. The same can be said about other post-Soviet countries that have adopted this model. In general, it affects the legitimacy of the electoral process, the country’s independence and level of sovereignty.
VERELQ: And why are you convinced that this program of the European Union is an institutional tool for interfering in our internal affairs? Armenian authorities and European officials claim that the European Union is simply working with the state and is not coming to disturb, but to strengthen our state institutions.
Suren Surenyants. Everything would be very wonderful and right, if there were not two big “buts”.
The first “but” is again the visible example of Moldova. There, we witnessed how political parties that were not pleased with Brussels or the Moldovan authorities were simply pushed out of the electoral process for geopolitical reasons. There was a similar case before that, when the Constitutional Court of Moldova removed the favorite of the first round of elections from the race. Later, it turned out that sufficient and credible facts were not presented to the Constitutional Court, but by the time it was found out, the matter was over. This is the specific case we are dealing with.
The basis of my second claim is the document approved by the European Union. While the mission has not yet arrived, the document clearly identifies from the beginning the specific country from which these hybrid threats allegedly come.
VERELQ: And that country, you assume, is clearly fixed as Russia?
Suren Surenyants. Yes, and this is where the geopolitical issue comes to the fore, not ensuring the quality of the elections. If it was really about impartiality and impartiality, then the fight against hybrid threats should be fixed without targeting specific centers or countries. Especially in the case of Armenia, the real threats are much more realistic and expected from two other neighboring countries than from Russia.
VERELQ: Do you mean Turkey and Azerbaijan?
Suren Surenyants. Of course.
VERELQ: And the last question, Mr. Surenyants. If the European Union clearly states in its statements where the threats come from and which country (Russia) they want to help us fight against, the Armenian authorities often avoid specifying a clear addressee in their public speech. They simply say, “there are hybrid threats, we have to fight them.” Is this a reading of the parties on the same phenomenon or something else?
Suren Surenyants. I am almost sure that this is not a misreading, but the Armenian government is simply addressing different texts to the domestic audience and Brussels. A standard text is presented to our society, as if this is being done to increase the quality of the elections, and the European Union, to put it bluntly, is being asked to save them from the so-called Russian threats. In other words, the problem here lies in the dualistic, dualistic and not so honest behavior of the Armenian authorities, not in interpretations.
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