While there are conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran about the possible extension of the ceasefire and the resumption of the second round of negotiations, the new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz prove that the “neither war nor peace” situation is unstable and can turn into military operations at any moment.

The targeting of three more cargo ships by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the detention of two of them is a clear signal that Tehran is not ready to make concessions under the US naval blockade. Moreover, it is a clear message that Tehran will respond to every step of the US, and it was a response to the earlier arrest of a ship under the Iranian flag by the US.

Despite serious political mistakes in the Middle East, Washington continues to play up its so-called peace-loving image, once again referring to the Armenia-Azerbaijan agreements.  Steve Witkoff, the special representative of the US president, at the Real Estate Impact annual conference held at the University of Miami, referring to the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement process, announced that Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement in just six weeks.

“We concluded that agreement within six weeks. They (Azerbaijan and Armenia) fought for 37 years and now they are best friends. By the way, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev are now good friends. US President Donald Trump brought them closer. It is quite remarkable,” said Wittkoff.

For the expert community, the future of the Yerevan-Baku Washington agreements, in particular TRIPP, remains uncertain against the backdrop of the Iran war, although the RA authorities claim that the parties are working.

The latest developments around Iran and the new wave of regional instability are directly affecting the pace of implementation of the TRIPP project. The main idea of ​​TRIPP is to ensure uninterrupted and safe communication between East and West, which has become a rather difficult problem in the current conditions of the region.

Large infrastructure projects require large investments and long-term sustainability. Under these circumstances, although there are many countries interested in TRIPP, as RA Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan recently claimed, the USA and the above-mentioned countries condition their substantive steps on the end of the war with Iran. Uncertainty forces donor organizations to take a wait-and-see position, which slows down funding flows and, consequently, follow-up.

In conversation with us Russian analyst Konstantin Simonov said that if the war situation around Iran continues, the implementation of TRIPP will also be delayed.

According to him, it is a well-known fact that transport projects develop rapidly only where there is predictability and stable peace. And in this case, according to him, there are no such prerequisites.

“There is a war in Iran, regardless of the extension of the ceasefire, the situation is explosive, the probability of reaching an agreement is quite low, in addition, Iran has an attitude towards the implementation of American projects near its borders. Therefore, I think that Yerevan and Washington continue technical discussions at a certain level, but the practical stage, in my opinion, may be delayed.” said the analyst.

In addition, the expert believes that the success of TRIPP implies multilateral cooperation, where the West, Central Asia and the South Caucasus should act in harmony.

“However, the prolongation of the conflict over Iran pushes regional players to caution and polarization. “When the region, especially Iran, is at war, the security priorities in neighboring countries come first, and all decisions are made based on these considerations,” said Simonov.

The Russian analyst believes that this war, its possible outcome, as well as further regional and geopolitical developments can also affect the implementation of such an important geopolitical logistics project.

“As it is known, Russia is also not enthusiastic about that project, Iran is against it, and it is difficult to say how the issues will be raised after the end of the war. It is not excluded that nothing will change, but it is also not excluded that there will be changes, and Iran will raise the issues much more acutely. Therefore, this is a project, the implementation of which really depends on the Iran war, both from a geopolitical and technical and economic point of view.” he said.

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