Alexei Shevtsov, the deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said the South Caucasus country would lose its tariff-free access to the Russian market, a significant discount on the price of Russian natural gas imported by it as well as many Russian tourists. The Armenian economy would shrink considerably as a result, he said.

Shevtsov noted similar warnings that were publicly issued by Russian President Vladimir Putting during his April 1 meeting with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian. Putin said, in particular, that the Armenian government’s further drift to the EU is “not compatible” with Armenia’s continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a Russian-led trade bloc. He also stressed that the Russian gas price for Armenia is set well below the international market-based levels.

“Indeed, an association agreement with the European Union, which is a mandatory condition for joining the EU, cannot be concluded if Armenia remains a party to the EEU treaty at that point,” Shevtsov told journalists. “Accordingly, it would be necessary to withdraw from the treaty.”

“In practice, Armenian farmers, including alcohol producers, would have to look for new export markets,” he said, according to Russian news agencies. “With the introduction of customs duties, their goods would cease to be competitive. Freight transport costs would rise while investments would be significantly reduced. Yerevan would also have to forget about preferential supplies of energy.”

According to Armenian government data, Russia accounted for 35.8 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade last year, followed by China (12.3 percent) and the EU (11.7 percent). Its share has increased significantly during Pashinian’s eight-year rule.

Shevtsov indicated that Moscow would also curb the influx of Russian tourists who he said bring Armenia’s services sector $1 billion in annual revenue

“Given that tourism accounts for approximately 13.5 percent of Armenia’s GDP and that almost a quarter of its officially employed population works in this sector, this would deal a severe blow to the country’s economy and its residents,” he said.

Russian officials have regularly issued such warnings since Pashinian’s government enacted last year a law calling for the “start of a process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union.” Moscow is doubling down on them in the run-up to Armenian parliamentary elections.

In their election manifesto published late last week, Pashinian and his Civil Contract party made clear that despite these warnings, they will continue to pursue Armenia’s eventual membership in the EU if they win the June 7 polls.

Yerevan is due to host on May 4-5 a first-ever EU-Armenian summit viewed by local analysts as a pre-election show of EU support for Pashinian and his pro-Western foreign policy. The 27-nation bloc reinforced this perception on Tuesday when it approved the dispatch of another EU mission tasked with helping the Armenian government cope with “hybrid threats” emanating from abroad, presumably Russia.

The EU already decided last month to send a separate “hybrid rapid response team” to Yerevan for the upcoming elections. It deployed a similar mission in Moldova for the parliamentary elections held there last September. Two Moldovan opposition parties deemed pro-Russian were disqualified from the vote won by the former Soviet republic’s pro-Western leadership.

Armenia’s leading opposition groups, notably a bloc led by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetian, are concerned that they too could be barred from running in the polls. Putin warned Pashinian against such bans during their April 1 talks in Moscow.

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