A few days ago, Nikol Pashinyan gathered a group of businessmen and hung noodles in their ears, talked about the economic “miracles” recorded by the government, talked about entering a new period of economic development, conquering and setting new horizons, forgetting that he confronted the same big business. What Nikol Pashinyan intends to do, the future of business is at risk and now business will have to make a choice about its future.

Nikol Pashinyan does not say openly, but he does not hide that he is going to withdraw Armenia from EAEU. What this means for business, these people understand better than anyone else, regardless of what Nikol Pashinyan will say or not.

Nikol Pashinyan does not say that he will deprive businesses from the EAEU market, but everyone sees what he is doing. When they ask, he tries to give an evasive answer, saying that when the time comes, we will make a decision. He avoids saying it directly, but in the footnote everyone understands where all this is leading. The goal is to leave the EAEU and join the European Union, although we have been convinced many times that no one in the EU is waiting for Armenia.

As much as they do not expect Armenia in the EU, the rulers of Armenia have made their choice long ago. There is no doubt as to who will be the first victims on the way to that election. the people and the business will be the victims.

The people and the business will bear the economic and social consequences of such a decision when they face serious problems. But then it will be too late. That is why it is necessary to think about one’s own future now, until others decide their fate for them. Even if it continues like this, even the authorities will not be the decision-makers. Neither will wait until they decide whether to stay or go. Without them, that decision will be made and Armenia will be faced with the facts.

In that case, the problem is not so much about Armenia’s high dependence on strategic goods imported from EAEU. The problem is about losing the largest market for the sale of Armenian products without the creation of alternative markets.

The largest market for the sale of Armenian products, including agricultural products, is the Eurasian Economic Union and, first of all, Russia. Those engaged in the production of agricultural products, especially those who took loans, set up production, built greenhouses in the hope that they will be able to sell their products in those markets, have a serious reason to think. The main market for Armenia’s greenhouse economy products is the Eurasian Economic Union and Russia. If they lose that market, the greenhouses will be closed everywhere, and the greenhouse owners will find themselves under loans. We still do not say that the greenhouse economy today is able to survive exclusively due to the cheap imported Russian gas. It is not difficult to say what will happen if Russian gas becomes more expensive.

Today, most of the products of Armenia’s processing industry and at least one third of the local products in general are sold in EAEU markets. In the case of being left out of the EAEU, there will always be reasons to limit or prohibit the sale of Armenian products in the markets of the EAEU countries. Not only do these products have no alternative markets, but it takes a long time to find them. Before finding them, you should think about ensuring their competitiveness. The competitiveness of Armenian products does not always allow to get sales opportunities in other markets. The EU is not an alternative in that sense.

Even after last year it was decided to subsidize customs duties for the supply of Armenian goods to EU countries, it did not have a significant impact on export volumes. If before that, supplies to EU countries amounted to 611 million dollars, after the subsidy they increased by only 55 million dollars. Almost as much as the provided subsidy.

At this rate, it will take tens of years to compensate for the possible losses of the EAEU markets.

Only the export of Armenian products to the Russian market fluctuates around 1.5 billion dollars per year. In the event that supplies to the EU markets do not even reach 700 million dollars. Last year, even after the subsidy from the state budget in terms of customs duties, they amounted to barely 666 million dollars.

At least twice less than the supplies of the Russian market alone.

By the way, in recent years, when the political government adopted the policy of EU integration, the supplies of Armenian goods to the markets of the European Union countries have even been reduced. 2018 More Armenian goods were exported from Armenia to the EU than now, 7 years later. In seven years, there has been no absolute movement, one thing has also been recorded, the volume of export of Armenian goods has decreased.

According to official data, 666 million dollars of goods were supplied to the markets of EU countries last year. In the event that in 2018 supplies amounted to 683 million dollars, 23 million dollars more than after 7 years.

Even in 2017 Almost as many goods were exported from Armenia as are exported now.

At one time, the share of exports to EU countries reached up to 27-28 percent, now it is barely 7-8 percent.

This is how economic relations with EU countries have been deepened.

Given the current opportunities and capabilities of the Armenian economy, the EU cannot be a substitute for the EAEU market. This may not concern Nikol Pashinyan and members of the CP, but all those businesses that are connected with the EATM sales markets cannot help but be concerned. That is why they are forced to think seriously about the future of their business before the upcoming elections.

No matter how Nikol Pashinyan declares that there are no problems with EAEU and especially with Russia, everyone understands that this is not the case. Those problems are already visible today, and they will deepen. It is obvious that if this continues, the issue of staying or not in EAEU will not depend on the decision of the Armenian authorities, as Nikol Pashinyan says, but will be sold independently of us. What the current rulers of Armenia are doing will accelerate these processes. And before it’s too late, we haven’t reached the point of irreversibility, business is forced to make a choice.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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