The public dissatisfied with the authorities in Armenia is not homogeneous. Therefore, it is quite natural that the opposition field is also multi-layered. it allows you to work with voters with different views and avoid the primitive formula of “black and white” imposed by the government. About this VERELQin a conversation with the political commentator Hakob Badalyan, analyzing the current tactics of the Armenian opposition and the real chances of success in the upcoming elections.
It is discussed in the interview Սամվել Կարապետյանի to the factor as a new and influential player who, according to the analyst, significantly complicates the work of government propaganda with his socio-economic emphasis. Hakob Badalyan with conviction, despite a certain public apathy, the authorities’ noticeable anxiety and harsh rhetoric testify to a certain effectiveness of the opposition’s actions. The conversation about these and other issues of the opposition field’s tactics is below.
Hakob Badalyan is in the photo, the source is 168.am
VERELQ. Mr. Badalyan, let’s talk about the latest developments and opportunities in the opposition field. Recently, some activity has been noticeable, especially after the rally initiated by businessman Samvel Karapetyan on April 11. In your opinion, what are the current processes in the opposition camp, what are the main directions, and do you see real chances that the opposition can win the upcoming elections?
Hakob Badalyan. From the point of view of the processes, the opposition seems to continue to work in several directions. Two or three main formats of guiding frameworks have been developed. It’s hard to say whether this was a pre-arranged tactic or it just happened that way, but given public sentiment, this is perhaps the most optimal option. The government’s response also testifies to that. For example: (Prime Minister of RA) Nikol Pashinyan tries to present all these forces as one common unit, force acting with one purpose and one package. This shows that the multi-branch format worries the government. From the government’s actions, it can be assumed that there is a certain effectiveness in the actions of the opposition, therefore, the opposition certainly has chances of success.
Another question is how that opportunity will be used. There are about two months left until the elections, and the government, in its turn, will try to neutralize the trump cards of the opposition.
VERELQ. Sociological polls also show that the protestant electorate is quite large, although at the moment some people are apathetic. Is it really possible for different echelons of the opposition to issue separate messages (Samvel Karapetyan, Robert Kocharyan, Gagik Tsarukyan) to activate people and satisfy their various expectations?
If the government switches to harsh methods, the use of legal mechanisms, or blackmail rhetoric (for example, the thesis that if they are not there, there will be a war), it means that they see the result of the widespread work of the opposition with the public. It is difficult to assess how effective it is. There are two means of measurement: the results of the elections, which are still two months away, and public opinion polls. However, I am skeptical about public opinion polls published in Armenia for the simple reason that the society itself does not trust them, and it is very relative whether the respondents answer honestly. The effectiveness is visible, but whether its dynamics and volume are sufficient for a high probability of success is still uncertain.
VERELQ. There are two main approaches to the tactics of the opposition’s struggle today. Some circles, in particular, the third Serzh Sargsyan’s political wing, suggest to everyone, especially the second president Robert Kocharyan, to withdraw from the election and create a polarized, “black and white” electoral environment, where the fight will be exclusively between Samvel Karapetyan and Nikol Pashinyan. They believe that in this way the people will make a clear choice in favor of the opposition. To what extent is this the right tactic, and does such extreme polarization actually increase the opposition’s chances?
Hakob Badalyan. I think that the image of our society is not at all “black and white”, and the opposition electorate is not homogeneous in its assessments. I don’t know what that suggestion is based on, maybe there are some in-depth studies, but I repeat, I am skeptical about this.
For example, a significant number of opposition-minded people may vote Samvel Karapetyan, but under no circumstances vote if he cooperates Robert Kocharyan with. Or on the contrary, there are people who trust Robert Kocharyan and will not vote for any other oppositionist if the latter withdraws his candidacy. The issue here is not only Karapetyan or Kocharyan. Today, in my opinion, the opposition electorate constitutes an overwhelming majority, but this majority differs in its attitude towards individual political forces. That is why artificial “black and white” is a non-working model. On the contrary, it is much more effective to provide a broad front in different formats to bring voters to polling stations.
It is no coincidence that it is Nikol Pashinyan who strives to get that “black and white” image. In that case, he will be able to use the still somewhat viable formula of “past-present”. If everyone unites and supports Samvel Karapetyan, a green way will be opened for Pashinyan to present him as the ambassador of the “formers”. Now Pashinyan cannot do this, because Karapetyan is not a “former” in the classical sense. although he worked with the previous authorities, he also worked with Nikol Pashinyan with the same success until the last years, when the politics of Armenia changed radically.
In addition, it is not possible to involve Karapetyan in the thesis of “looting”. The authorities are trying to make propaganda manipulations using the topic of Armenia’s electric grids, but it doesn’t work, because it is clear that he has accumulated his wealth in Russia. For any sane person, presenting him as a “robber of Armenia” cannot be convincing. But if the opposition unites around him with a single front, Pashinyan will get fertile ground to label him as a representative of “looters”.
VERELQ. Summarizing our conversation, I would like to ask you to highlight what are the main weaknesses and strengths of the opposition at this time, in the current election cycle.
Hakob Badalyan. The downside, in general, is the missed time. The conversation with the public with the logic and content, which is carried out only in recent months, should have started much earlier. For example, the parliamentary opposition wasted too much time on acting according to the logic of “black and white” confrontation, when it was obvious that it would have no other effect than to support Pashinyan’s positions. The loss of time is conventionally a weakness, because through consistent work it is possible to fill the gap, but it still makes itself felt.
As for the strengths, today the greatest advantage of the opposition in the collective sense is the involvement of a new player, Samvel Karapetyan. As I mentioned, this has created serious problems for Pashinyan in playing out his traditional formulas. This does not mean that the opposition will achieve guaranteed success thanks to this strong point, but it has indeed strengthened the positions of the opposition. It is especially important that Karapetyan does not touch on traditional, worn-out topics in his work with society, but emphasizes the socio-economic potential of the country, public solidarity and the logic of changing Armenia’s internal qualities. This, in my estimation, strengthens the opposition field in a collective sense, although naturally there are also many other factors that affect the general picture.
—