The Iran-US indirect talks that took place in Islamabad the other day were in the center of attention of the international community as a prelude to possible de-escalation, but the situation created after the meeting proves deep diplomatic stagnation. Despite Pakistan’s mediation efforts, the parties failed to overcome mutual distrust. According to the assessment of international experts, Islamabad tried to become a new platform for dialogue, but the background of regional conflicts and the existing differences in principle between Washington and Tehran turned the negotiations into simply recording positions, which led to a visible freezing of the process.

US President Donald Trump, referring to the regional developments in the last two days, once again made self-confident statements, seemingly covering up his unwillingness to further war with Iran. In a conversation with Fox Business journalist Maria Bartiromo, he stated that the war is over.

According to Trump, Iran is now in a state where full-scale war is no longer on the agenda due to weakness. He specifically stated:

“Iran is bankrupt… they are in no condition to go to war.” According to Trump, it is the tough American pressure that has neutralized the risk of a major conflict, creating a situation where the probability of war has practically been zeroed out, because Tehran simply “can’t go to war”.

The Iranian side, after the meetings in Islamabad, maintains a cautious but tough rhetoric. The official representatives of Tehran stated that they sat down at the negotiation table only with the agenda of “national interests and lifting of sanctions”. According to the statements of the Iranian side, “The White House must abandon the language of maximum pressure and return to the field of reality if it expects stable diplomatic progress.” Iran has made it clear that despite optimistic statements from Washington, they are not going to make concessions regarding their sovereignty and defense programs, which creates a sense of stagnation in the negotiations.

At the moment, there is an obvious stagnation in the negotiation process, a diplomatic pause or “frozen state”, where neither side wants to take the first step in order not to disrupt their own strategic calculations.

Ultimately, the Islamabad talks showed that without political will and willingness to make mutual concessions, such meetings remain mere formalities. The international community is in a state of waiting, because this stagnation can be either a threshold for a new escalation, or a continuation of a long “cold” confrontation, where the negotiating table is simply a tool to gain time or check the opponent.

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Victor Nadein-Raevsky said that the American side does not want to continue the war, but in fact would like to go to a tougher level of economic and technological isolation of Iran. The success of this, in his opinion, will lead to further deepening of the influence of the “Turkish axis”, which is a challenge for Armenia. As for Iran, according to the analyst, for Iran, the current stage of confrontation with the USA is perceived as a victory of “strategic confrontation”.

“When Tehran feels that it is no longer losing or yielding to Washington, its behavior becomes more confident and aggressive. At this stage, Iran will try to deepen its regional autonomy. Convinced that American sanctions and military threats no longer have the previous destructive effect, Tehran will try to move on to building a regional security system “without the West”. This means a sharp increase in Iran’s role in the South Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. Iran will try to become such a “key state” that it will be impossible not to take into account. Secondly, Iran will strengthen cooperation with Russia and China in the developing world order. This may lead to Iran becoming more intransigent regarding its nuclear and missile programs, considering that its balance of power is already sufficient to restrain the US and dictate its own interests,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

According to him, maintaining neutrality continues to be vital for Armenia. “Iran, I think, will more decisively defend the integrity of its northern borders as one of its last geopolitical strongholds. At the same time, Armenian diplomacy should be ready for demands from the Trump administration, which will fit into the US regional policy of “maximum pressure” and containment of Iran. Considering the fact that the Trump administration values ​​agreements with Yerevan and Baku, this threat should not be ruled out, because the US is strengthening its influence and advancing its political plans, and we know what place Iran has in those plans,” he said.

—