On April 2 TASS:In an interview with , Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Alexei Overchuk stated that the signing of the agreement on the implementation of the “Trump Road” project violated the regional balance of the South Caucasus.

“The problem is that these signatures caused deeper processes. They violated the regional balance that existed since 1828, when the Treaty of Turkmencha was signed.” he justified, recalling that “at that time, the lands of the Erivan and Nakhichevan khanates were ceded to the Russian Empire, and the border was established along the geographical border along the Araks River.”

“Since then, in general, this is a peaceful border, which was ensured by the agreements reached between the two big neighbors.” stressed Overchuk.

The Deputy Prime Minister of Russia continued that Russia’s participation in the tripartite working group of Deputy Prime Ministers allowed for a balanced discussion of the interests of all present countries, taking into account the sovereignty, jurisdiction, territorial integrity and economic interests of Armenia.

“Azerbaijan was in a constructive mood, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, which at that time was already conducting negotiations with the EAEU on the mutual opening of markets, did not feel the threats brought by inviting the Americans to the northern coast of Araks,” he said.

It should be noted that the tripartite on November 9-10, 2020 from the announcement then, the 9th point of which refers to the unblocking of all economic and transport links in the region, two more Armenia-Russia-Azerbaijan trilateral declarations be signed.

In particular, approved in Moscow on January 11, 2021 statement mentions the creation of a working group dealing with the issue of unblocking.

“1. We support the implementation of point 9 of the statement of November 9, 2020 regarding the unblocking of all economic and transport links in the region. President of the Russian Federation V.V. to Putin’s proposal.

2. The working group will hold its first session by January 30, 2021, and based on its results, it will draw up The list of the main directions of works resulting from the implementation of point 9 of the announcement, defining railway and road communications as priorities,as well as Republic of Azerbaijan, Republic of Armenia and Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Parties) will define other directions by agreement between them,” the document states.

On November 26, 2021, the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia will meet together in Sochi statement were accept, where, in fact, the emphasis was again on the process of unblocking, but also on the process of demarcation.

«We highly appreciated 2021. The activity of the Trilateral Working Group on unblocking all economic and transport links of the region established under the joint chairmanship of the Deputy Prime Ministers of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Republic of Armenia and the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of the Russian Federation in accordance with the statement of January 11. We emphasized the need to start concrete projects as soon as possible to reveal the economic potential of the region.”

And though regarding TRIPP and trade corridors in the region In the context of the article by Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, former Minister of Foreign Affairs In a conversation with Shiraz Khachatryan, an expert of the “Henaket” analytical center, recently we have touched on the role of regional players, the transforming role of Russia and the strengthening role of Turkey. However, the footnotes of the Russian Deputy Prime Minister’s statement were not addressed at that time, which we tried to do this time:

Shiraz Khachatryan, expert of “Henaket” analytical center this time we tried to understandլ՝ What does Overchuk’s reference to the Treaty of Turkmencha mean? What does this interesting statement by a Russian official mean about both Syunik and Nakhichevan?

“In my opinion, Overchuk’s statement is not so much a historical excursus as it is a political message to regional and major actors. When he says that the TRIPP agreements have upset the balance established since 1828, he actually means the regional order, which was based on the borders of Russian and Iranian influence for a long time, and later on the treaty system mediated by Moscow. The mention of the Treaty of Turkmencha here is not accidental. The Russian side is trying to show that the current border and political architecture of the South Caucasus was not formed today, but has a two-century deep historical-legal basis, the circumvention of which is perceived in Moscow as a change in the arrangement of forces to their detriment. One of the important layers of this announcement is not only TRIPP, but also the topic of Nakhijevan. You know that Azerbaijan has recently abolished the significance of the Moscow and Kars treaties of 1921 regarding Nakhichevan, weakening their references in its internal legal framework. But the special status of Nakhichevan as a part of Azerbaijan with external guarantees was confirmed by those agreements. In other words, when Baku tries to push those bases to the background, it is considered in Moscow not as a matter of internal change of the given country, but as an attempt to rethink the entire regional legal and political structure. That is why Overchuk’s words referring to previous agreements, in my opinion, mean several things.

First, Russia openly says that it does not consider new communication projects purely on the economic level.

Second, Moscow warns that it considers the new balance being built in the South Caucasus without its participation to be problematic.

And third, this is a reaction not only to American involvement, but also to Turkey’s growing role and Azerbaijan’s attempts to redact the previous treaty bases. In short, Overchuk is trying to say that the issue of changing the status of Nakhichevan or TRIPP are not new processes or projects in the Russian perception, but are a blow to the historical and political system on which Moscow has built its influence in the region for decades. 168.amShiraz Khachatryan explained in a conversation with

The fact that Aliyev decided to limit the autonomy of Nakhichevan, we wrote just last year. We we have informed also about the process of turning Nakhijevan into a tax and administrative free zone and referred to its risks.

Shiraz Khachatryan gave a positive answer to the question: to what extent can the topics of internal legal change in Nakhijevan and the issue of the road passing through Syunik be considered in the same dimension, or is it possible?

“Yes, the topic of internal legal changes in Nakhichevan and the issue of the road passing through Syunik can be considered on the same military-political level. Outwardly, they are different processes, but in reality they are two sides of the same transformation. Overchuk’s statements are remarkable for this very reason. When he talks about the Syunik road, the tripartite working group and the “disturbed balance”, it becomes clear that Moscow is unhappy not only with the specific project, but also with the fact that Armenia is trying to move in such formats where the role of Russia is either reduced or bypassed. In this context, the legal changes around Nakhichevan and the topic of the road passing through Syunik are connected.

If, on the one hand, Baku is trying to redefine the foundations of Nakhichevan’s status by reducing the importance of previous contractual references, then on the other hand, it is promoting a new communication regime, which should operate under new power conditions. In other words, in one case, the legal basis is revised, in the other case, its geopolitical continuation is created. For Russia, this is a general process with the general picture of a weakening of its role, an increase in the influence of Turkey, a deepening of American involvement, a more independent play of Azerbaijan and the often incomprehensible behavior of Armenia. That is why the mention of Iran in Overchuk’s speech is not accidental either. Moscow is actually implying that under the conditions of the previous balance, Tehran did not feel threatened as long as Russia was involved as a mediator and guarantor. But now, when that system is changing, Iran’s sensitivity is naturally increasing, and the latter should advance its interests in the region in a non-passive way,” the expert said.

Let’s add that Azeri sources recently had reported that works are underway to connect the Autonomous Republic of Nakhichevan to the main energy system of Azerbaijan and to form the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Europe energy corridor.

In this context, it was informed that a high-voltage transmission line with a voltage of 330 kilovolts and a capacity of 1000 megawatts is being built, starting from “Jrakan (Jabrayil)”, and that in the next phase of the project, an additional 44 km long transmission line will be built, which will cross the “Zangezur Corridor”.

Rashad Mammadov, Ambassador of Azerbaijan to Turkey last year referred to Prospects related to “Zangezur Corridor” and report the following:

“As Nakhichevan has no land connection with Azerbaijan, we are currently supplying it with natural gas through Turkey, through the Tbilisi-Erzrum pipeline. Recently, the possibility of building a second pipeline has appeared. In other words, there is a possibility to build a gas pipeline from Zangezur to Nakhichevan. Thanks to this, it becomes possible to lay a pipeline from Nakhijevan to Kars, which will open new perspectives,” he elaborated.

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