Recently, the Iran-US negotiations, arranged with the mediation of Pakistan, in the capital Islamabad, essentially failed. Tehran’s chief negotiator, speaker of the country’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Washington failed to win Tehran’s trust. In X’s post, Ghalibaf said that his negotiating team presented “forward-looking” initiatives during discussions in Pakistan, but the United States failed to gain the confidence of the Iranian delegation.

“My colleagues in the Iranian delegation presented constructive initiatives, but at the end of this round of negotiations, the opposite side was not able to win the trust of the Iranian delegation,” the Iranian official wrote, continuing that the US understood their logic and principles, and it is time to decide whether it is able to win the trust of Iran or not.

US Vice President JD Vance also announced that after 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad, the USA and Iran could not reach an agreement on ending the war. “We had a number of meaningful discussions with the Iranians, this is the good news. The bad news is that we didn’t reach an agreement, and I think that’s much worse news for Iran than it is for the United States of America,” JD Vance said. “We simply could not reach a situation where the Iranians would accept our terms,” ​​the US vice president noted, adding that they are leaving Pakistan with a very simple offer, which is their “final and best offer.” “Let’s see if the Iranians will accept it,” he said.

Foreign Minister of Iran Abbas Araghchi for his part, referring to the negotiations, he stated that Tehran participated in the negotiations with the USA “in good faith”, but encountered “maximalism”.

“During 47 years of intensive negotiations at the highest level, Iran communicated in good faith with the United States to end the war. However, when we were just inches away from the Islamabad MoU, we encountered maximalism, shifting targets and a blockade,” Araghchi wrote on his X page, adding that lessons have not been learned, goodwill begets goodwill, enmity begets enmity.

After failed negotiations US President Trump renewed his threats, stating that the United States Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, blocking the path of all ships attempting to enter or exit.

In particular, President Trump wrote on his Truth Social social network: “And so. the meeting went well, agreement was reached on most of the points, except for the only point that was really important, the nuclear issue. From now on, the United States Navy, the best in the world, will begin the process of blocking all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that at some point “they will reach the state of ‘everyone is allowed to enter, everyone is allowed to leave’, but Iran has not allowed this to become a reality, simply declaring: “There may be a mine somewhere.” Trump reaffirmed that the US will start an operation to clear Hormuz of mines. “If an Iranian hits us or a ship there for peaceful purposes, he will end up in hell,” he said.US Central Command announced that the blockade would be implemented against ships of all countries entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The command added that it will not impede the passage of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz if they are going to or coming from non-Iranian ports.

And? British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that Great Britain will not get involved in the war with Iran and will not participate in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. “We do not support the blockade,” he said, adding that reopening the strait is vital. “In my opinion, it is vital that we open the strait and that it is fully open, and that is what we have focused all our efforts on in recent days and will continue to do,” said Starmer, in whose speech there were disagreements about the decisions made by Washington. By the way, the visit of Charles III is expected at the end of this month, on whose agenda experts also predicted the discussion of this issue.

Russian analyst Viktor Nadein-Raevsky 168.amtold that a new stage of decisions and political challenge is ripe for Trump. According to him, with the failure of these negotiations, Trump appeared under three conflicting pressures at the same time: internal, external and temporal. Obviously, in his opinion, Trump cannot easily go to either a complete deal or a complete escalation.

“All this complicates Iran’s tough positioning. At this stage, Iran acts from a more confident position: active use of regional levers, refusal of agreements that are incomplete and do not inspire confidence. Tehran is trying to change the rules of the game, forcing the USA to negotiate on terms that are not its traditional. Although the negotiations were proceeding, Israel’s actions created a “parallel front” that further complicated the success of the negotiations. For Trump, the situation is getting complicated because the negotiation levers are decreasing, Iran is not isolated, the risks are increasing. there are many multi-vector economic consequences, there are disagreements among the allies, and the US’s similar positioning towards Iran does not have many supporters in the world.

Another important factor is that the geopolitical background has changed and the US pressure mechanisms are not effective in a multipolar world. Trump’s “puddle” is complicated because he is trying at the same time to maintain tough rhetoric, avoid a long-term, large-scale war, record and announce a diplomatic victory, but these seem to be incompatible. Therefore, the situation will continue with a different rhythm of escalation, negotiation attempts, change of mediators, Iran’s tough positioning will continue as long as it feels that it is not the weak side in this confrontation,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

He believes that this is an extremely important and remarkable development for the South Caucasus. “Such unpredictable geopolitical developments involving two key states for the South Caucasus, one a regional power, the other a superpower, the confrontation between which sometimes develops unexpectedly, breaking universal expectations, should cause the right consequences. “And one of the main consequences is that in a multipolar world, it is necessary to act according to the current multipolar model of the world structure, not the previous one. This is a relevant consequence for Armenia as well. A superpower can have a goal and fail, that’s normal, and that’s what the Trump administration is facing,” said Viktor Nadein-Raevsky.

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