The growth rate of economic activity in Armenia slowed down in February. In January it was 7.6, in February it dropped to 7.2 percent.

According to the results of February, the growth rate of 2-month TAC decreased and made 7.4 percent.

But it is not even that decrease that is disturbing. There are much more worrying phenomena that show what is hidden behind these increases. Naturally, the authorities do not talk about them, because very often they are only interested in the growths that do not say anything and have no value. It is not surprising that after last year’s declines, with the growth indicators recorded in some sectors of the economy at the beginning of this year, they are trying to create the illusion of another unprecedented achievement. After the economic activity index for the first 2 months of the year was published, Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan hastened to announce that the economy is in a state of widespread high growth.

“2026 January-February indicator of economic activity in 2025. compared to the same period, it increased by 7.4 percent.

We have growth in all directions. industry – 17.2 percent, construction – 20.5 percent, foreign trade – 9.3 percent, services – 7.2 percent, trade – 3.3 percent,” wrote Gevorg Papoyan on his Facebook page.

However, as always, he avoided saying what the reason for those increases was.

The Minister of Economy responsible for 2 key sectors of the economy – industry and agriculture – was probably impressed by the high growth of the industry. In fact, 17.2 percent is a high increase. But look at what resulted in that growth. It was registered after last year’s 19.4 percent decline.

Last year’s decline was incomparably greater than this year’s growth. And that means that even after such an increase, the losses of the last year in the industry have not been recovered.

We still do not say what this growth was mainly due to. It took place due to the increase in the extraction of mineral products and the activation of re-exports of Russian gold.

At the beginning of last year, when re-exports of gold stopped, the industry went into a deep recession. At the end of the year, of course, when the re-exportable gold came to the rescue again, the situation changed a little, and even managed to avoid a fall on an annual basis.

The impact of re-exports of Russian gold on the industry also persists at the beginning of this year. This is the reason for the partial recovery after last year’s decline. Although these increases have nothing to do with the increase in actual production volumes. We are only dealing with turnover increases. But recently, that too has been threatened. As a result of the attack on Iran launched by the USA and Israel, the boiling cauldron in the region has started to have its impact on both global and regional economies. Armenia is also not without a part.

The latest published indicators of economic activity do not yet show the effects of regional developments because the conflict started later. They will happen already next month, if not months. This effect will be expressed especially on the re-exports of Russian gold, within the framework of the fact that for a long time Armenia, thanks to Russian gold, has become one of the main suppliers of precious metals to the UAE.

After the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, that supply chain was cut, and the demand for gold also fell.

We will see its impact on Armenia’s economy and, first of all, on industry in April, when the March indicators will be published. Then it will be seen, apart from talking, what has been done to increase the real productivity and resistance of our economy to external instabilities.

After a decline lasting more than a year, there has been an increase again in the field of foreign trade.

Officially, foreign trade increased by 9.3 percent in January-February.

In it, export increased by 12.6 percent, and import by 7.3 percent. And again after the deep crisis recorded in the field of foreign trade last year.

In the same period of the last year, foreign trade was simply dethroned. It was reduced by more than half. The decline in exports was much greater, reaching almost 60 percent. Import decreased by 46 percent.

It is after such deep declines that foreign trade, exports and imports have increased this year. But they are still too far from reaching the volumes of 2 years ago. The recorded increase is the result of re-exports of mineral products and again gold. And here too, most likely, we will soon witness setbacks. Although, even if it does not happen, these increases in most cases do not give reason to be happy, because they do not result from the economic developments of the country. On the contrary, they increase the dependence of economic growth on external factors. As a result, these sectors have been in constant upheaval in recent years.

So, what we see at first sight in the growth of industry and foreign trade are highly relative. Even after those increases, the losses of the previous year were not recovered.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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