Recently, Nikol Pashinyan visited the Russian Federation. The meeting, which was requested by the Armenian side, took place quite remarkably, according to some opinions, in a tense atmosphere.

The Russian side was well prepared for the match. Russian President Vladimir Putin in his speech, he addressed almost the entire palette of current topics of Armenian-Russian relations, from energy prices to EU integration, internal political tension in Armenia, limitation of pro-Russian forces, etc. After the long statements of the RA authorities regarding hybrid threats from Russia, Putin directly announced at this meeting that Russia would like all pro-Russian forces to be able to participate in the Armenian parliamentary elections.

“We always conduct a sincere dialogue with you, and we would like all political forces and politicians to be able to participate in the internal political processes. Some of them are in prison despite having Russian passports. It is your decision, we do not interfere, but in any case we would like them all to be able to participate in the internal political processes,” Putin said.

According to Putin, Armenia’s economy is developing at a good pace, exports to EAEU countries have increased 10 times in recent years. Putin claimed that Moscow is “completely calm” about the ongoing discussions on the development of RA-EU relations, but also reminded that it is impossible to be in the European Union and EAEU at the same time. The Russian president also spoke about energy carriers and announced that the price of gas in Europe exceeds $600 per 1,000 cubic meters, and Russia sells gas to Armenia for $177.50, which, according to him, is a “big and significant” difference.

Pashinyan in his turn, he responded to Putin’s observations, saying that Armenian-Russian relations will never be questioned, but also noted that as much as possible, Armenia will combine EAEU membership and EU integration agendas. He also once again expressed his displeasure with CSTO and said that before he recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan, it was done by Russian President Putin. Pashinyan also noted that persons with citizenship of another country cannot participate, run in the upcoming elections in RA and become a deputy or prime minister.

He also made a statement after the meeting Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexey Overchuk and assert that Yerevan is very close to the point after which Russia will be “forced to build” economic relations with Armenia in a different way. According to him, in case of Armenia’s accession to the European Union, Armenia will not have air communication with Russia. “Now there is no air communication with the countries of the European Union. This means that we will not have air communication with Armenia,” said the Russian Deputy Prime Minister.

According to Overchuk, the citizens of Armenia should be aware of the possible consequences of the decision taken by the official Yerevan regarding rapprochement with the European Union.

“Perhaps it sounds very harsh, but we want people in Armenia to understand that if this happens, it will happen, because the decisions of rapprochement with the European Union have been adopted,” said the Russian official.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also referred to the Pashinyan-Putin meeting, saying that the Armenian side showed understanding regarding the concerns expressed by Vladimir Putin during the meeting with Nikol Pashinyan. “The Armenian side showed that it understands the concerns expressed by Russia. We will see how relations will develop in practice,” Lavrov said in a conversation with Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin.

The expert community records that the meeting was distinguished by unusually open and direct emphasis. In addition, according to a number of assumptions, the closed part of the meeting was no less remarkable and included a much wider range of discussions than the public part. Moscow, in fact, made public what has long been discussed in Russian expert circles and behind the scenes: the political component of the gas price, the limitation of pro-Russian influence in Armenia and the need to restore that influence.

We have repeatedly mentioned that against the background of the Ukrainian war, Russia has become passive in the regions where it traditionally had influence, but at the same time, Russian circles report that the South Caucasus is not leaving Russia, moreover, there is a desire to redefine the zones of influence and try to strengthen in the regions where there are still levers. The South Caucasus, especially Armenia, continues to be one of those points, but here Russia’s influence has significantly decreased.

And obviously, the attempts to make Armenia’s foreign policy multi-vector or towards EU integration are perceived in Moscow as a loss of control. Against this background, Putin’s direct speech seemed to be aimed at announcing the “red lines” of the Russian Federation in Armenian-Russian relations. Russia’s emphasis on gas being “cheap” for Armenia is not only economic. It is a clear political impulse, a reminder of dependence.

The price of gas in Armenian-Russian relations has always been an economic privilege in exchange for political loyalty, social stability in exchange for geopolitical choice.

At this meeting, Moscow formulated the issue publicly, trying to show what Armenia will be deprived of in case of EU membership.

According to a number of reports, these public comments at the meeting were intended for the people themselves, not so much for the government.

Putin’s talk about the limitation of pro-Russian forces in Armenia was the most sensitive and controversial issue, especially in the background of active talks about hybrid threats.

However, according to everything, this reference was not accidental either, the Russian side is trying to show both the domestic and foreign audiences that it still has interests in Armenia and is ready to protect them, and it sends a signal to the RA authorities that Moscow is not going to accept the narrowing of its influence as a new norm. For Armenia, this meeting is actually a proposal to clarify the choice. Yerevan has two options: to continue the multi-vector policy, which brings risks in the form of economic pressures, on the other hand, to return to a more predictable field, having a model of highly dependent relations with Russia. However, it is still a question whether Moscow will be able to advance its policies and positions, because it has announced one thing, and it is another thing to ensure results in real policy.

This Pashinyan-Putin meeting once again showed that Armenian-Russian relations have entered a new phase, a phase of less diplomatic, more calculated pressure and open impulses. Like Pashinyan’s government, Russia is no longer trying to hide its expectations and is ready to formulate them publicly.

This means that the “middle way” of foreign policy for Armenia is becoming narrower and more difficult to pass. This meeting was not just a dialogue, but an attempt to change the rules of the regional game. Time will tell if it will succeed or not.

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