VERELQin an interview with academician, sociologist, former director of the Institute of Philosophy, Sociology and Law of the NAS of RA Gevorg Poghosyan analyzed the current political situation in the republic.

In this interview, the expert questions the ability of the current government to successfully hold the referendum on the adoption of the new Constitution. Azerbaijan insists on this step, as well as on the removal of the reference to the Declaration of Independence from the text of the main law of the country, although the Armenian authorities present the process as a purely internal agenda. According to the expert, the current rating of the ruling party and Nikol Pashinyan is not enough to adopt a new Constitution, especially considering the expected low turnout and active opposition from the opposition.

Gevorg Poghosyan claims that the government’s strategy of scaring the population with the threat of war is no longer effective, and the persistent promotion of unpopular reforms only widens the gap between the state and society. It is expected that the upcoming parliamentary elections will become a scene of tough competition, where the government risks losing its majority. Finally, the sociologist predicts the possible failure of the government’s initiatives, calling the attempts to put pressure on the people counterproductive and dangerous.

Photo: Gevorg Poghosyan, source: aravot.am

VERELQ: Mr. Poghosyan, currently the Armenian authorities are planning to initiate constitutional reforms, which are considered quite controversial by many in the society. As a sociologist who studies public moods and political processes, please tell me, in your opinion, how strong are the positions of the current authorities to implement such a serious step?

Gevorg Poghosyan. As far as I understand, we are not even talking about partial changes, which are a normal part of the political process in any country, but about the adoption of a completely new Constitution, which is much more difficult to do. As for the resources of the government for the implementation of this initiative or the adoption of a new basic law in general, I think the real picture will be shown by the parliamentary elections in Armenia in June of this year. It is obvious that the referendum on the Constitution will take place after them.

According to the results of a number of different studies, the current rating of the ruling party and its leader Nikol Pashinyan is not enough to simply take and change the Constitution. Voter participation in referendums on such fundamental issues (in Armenia, a referendum is considered completed if more than half of registered voters participated in it (50% 1 vote) – author’s note), as a rule, is significantly lower than in presidential or parliamentary elections. Ensuring a sufficient number of participants, and even more, a sufficient number of “yes” voters, is an impossible task.

If the current government decides to hold this referendum, it will have to thoroughly explain to the people what the problem is, why it is necessary to change the Constitution and what exactly will be changed in it. This is the only way to try to ensure at least some kind of participation. However, the political opposition will not sit idle either. In opposition to the authorities, they will prove the exact opposite. that it is more effective to preserve the existing Constitution, or even if to change it, then only partially. At the political level, there will be a very serious struggle for the electorate between the government and the opposition. I think that it will be extremely difficult to ensure the necessary participation of citizens, and most likely the referendum will simply fail.

VERELQ: Returning to the topic of possible failure. During a recent briefing, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was asked what would happen if the referendum did not take place or failed. He answered that in such a case, the vote will be held again and again until the government’s arguments become convincing and the society does not accept them. As an expert, do you think such a scenario is possible? Is it possible to hold a referendum on the same issue several times in a row and ultimately succeed?

Gevorg Poghosyan. It is a completely counterproductive statement. It is obvious that if the initiative does not pass during the first referendum, it will be much more difficult to hold the second one after half a year or a year. I think the Prime Minister’s words are just a figure of speech, which means: “We will try even two hundred times until the people understand…”

In practice, it is as impractical as the last campaign of the authorities against the Armenian Apostolic Church turned out to be impractical. At that time, it was assumed that the authorities would come forward, make statements and be able to depose the Catholicos, but nothing came of it. If you try to impose an unpopular decision again and again, it will only give the population more power against the initiators. When the government insists too much on something that the people categorically do not accept, it does harm only to itself.

VERELQ: In the context of the parliamentary elections to be held on June 7 and, apparently, the future constitutional referendum, the main argument of the authorities is that the society must make a choice between war and peace. Given the difficult backdrop of Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 44-Day War and the subsequent loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, will such rhetoric be convincing enough for ordinary citizens to go and vote for a new Constitution?

Gevorg Poghosyan. First, these political processes will not proceed simultaneously. parliamentary elections will be held separately, and the referendum on the Constitution will be held separately. I doubt that the government will use the same argument in both cases.

As for the “if not us, then there will be a war” thesis, that argument does not work and sounds unconvincing. Moreover, both for professionals involved in politics and ordinary people. The message “If you don’t elect us, war will start” raises a logical question. what, are you inciting that war yourself? This is a very weak position. It is unlikely to work. Some other factors may influence the choice of voters, but this particular argument, in my opinion, will have minimal impact.

VERELQ: Based on sociological data and survey results, how do you assess the chances of the main political forces, the current government and the main opposition bloc, in the upcoming parliamentary elections?

Gevorg Poghosyan. For now, it is difficult to make accurate predictions, because there is still time before the elections. However, one thing is quite clear. the three main opposition forces are already quite serious competition. This threat is so tangible that the government is seriously worried, and its very behavior confirms that the opposition camp is perceived as a very big threat.

VERELQ: Please clarify whether we are talking about the opposition forces, whose leaders are ex-president Robert Kocharyan, politician and businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, as well as big businessman Samvel Karapetyan, who is currently under house arrest in Yerevan.

Gevorg Poghosyan. Yes. Regardless of whether these forces will unite in a single alliance or not, it is obvious that all three opposition camps are pursuing a common goal: the change of the current government. How they will distribute the powers among themselves in the future is a question of the third or even the fifth order. the main thing is that their current problems coincide.

It is no coincidence that the authorities are so worried because they see a growing power in them. It is possible that this potential is not fully reflected in sociological polls, but it is already clear that this will be a very serious competition. This struggle may simply prevent the ruling party from gaining more than fifty percent of the vote. It is possible that they will get twenty-five, thirty or forty percent, but forming a majority, not to mention a constitutional majority, seems to be an extremely problematic task as of today.

VERELQ: And the last question. Returning to the subject of the new Constitution. if the idea of ​​changing the country’s basic law does not find much support in the society, then why does the current government, which by its political nature tends to populism and usually relies on the approval of the masses, take such an unpopular step?

Gevorg Poghosyan. You ask a strange question. The point is that during the last three years, practically everything that this government does, is generally not popular among the population. Starting with the issue of Artsakh. the official statements that Artsakh is Azerbaijan, that the people of Artsakh should not return to their historical three-thousand-year-old homeland, and that this topic is finally closed, all this is absolutely unpopular.

I think that the leadership of the country is just going to the bank, despite the fact that the people do not accept their policies. Society thinks, acts and moves in a completely different direction than the government. This is the case when the paths of the government and the people diverge. Ultimately, this rupture can end in tragedy both for the government itself and, possibly, for the country’s population.

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