Although US President Donald Trump temporarily stopped the attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, declaring that the negotiations with Iran are progressing in a positive direction, he again started threatening the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The US president has stated that if Iran does not immediately open the Strait of Hormuz, the US will destroy all power plants, oil fields and Kharg Island. By the way, in another reference, Trump said that Iran probably will not be able to protect that island.

“If for any reason a deal is not reached soon, and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately open for business, we will end our wonderful visit to Iran by blowing up and completely destroying all of their power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island that we have not deliberately touched yet,” Trump said.

He also did not rule out attacks on Iran’s water purification plants. At the same time, Washington is conducting serious negotiations with what Trump says is a “new, more reasonable” government in Iran and understands that a peace agreement is inevitable. In an interview with the Financial Times and later in a conversation with journalists on Air Force One, the head of the White House also stated that he would like to “take Iran’s oil”, but at the same time assured that the negotiations between Washington and Tehran are going “very well” and he is “almost certain” that a peace agreement will be signed.

In a conversation with journalists, the US president said that contacts with Iran are ongoing, both directly and indirectly, and claimed that Tehran is partially opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, he did not clarify what he meant by direct negotiations.

“We are progressing extremely well in these negotiations. But with Iran, you never know, we negotiate with them, then we always have to bomb,” Trump said, referring to both the B-52 bombers and the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement. According to him, there will be a deal, but he did not rule out the opposite scenario either. Trump also stated that the Iranian regime is already “crushed”.

Spokesman of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ismail Bagheri, also stated that Iran has received messages from mediators that indicate the United States’ willingness to negotiate, but the US proposals are “unrealistic, illogical and exaggerated”.  “Our position is clear. We are under military aggression. Therefore, all our efforts and forces are focused on self-defense,” said Bagheri.

168.amRussian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said in a conversation with According to him, the statements according to which Washington is ready to strike Iran if the latter does not ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are simultaneously accompanied by signals of readiness to negotiate, but this “dual message” creates a strategic deadlock rather than an effective pressure mechanism.

“The Strait of Hormuz is one of the key points of the world energy system, through which a significant part of oil supplies pass, so it is not only an economic but also a security lever for Iran, which Iran uses well during this war. For this reason, any demand under threats is perceived in Tehran not as a negotiation proposal, but as coercion. Acceptance of such demands in that political system of Iran will mean a loss of internal legitimacy.

In addition, it appears that Washington’s proposed points for Iran are seen as capitulation: sharp limits on the nuclear program, reduction of regional influence and control of military capabilities. These demands are beyond the logic of classical compromise and are closer to coercion. As a result, the negotiations are deadlocked before they start, because one side demands the maximum concession, and the other cannot accept it,” the analyst said. He believes that this controversial approach has several consequences for the United States.

According to the analyst, this policy creates a trust deficit.

“When there are both threats of strikes and calls for negotiations at the same time, they are perceived as an inconsistency in strategy. For Iran, this means that even in the case of negotiations, there are no guarantees that they will not be interrupted by strikes.  In addition, if the threats do not come true, and the US constantly threatens, the US loses its role. The Strait of Hormuz may not become an open channel, but a conflict zone with global economic consequences. The complication of international positions is also a consequence for the USA. European and Asian partners, dependent on cross-strait energy carriers, tend to support stability, not force pressure. Thus, the tough rhetoric of the US may not receive full international support, limiting Washington’s ability to maneuver.

In this situation, a classic diplomatic impasse is formed. The US cannot fully back down from its tough demands without losing credibility, but it also cannot force Iran to accept them without a major escalation. Iran, for its part, cannot accept conditions that are perceived as a limitation of sovereignty, but is also not interested in an open military conflict,” Khramchikhin noted, continuing that a difficult situation is being created where the threat of force and the offer of negotiations do not complement each other, but mutually cancel each other.

According to the expert, this not only makes it difficult to reach a concrete agreement, but also deepens the crisis of confidence.

“This is like a strategic impasse without a clear way out. It is also obvious that the Trump administration is looking for a way out of the current situation, but that possible way out is looking more and more vague in the background of the prolongation of the war,” he said.

As for the South Caucasus, the analyst believes that as long as Iran effectively confronts and restrains its opponents, no developments are expected in the South Caucasus.

“It is generally understood that as a result of this conflict, the balance of power will change, which will affect the South Caucasus,” he said.

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