Satik Seyranyan in the “Classes” program the guest Vahe Davtyan is a doctor of political sciences, professor, energy security specialist։

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump, who at least several times a week personally, through US officials or representatives of other countries, announces the start or continuation of “successful” negotiations with Iran, made another eccentric statement, saying: “They should open the Trump Strait, that is, the Strait of Hormuz… the fake news will say that I said this by accident… Accidental things do not happen to me in this war situation,” he announced. he

The main theses of the interview are below.

• “Trump Road”, “Trump Strait”, “Trump Lake” in Kosovo… this methodology is the same, and we see how transport links are used by the US as a tool of expansion. So, all the principles that are included in the document of the new national security strategy of the United States in, they are absolutely naked. This indicates that the geo-economic component will be the basis of the newly formed world order: either there will be no Iran, or there will be an Iran that will not act as a key player in the Middle East, which will ratify the 2018. signed Caspian Convention or 1982 maritime convention. We are dealing with attempts to implement basic geo-economic policies through the use of archaic force. This shows that the Deep State continues to operate in the United States.

• The US no longer hides the fact that its aggression against Iran pursues one goal: the possession of Iran’s oil and gas resources. In fact, Washington has always been very sensitive to Iranian oil and resources. In the 1950s, as the British position in Iran weakened, the US carried out the first Color Revolution in Iran, which led to the arrest of Iran’s nationalist prime minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, and the distribution of all of Iran’s oil and gas resources among several Western actors. This configuration lasted until 1979, when the Islamic Revolution took place and American capital was driven out of the Iranian economy.:

• The Achilles heel of the US Middle East strategy of projecting on Iran is that in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and other places, after the neutralization of the leader, the state and the political system collapse, in the case of Iran, this is not the case, and the neutralization of the leader has no effect on the stability of the political system. And this is what allowed Iran to become an important player in the Middle East. Today we see that Iran is not only more than an armed state, but also an institutional state that is quite difficult to undermine. If the national authorities in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia at some point they tried to go out on the US to start a negotiation process, Iran refuses to do so, seeing this conflict as an opportunity. Iran sees itself a priori as the number one superpower in the Middle East. In this mega-region, as regional superpowers, Iran and Saudi Arabia collide, and that is why the US is trying to create problems between these two states. Saudi Arabia has already announced its intention to become a nuclear power, and this is being done to counterbalance Iran.:

• The US has recently been trying to engage in dialogue with China. We are talking about possible institutional cooperation between Washington and Beijing. There is potential to establish that cooperation, and we are talking about economic interaction. China is an important economic and trade player, but it is still not seen in the framework of the new world order as a threat generation zone in the Middle East.

• Iran’s ambassador to Armenia has already directly stated that Iran is alone in this war. 

To remind: In a conversation with Vahe Davtyan Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Iran Khalil Shirgholami a few days ago had said.

“Iran acts almost alone. You know that we are virtually alone in the war against the enemy, and during this national defense, no country participates and supports us by our side and on our behalf. Meanwhile, the United States possesses the most powerful military force in human history, and the Israeli regime is a completely militarized system, equipped largely with state-of-the-art weaponry provided by the Americans or from its own arsenal. Therefore, if we take these conditions and the situation into account, it will become clear that even under these conditions, Iran, as a lone warring country, which fights solely based on its own capabilities, can already be considered a winner. The enemy has not achieved his goals, and the costs for our opponents are increasing day by day and will continue to increase. We are absolutely determined that Iran will not come out of this war as the defeated side.”

• We see that Russia is showing caution in the processes taking place around Iran, and this is due to some steps of the USA, in particular, the easing of sanctions, which enables Russia to direct new resources to the Ukrainian front. As for Russia providing intelligence to Iran, Iran has good intelligence and knows very well the location of all military bases, economic and oil and gas facilities in the Middle East.

• The Strait of Hormuz is closed and there is a shortage of oil and gas in Europe. Turkey is more than skillfully trying to adapt to this situation, which is trying to diversify the export of natural gas to Europe through “Turkish Stream” and “Blue Stream”. Russia will try to make up that shortfall in the form of indirect supplies, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t bypass routes, and one of those routes is Turkey, and that’s why Turkey is showing a rather passive attitude now.

• The fact that Turkey has taken an anti-Israel stance in this conflict fits into its geo-economic policy. Russia will continue to exercise caution. To say that Russia has an unequivocal and unequivocal pro-Iranian position in this conflict, I at least doubt it.

• The volume of Iran’s exports has decreased for obvious reasons, including to China, and Russia can take advantage of this to try to fill the missing volumes.

• The post-World War II security architecture is crumbling today. A new system of international relations will be formed, the basis of which will be the right-wing ideology based on national, conservative ideas.:

• The proliferation of nuclear weapons must be controlled, and in this regard, the IAEA must be given real tools to influence the internal decisions of states, otherwise nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of, for example, various terrorist organizations at any moment. 

• We must closely monitor Turkey’s development of nuclear weapons. This is also brought to the Azerbaijani agenda. Aliyev has already announced the development of a peaceful atom several times, but taking into account the relations between Azerbaijan-Turkey, Azerbaijan-Pakistan, which is a nuclear power, of course, at some point, Azerbaijan will transform the peaceful atom into a military atom. In this regard, even more so, we should not allow our Metsamor nuclear power plant to be closed:

• About the authorities of Armenia and the existing challenges. We must understand that we are not dealing with a statesman. Nikol Pashinyan is busy with political careerism, and his horizon is limited only to election cycles. What do you want from a political force that has no proposition for the public and the only thing it does now is terrorize its own people into saying if you don’t elect me there will be war? To me, a citizen, KP does not have any economic, social, or infrastructural proposals. In other words, it is clear that in the case of this political vacuum, they must implement the “happy bus” operation in order to stay on the informational surface. But unfortunately, we are we do not have such a political system that this inability is the basis for political change:

• For the security of the state, especially in such a difficult situation, it is very dangerous for the number of politically neutral citizens to increase, who say: I do not believe in anyone, I will not go to the elections… This creates fertile ground for the reproduction of power. When a country is in crisis, it is very dangerous when an apathetic electorate carries a lot of weight.

• If you want to clarify and preserve your identity, it is necessary to preserve the principle of “us-them” and “me-she”, otherwise it is difficult to preserve the national identity. Now they are trying to erase those lines and convince us that we do not have any contradictions with Azerbaijanis who implement anti-Armenian rhetoric and anti-Armenian programs.:

• Armenian hatred in Azerbaijan is at the institutional level. An example: Armenia imports gasoline from the SOCAR company. At the same time, SOCAR’s subsidiary in Switzerland is funding anti-Artsakh, anti-Armenian lobby groups. The National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan is still funding quite large research groups, whose main goal is to show that Armenia is an artificial state, and Armenians do not have a national identity… We see that from 2020, after the 44-day war, Azerbaijanis are establishing themselves as a political nation. And the government of Armenia contributes to this՝ turning us into an object that serves Azerbaijan’s political interests:

• TRIPP is the same “Zangezur Corridor” which, solving the issues of Nakhijevan, will lead to the internal colonization of Azerbaijan through Armenia, which Azerbaijan failed to do for decades, because Nakhijevan had an internal clan, protected by the Constitution. This is a project that makes Armenia a tool for the establishment of Azerbaijan’s statehood and long-term development.

• By managing Nakhichevan and Artsakh, Azerbaijan gets the opportunity to become a key player in the region.

• Neoliberal ideas and approaches are considered by the Armenian government as a key foreign political toolkit, and this is when the era of leftist ideologies, leftist populism, and neoliberalism is coming to an end in the same Europe. Anti-liberal forces are gaining new positions in Europe, appearing in Parliaments. Putting the citizen above the state fits perfectly into neoliberal politics. I hope that after the June 7 elections, we will have a new reality that will review our relations with Europe and various geopolitical centers.

• The term “hybrid warfare” is used in a highly manipulative way. It is the application of several tools, including military, information, psychological, and other tools. Yes, the tools of hybrid war are used against Armenia, but not by Russia.

• From the point of view of financial security, we are in a very dangerous situation. And I am not saying this, the principles established by the RA Central Bank testify to this. 

• It is a very important indicator when the state implements infrastructure projects. This is not done in Armenia, it is very important. Through infrastructural projects, you also appropriate that territory, you strengthen your sovereignty in your territory. How many major infrastructure projects has CP implemented in the last 8 years: 0? If the state does not ensure industrialization, it is useless to talk about economic capacity, good living:

• Turkey is regaining its own position in pan-Eurasian logistics links, showing that Turkey is the key logistics hub that is most important in connecting Europe to Central Asia. Turkey is proving to be a very important player in the Middle Corridor. And TRIPP is what he needs for that.

• If there was talk of a complete transport blockade of Armenia, TRIPP would not be so dangerous. Otherwise, talking only about the unblocking of 40-42 km means talking about the enclavization of Armenia. It will lead to a blockade of Armenia. By paralyzing the North-South international corridor, which is of vital interest to Armenia, we are significantly reducing the level of our transportation security.: There are unverified reports that a 500 meter wide area is being provided for TRIPP, which if confirmed raises serious questions. What is that huge area for, what are they going to put there? 

• And parallel to this, we see talks about changing the Armenian railway model developing at the official level. Pashinyan is talking about handing over the concession of “South Caucasus Railway” to the Kazakh side. If the Kazakh capital is brought to our railway network, it means the actualization of the Middle Corridor, the Turan Corridor, in the territory of Armenia. The withdrawal of Russian capital from our railway system is in the interests of Turkey and the United States.

To remind: A few days ago, when Nikol Pashinyan was asked in a briefing whether during his telephone conversation with Putin, the question of urgently transferring the concession of “South Caucasian Railway” to a third party was raised, because there are discussions about transferring it to a Kazakh company, Pashinyan expressed hope that a partnership solution would be given to this issue.

“We will not mind if it turns out that there is a mutual understanding between us and Russia, that the Kazakh company is acceptable to both of us…

It’s not like we sit down and discuss with the Russian partners… because the Russian partners have not yet said: OK, we agree, let’s do it that way. I mean, the discussion is in a different mode, but there are such ideas floating around,” he said. 

Back in mid-February, Pashinyan announced that his idea about the railway is that any country friendly with Armenia and Russia buys the right to manage it from Russia. 

“There are forces within the framework of TRIPP who say that let’s make it so that after Meghri, when it enters Nakhijevan, it does not enter Nakhijevan and bypasses Armenia. Naturally, our international partners say: “How can I bypass Armenia? Armenia is our partner.” There, those who want to bypass Armenia say that the railways of Armenia are under the control of Russia. We are doing everything to convince that, yes, it is under the management of Russia, but it is the property of Armenia, and Russia does not want to and will not create any obstacles regarding regional projects in any way,” he said. 

It was talked about for a long time, he also mentioned that the concession could be transferred to Qatar, Bahrain or even the United Arab Emirates. We should also remind that Kazakhstan is a member of the Organization of Turkic States. Therefore, as a result of the deal, Turkey and Azerbaijan will have greater leverage to influence the railway.

• If the methodology applied to the northeastern borders of Armenia is used in the demarcation and demarcation process, Armenia may end up in enclave conditions if Azerbaijan continues its aggressive, militaristic policy. If the change of the route of the gas pipeline is not technical, but related to demarcation and delimitation processes, it is very dangerous.:

To remind, the other day information was spread that a part of the gas pipeline from Georgia to Armenia will be moved at the request of Armenia. It is reported that the change of the location of the pipeline is related to the request of the Armenian side, because the Armenian part of the gas pipeline is located in the Georgian-Armenian-Azerbaijani trilateral border zone and was mined in the 90s.

“Based on the fact that it is not possible to maintain the minimum safety standards and carry out repair work in the given section, on the basis of the tripartite interstate agreement, it was decided to remove the said problematic section of the gas pipeline from the mined zone and build a new gas pipeline at a safe distance,” the justification for the relocation stated.  

• Presenting the relocation of the 5.5-kilometer section of the Georgia-Armenia gas pipeline as a “technical issue” means consciously reducing the real depth of the problem. In fact, this is a manifestation of risks accumulated for many years, but not resolved at the systemic level.

The roots of the problem come from the 1990s, when this complex border junction between Armenia-Georgia-Azerbaijan turned into a minefield. Since then, a section of the pipeline has been virtually out of full operation․ not only its stable technical maintenance, but also its constant control is impossible.

Now it is proposed to build a new section with a length of about 5548 meters to bypass the danger zone. Georgia is building its part, Armenia is building its own.

We are talking about the backbone of our energy system. Armenia receives about 2.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually through the territory of Georgia via the “North Caucasus-Transcaucasia” route, which connects to the “Red Bridge-Sevkar-Berd” gas pipeline. And it is at this juncture that the vulnerability that forces logistics to be restructured today is formed.

The demarcation process did not simplify this picture, but aggravated it. Some sections of the gas pipeline have appeared in risk zones, and some sections have actually passed into the range of the enemy’s direct access.

It is also noteworthy that the initiative comes from Yerevan.

• There is talk of extending the life of the Metsamor nuclear power plant for another 10 years, until 2046. Rosatom claims that this is possible, which will greatly strengthen our energy security. At the same time, the famous 123 agreement lifted the ban on the export of nuclear technology from the USA to Armenia, and the proposed modular reactor construction technologies have not yet been properly tested.

• In the collective West, there is a perception of risk and a pragmatic calculation. In order to ensure economic and political stability within the same European Union, it is necessary to keep Turkey, Azerbaijan, and other states of the Turkish world in the zone of predictability. For example, Hungary, Slovakia conduct this policy. But Europe’s political elites also consider the Turkish direction as a means of ensuring their economic stability, which is directly proportional to their political reproduction.

Details in the video.

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