“LUYS” Foundation analyzed the socio-economic developments of the RA economy in 2026. in January-February.

Thus.

• 2026 the high economic growth rate is maintained, mainly due to the growth of the mining industry. The current year started with a relatively high economic activity index, the pace of which slowed down slightly in February. In February, RA’s economic activity index (TAC) was 7.2%, slowing down by 0.4 percentage points compared to January. The TAC of January-February was 7.4%, to which the industry sector had the biggest positive contribution, which in turn was caused mainly by the growth of the mining industry. Services, trade and construction sectors also contributed positively to the TAC.
• The indicators of export and import have been restored. After the decline recorded in January, both export and import volumes recovered sharply in February, increasing by 37.6% and 26.9%, respectively. Although the structural data of February’s foreign trade have not yet been published, the analysis of January’s indicators allows us to assume that the increase in exports is mainly due to the activation of exports of mining products.
• State budget revenues and expenditures are increasing, but capital expenditures are decreasing. 2026 In January-February, both revenues and expenses of the state budget increased. At the same time, capital expenditures have decreased significantly by 58.8%. Such a sharp decline in capital expenditures is worrisome given their importance to long-term economic growth and infrastructural development.
• The rate of inflation has started to accelerate. Inflation rate in 2026 in February it was 4.3%, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to January. In those circumstances, however, the central bank did not revise the refinancing rate during March, maintaining it at the level of 6.5%.

The full analysis is available at this link:

 “LUYS” Foundation

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