There will be a war in September, the authorities threaten. They decided to go to the elections with that threat.

The “war in case of victory of the opposition” supporters know very well that what they are doing is just an ugly speculation, spilled on blood and fears. Our task is to explain this clearly to our society.
 
In fact, what is Nikol Pashinyan’s peace structure? Let’s try to demarcate empty talk and reality.
 
The peace that the authorities are talking about is some written bilateral commitments made by the parties.  

Formally, the violation of these obligations can become an occasion for one of the parties to start military operations against the other.

Today, Pashinyan’s peace has the following structure.

1.    The actual situation. Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan (with Armenian heritage being destroyed), occupied territories of Armenia, delimited parts of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, closed border with Turkey, beginning of trade with Azerbaijan, Armenian prisoners of war in Baku.

2.    Documents known to the public: declarations between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, which the parties have not formally renounced at least, the Washington tripartite declaration, the signed agreement on peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the border delimitation and demarcation protocols. Maybe there are other documents, but the public is not informed about them.

3.    Aliyev’s public demands: the need to change the Armenian constitution, the narrative about “Western Azerbaijan” and the return of three hundred thousand Azerbaijanis to the “historical homeland”, the Zangezur corridor.

4. Pashinyan’s policy of pleasing the Turkic world: the narratives surrounding the “revanchism” of the opposition, the rejection of the Declaration of Independence and the memory of Artsakh, the constant thanks to Aliyev, the rejection of the image of Ararat, forgetting the subject of the Armenian Genocide, the anti-Russian steps, the attack on the church.

That’s all there is in the “peace” folder of Nikola.
 
These are documents signed on behalf of the state, and no reasonable political force in Armenia today or in the near future will seek to cancel them. This should be clearly said to our society.
As for Aliyev’s public demands, the Armenian side, according to the authorities, has no formal obligations towards them. Or has, but they are kept secret from the public.
 
Opposition steps
 
 There is one simple and interesting solution against the government’s false and obscene thesis “If we don’t exist, there will be war”.

– The main opposition political units make a joint statement that they are committed to fulfilling all the written, public commitments undertaken by Armenia. The joint statement will be a strong impulse for the international community, neighbors and our society, and will significantly increase the collective weight of the opposition systems.

–       If, however, some circumstances prevent a united action, then the main opposition forces can do it separately.

In oppositional systems, there is no adventurous leader or force. The task of the next authorities is not to “revision” the negotiation base, but to find solutions to many unresolved issues through peaceful negotiations. To increase the role and importance of Armenia in the region with thoughtful and effective ideas, new options for unblocking communications, and to ensure real peace without humiliating shadow conditions that only weaken peace.
 
Today we do not have peace, but “no war”, and the threats of the authorities only confirm the instability of the peace they “established”. In the coming years, the new authorities of Armenia should be able to skillfully manage this “no war” situation and turn it into a real, guaranteed peace.
 
After the surrender of Artsakh, war is possible only in one case. if Nikol himself incites that war to keep power.
 
Vahe Hovhannisyan Alternative projects group

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