US President Donald Trump, who 24 hours ago gave the Islamic Republic of Iran 48 hours to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, seems to have retreated from his ultimatum.

Trump announced that he had ordered a five-day halt to military targeting of Iran’s energy infrastructure. On his Truth Social page, US President Donald Trump wrote that he is happy to announce that the United States of America and Iran have held very good and effective negotiations over the last two days on a full and complete settlement of hostilities in the Middle East. Trump also noted that he ordered the US armed forces to postpone the attacks on the energy infrastructure of the country for 5 days.

“Based on the spirit and tone of these deep, detailed and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have directed the Department of Defense to delay for five days all military strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure, contingent on the success of ongoing meetings and discussions,” he wrote.

It became known that there was also a telephone conversation between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, during which Sergey Lavrov emphasized the inadmissibility of strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which create unacceptable risks and are full of catastrophic environmental consequences for all countries.

Trump’s announcement was followed by anonymous postings in Iranian media and Telegram channels.

Tasnim, referring to a high-ranking security official, announced.

“No negotiations have been proposed or held. The Strait of Hormuz will not return to its former state, and energy markets will not stabilize.” Another statement was circulated, citing an Iranian Foreign Ministry official, that there will be no talks between Tehran and Washington, and that Trump’s statements are an attempt to lower energy prices and buy time to implement military programs.

There have also been reports that there have been no direct talks, but that Iran has held talks with Middle Eastern partners, agreeing to change the status of the Strait of Hormuz for some partners. However, in general, Iran maintains the logic of continuing the war and advancing its preconditions in the propaganda domain.

168.amin a conversation with Russian orientalist Viktor Nadein-Raevsky said that the content of Trump’s statements changes very quickly, so it takes time to understand their long-term and substantive nature. He believes that Donald Trump’s decision at first glance can be perceived as an attempt to de-escalate the war against Iran.

However, according to him, according to everything, we are not dealing with tension reduction, but with the mechanism of parallel application of pressure and negotiation, which will allow to weaken the intensity of military strikes at the same time.

“The energy crisis that broke out in the world as a result of Iran’s actions is a problem for the United States, which cannot be denied or underestimated. Therefore, with ultimatums and negotiation attempts, the US administration is trying to ease the situation in that area, at the same time to gain time and position itself well.

The pause announced by Washington seems to be an opportunity to start a diplomatic process, but Iran, for its part, seems to deny the fact of direct negotiations, which shows that the contacts between the parties, if they even exist, are not public and mediated. Even if they exist, Iran treats them with great suspicion and mistrust, evaluating the previous two negative experiences of negotiations with the USA. Iran no longer trusts negotiations with the US. Iran understands that Iran’s pressures are yielding certain results, so it is trying to strengthen the position of the dictator.

Tehran’s information response is also predictable. The Iranian side presents the created situation as the result of a good resistance, stressing that Washington had to back down from its threats. This is an important message for a country waging a war, as it allows maintaining the strength of resistance under external pressure,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

He believes that the five-day pause is a transition phase that can develop in different directions, but the most likely scenario is a controlled escalation. “In other words, the parties can continue the military and political confrontation, but try to avoid such strikes that could lead to unpredictable global consequences. The diplomatic window is opening, but it is extremely narrow and temporary. This is also evidenced by the emphasis of the US president that the targeting of energy infrastructures is stopped.

Summing up, it can be said that Trump’s decision does not symbolize a resolution of the conflict or a real de-escalation. It is a strategic pause, the aim of which is to simultaneously reduce international pressure and control economic risks. However, Iran sees success in all of this, perhaps there is some truth in it, but it is too early to make final predictions, because I think this is an intermediate, transitional stage for better positioning,” Victor Nadein-Raevsky said.

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