What is the point of following the ongoing war in Iran if no consequences will be drawn from it?
And it is possible to learn very useful lessons from the Iranian cases, if we follow the events not as a simple news, but pay attention to the strategic course of what is happening.
From that point of view, at least three conclusions can be clearly marked at this moment, which are very relevant for us, also in the context of the campaign of defeat unfolding among us right now.
1️⃣ FIRST CLASS
In war, not everything is determined by material advantage. The US and Israel openly and many times exceed Iran in their military and technical capabilities, which ensures the latter’s tactical success. However, tactical successes do not necessarily imply strategic victory. The US-Israeli military operation, which was most likely intended to be completed in a few days (similar to the first version of the Russian СВО), has been going on for more than three weeks without a clear winning strategy. Competent Iranian resistance (see the next point), as well as a strategic approach to the outcome of the war, allow Tehran to compensate for the military-technical imbalance and, despite the many losses suffered, not only to continue the resistance, but also to gradually dictate the new course of the war imposed on it.
2nd CLASS
At the core of the Iranian resistance lies a clear strategic approach, which has not changed significantly, despite the many losses of the military-political elite in recent weeks. That resistance is based, among other things, on an asymmetric (non-proportional) operational concept, which involves inflicting maximum damage on the enemy by clearly targeting and using available resources.
A vivid example of this can be seen these days in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States, which has the world’s most powerful navy, and its allies are being dealt the greatest strategic damage by cheap Iranian drones, fast motorboats, naval bombs and short-range missiles, which are dictating the new rules of the game in the Strait of Hormuz. It is enough to disrupt the world economy and give Iran the most powerful negotiating tool, which even led to the partial lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil.
The concept of disproportionality has other manifestations as well (eg, hitting US allies, effectively increasing the scope of the conflict and thus the cost of continuing the war). In other words, Iran does not play the game imposed on it (in which it would lose), but gradually imposes its own game on others. And at the base of this new game lies an absolute advantage, which is often overlooked by many. It is ignored, but not in Iran, which is the third class.
3️⃣-TH LESSON
When Napoleon tried to quickly conquer Russia in the early 19th century, he took many things into account, except for one thing: the weather. After the defeat of Napoleon and other Western armies on Russian soil, it is often said about “General Cold” (General Moroz) (referring to the extremely cold winter of the Russian world and the impossibility of fighting in them), which as an invisible force helped the Russian side to win.
If we apply this artistic analogy to Iran, we can say that Iran has its shoulderless general. it is “General Geography”. The Iranian strategy is based on the full understanding of the geography of that state and its wise use. Figuratively speaking, the Strait of Hormuz and the Arab countries are in Iran’s backyard, so it is possible to put pressure on them, even having a “slingshot” (ragatka) – minimal tools (weapons) in one’s own arsenal. This calculation is the basis of the Iranian strategy. even if all of Iran’s long-range missiles are gone, there is still a small boat that will create world-class problems in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing everyone to consider the Iranian factor.
Turkologist Varuzhan Geghamyan
—