The authorities are still talking about the prospect of connecting the electricity systems of Armenia and Turkey. They even started discussing investment issues with the Turkish government. They say: “We are ready to start the day before!”

In other circumstances, the given initiative could perhaps be welcomed. For example: 2009-2010. During “football diplomacy”, when there was a serious lack of electricity in Turkey, Armenia was ready to close a part of it. After all, both the economic and security environments in that period were fundamentally different from the current realities.

Today the situation has changed qualitatively.

Turkey is not only overcoming the electricity deficit at a dynamic pace, but has also adopted a strategy to boost exports, including the South Caucasus markets, in the coming years. The prerequisites for the latter are present, especially considering

Continued growth of generating capacity in Turkey: Akkuyu NPP, new nuclear projects in Sinop and Thrace, more than 750 hydropower plants, etc.

In these conditions, the connection of the electricity systems of Armenia and Turkey means one thing: turning Armenia into a net importer.

This trend is additionally deepened by several intra-systemic processes.

The first of these is Yerevan’s choice in favor of a small modular reactor, which in the long run will replace the current base nuclear capacity model, reducing the system’s level of self-sufficiency.

The second is the rapid and chaotic development of solar energy, which, with limited export potential and high seasonal dependence, cannot provide stable coverage of base demand.

The third is the liberalization of the market, which creates all the conditions for importing electricity from foreign markets and actually increasing Armenia’s external dependence.

The EU also acts as a financial supporter of all this, expressing readiness to provide the necessary funds for the purpose of “de-Russification” of Armenia’s energy sector. Naturally, in the form of loans.

Expected results: increase in public debt, sharp decrease in energy self-sufficiency, new security risks.

Vahe Davtyan, doctor of political sciences, professor

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