Pashinyan again resorted to his already predictable practices, making the threat of war not a matter of responsibility, but a crude political tool.

This time he went further, actually warning, or rather, blackmailing the Armenian people, that if he loses the upcoming elections, war will be inevitable.

One could think that after the wars, years of failures, losses and disappointment under Pashinyan, such statements would at least be presented with some seriousness or restraint. Instead, they sound increasingly desperate, almost mechanical, as if repeating the same thought can restore long-lost confidence.

Ironically, the more he tries to advance this narrative, the more it works against him. There is no need to remind the Armenian society about the war. they experienced it, suffered its pain, paid the price for it. And every time he brings up the subject, it doesn’t instill fear of an uncertain future. it brings back very specific memories from his years in power. Wars during his time were not hypothetical, they were real, devastating and with severe consequences. So when he talks about war, people can’t imagine what it would be like without him. they remember what happened during his reign.

It is therefore not surprising that this argument sounds increasingly hollow. A leader who has failed in the fields of foreign policy and security is now trying to present himself as the only guarantor of peace. This might seem ironic if it were not so serious. The facts speak for themselves. Opportunities were missed, warnings were ignored, and proposals, such as the 2019 version of the Minsk Group, were not only rejected, but also hidden from the public.

But perhaps the most troubling aspect of this rhetoric is not its cynicism, but its sheer absurdity. Pashinyan speaks as if he has a unique ability to predict the time of war, as if geopolitical realities are adapted to the election results. However, the reality shows something else. On September 21, 2020, just six days before the start of the 44-day war, he presented his vision “Armenia 2050” in the hall of Matenadaran, full of great ambitions and unrealistic optimism. Not a word, not a hint, not a sign that the country is on the brink of one of the most destructive wars in modern history.

So the question remains. if he could not predict the war that would start in a few days, then on what basis is he now trying to predict a war in the fall?

These constant reminders of the war speak more not about the dangers facing Armenia, but about the incompetence and failures of the person making these statements. They reflect not strategic perception but political insanity, not leadership but improvisation. And perhaps most tellingly, this approach underestimates the very people it is trying to influence, assuming that they will forget or ignore what they have already experienced. This is perhaps the clearest proof of how far he is cut off from reality.

Former RA Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan

—