The pre-election processes and the reorganization of the opposition field continue to be at the core of Armenia’s domestic political agenda. What is the effect of the government’s legal actions against political opponents, especially the prime minister? Nikol Pashinyan thrown into battle Samvel Karapetyan Is it possible to fully consolidate the opposition and will foreign political discourses play a decisive role in the decision of the voters? VERELQ talked with political scientist Suren Surenyants about these and other key topics.

The photo shows Suren Surenyants, source: 168.am

VERELQ. Mr. Surenyants, as a political scientist, how do you interpret keeping Samvel Karapetyan in prison for a long time? first in prison and then under house arrest. Is this really a way to weaken his influence or, by and large, strengthen him in terms of the final effect?

Suren Surenyants. I think that in the beginning, that imprisonment was rather a punitive action, because at the initial stage, it was difficult to calculate how Samvel Karapetyan would behave in the election process. And in the beginning, the authorities obviously followed the path of repressive methods. if you remember, pre-trial detention was chosen as a deterrent, in a rather strict regime, in the National Security Service. But when the election process started, that is, it became clear to them that Samvel Karapetyan is becoming one of the main actors, they began to at least wonder how to deal with the restraining order. It was during that time that a milder measure of restraint was chosen, a relatively mild house arrest, which is no longer adequate for the person’s actions, naturally, not adequate at all. I think that now the government does not have a clear answer to this question and is maneuvering itself. choose not to leave with a signature or keep under house arrest? It is not really obvious which deterrent works more for the government or against it.

VERELQ. It is clear. And now, when various sociological polls are ordered and carried out, how do you assess his chances, Samvel Karapetyan? Does the power he created really have a chance to come second or win? Do you see that desire to win in him at all?

Suren Surenyants. You know, the question has two layers. This electoral process differs from others in that, I think, there is no obvious opposition favorite. But that doesn’t mean that there is no opposition leadership, just that leadership is multi-polar. In other words, there are three to four opposition consolidation centers. for example, Tsarukyan, Samvel Karapetyan, Kocharyan, as well as Arman Tatoyan has a certain consolidation around him. This is the feature of this electoral process, the multi-polarity of the opposition leadership. Therefore, at this time it is very difficult to predict with certainty what the configuration of these poles will be. Samvel Karapetyan’s pole is certainly one of the inevitable guiding forces. As for the desire to win, honestly, I don’t want to give an assessment. I think yes, he wants to win. But talking about the victory of one force is pointless in any case, because the model that existed in Gyumri can really be repeated. In other words, there must be several opposition forces, it is inevitable, because one opposition pole cannot win, even the sum of two opposition poles will not satisfy. In case of victory, the new government must have at least three components here.

VERELQ. Got it. In other words, you don’t see the formal consolidation of the opposition in the pre-election period, i.e. in one list, but is it possible in the post-election period? 

Suren Surenyants. No, it is utopia, impossible and unnatural, and from the point of view of the electoral process, even harmful. Because it is not clear that a single opposition list will lead to the consolidation of the entire opposition electorate. In general, when society sees unnatural associations, a number of opposition groups with strong principled positions may even be disappointed due to their value orientations. And so, in the presence of three or four poles, all opposition groups will find their microphone. That is, when everyone unites in an unnatural way, everyone has their favorite or disliked figure there, and based on that they either vote, or not. It is not a fact that it will bring success, especially since there is no such leader with a big advantage in terms of rating, around which everyone will naturally unite. For example, there is no Levon Ter-Petrosyan phenomenon of 2008, no Vazgen Manukyan phenomenon of 1996, that one person is incomparably ahead of everyone else in terms of rating, and people naturally unite around him. If there is no such thing, this multi-polar structure of the opposition is much more optimal and will cover the opposition electorate to the maximum.

VERELQ. And what effect will foreign political discourses and discussions have on this pre-election struggle? Will the impact be strong, decisive or not?

Suren Surenyants. The government will do anything to push that narrative, understandably, because they have a clear position, and that’s why they put the hybrid threat legend or myth into circulation. But, for example, I was in Goris yesterday and without a microphone I just talked with ordinary citizens on the streets. I can say with certainty (it’s not just the image of Goris, I made that approbation in Yerevan as well) that people are primarily interested in their quality of life and social problems.

VERELQ. In other words, are these narratives used for elitist discussions in Yerevan?

Suren Surenyants. Well, they have a certain role, but it will be very difficult to get out of the circles of the elite. the general classes of society are very little interested in it.

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