There is a temporary calm on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border before a big storm. All Azerbaijani advances and positional improvements in the sovereign territory of Armenia are, in fact, military platforms for the purpose of developing further aggression against Armenia. It gave such an assessment 168 TVof Revue on the air of the program military expert Davit Jamalyanspeaking about the threats of new Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia and the effects of the US-Israel-Iran war.

The military expert compares the current military-political situation with the situation before the 2020 Forty-four-day catastrophic war.

“Do you remember that in 2018, when this disaster befell us, the Azerbaijanis were conducting military exercises in the Nakhijevan direction, they shortened the neutral zone in the Yeraskh-Aren sector and advanced significantly, then, it seems, everything calmed down, a backdrop of peace, and the Forty-Four-Day War broke out. Now it is a temporary pause before a big disaster again, so that the British-Turkish-Azerbaijani puppet can reproduce its power in Armenia, and the illusion of peace will work,” comments Davit Jamalyan.

Jamalyan emphasizes that Azerbaijan is not ready for peace and is waiting for an opportune moment to attack Armenia in the context of the Iranian war. The military expert predicts Azerbaijan’s new military aggression against Armenia and considers it more likely that it will happen after the National Assembly elections in Armenia on June 7, if Nikol Pashinyan manages to restore his power.

“They are not shooting yet, but Azerbaijan is not ready for peace, it is waiting for the right moment in this Iranian context, when Iran will weaken, to strike and first of all to strike us, to take Syunik, having the unequivocal support of the West, Turkey, Israel, and at the moment, the fact that the Iranian statehood is standing still saves us from that disastrous scenario,” the military expert says.

According to Jamalyan, the enemy is preparing a platform with wedge-shaped thrusts in the RA border to ensure advancement from different sectors and divide the territories of Syunik and Vayots Dzor. According to the expert, the platform was prepared in Nerkin Hand, Sev Lake, Jermuk and other directions. According to the expert, in the case of the reproduction of Nikol Pashinyan’s power, not only Aliyev, but also Turkey, Britain, the European Union, and the Trump administration have the maximum goal of settling 300 thousand Azerbaijanis in Armenia, and in parallel, Aliyev receives the corridor under the name of TRIPP.

In this context, he draws attention to Aliyev’s statement that Azerbaijan is ready to recognize the territorial integrity of Armenia, but may change its position after half a year.

According to Davit Jamalyan’s analysis, Azerbaijan is trying to solve two strategic problems with its above-mentioned program.

“TRIPP will lead to the Turkishization of the Meghri sector under the name of infrastructure, they will first of all settle the areas adjacent to TRIPP with Turks. In the absence of resistance, there is no point in invading. they will come and be confirmed, after 5 years they will demand autonomy, after that they will try to refuse, at that time you will either give autonomy to the Turks who have already arrived, or you will fight.

If you are going to fight, your work becomes a hundred times more complicated, because not only the springboard with wedge-shaped cracks is already ready, but also the rear is not strong, because they have already arrived and established themselves in different places. Azerbaijan will justify that “according to its constitution, 60 percent of the territories of Armenia are its own, and it is carrying out an anti-terrorist operation to liberate its territory”, and we cannot say anything, because according to the peace treaty, Nikol Pashinyan did not demand that Azerbaijan make changes to its constitution.

He clearly said that we know that according to the constitution of Azerbaijan, about 60 percent of our territory is Azerbaijan, but we do not demand that they change it, because Aliyev declares that he accepts territorial integrity. This means making fools of us all. If you don’t demand it, then you legitimize his future strike, that’s why Nikol’s government is a war-making government. First, by bringing the Turks, that fight will be brought to our streets, and then, if those Turks want autonomy, Azerbaijan, having made its constitution a flag, will strike. This is the ultimate goal.”

However, according to the expert, if Aliyev sees that Nikol Pashinyan is unable to reproduce, it is not excluded that Azerbaijan will strike in the near future, before the elections, in the hope that they will introduce martial law in Armenia and cancel the elections.

“Then we must understand that if Nikol is not reproduced, his reproduction is not achieved, he loses interest for his Anglo-Turkish owners, Aliyev. They can give some guarantees, but in that case they need Nikol for one thing: as long as you are in power, we will take whatever is possible, and Aliyev’s statement yesterday that we can change our position after half a year suggests that they are more inclined to the idea that Nikol’s rule will not be repeated, and he is thus preparing the informational and diplomatic background for a new aggression,” the expert continues.

According to Davit Jamalyan, head of the Wings of Unity initiative, former human rights defender Arman Tatoyan the statement About the new Azerbaijani incursions in the direction of Vardenis and Jermuk, it is not only true, but it is the well-known truth that everyone knows, and if the Ministry of Defense denies something during the rule of Nikol Pashinyan, it means that there is something, and the suspicions should deepen.

The military expert attaches great importance to having a powerful ally, noting that the strategic interests of Armenia and Russia coincide. According to Jamalyan, it is in the interests of Russia that Syunik and Artsakh should be part of Armenia.

In response to the question of “Review”, why in that case the Russian peacekeeping troops allowed the full occupation of Artsakh by Azerbaijan, the military expert told remarkable details of the events that took place during the days of the Azerbaijani aggression against the Republic of Artsakh, in September 2023. According to him, the blockade of Artsakh was a “Nikola-Aliyev joint action against the Armenian interests”.

According to Davit Jamalyan, in 2023 in the afternoon of September 19, the then Minister of Defense of Iran Mohammad Reza Ashtiani (or Chief of General Staff Mohammad Hossein Bagheri) in the presence of the Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, who was in Tehran at that time, contacted the Ministry of Defense of Armenia, offering the help of Iran and Russia to break the blockade and enter Artsakh. Davit Jamalyan refers to the data published by Russian-Armenian orientalist Karine Gevorgyan.

“Our compatriot, orientalist Karine Gevorgyan announced on September 20 on the air of the “Golos Moskvy” radio company that there was a call from the Iranian side, where Shoigu was also located, and it was suggested to “use the territory of Armenia as a base to stabilize the situation in Artsakh.” This wording is his. If we open this diplomatic formulation, this means that some forces had to enter the territory of Armenia from Iran, break through the blockade, and reach Artsakh. But remember what happened. A meeting of the Security Council took place at that moment, and the Security Council headed by Nikol Pashinyan decided not to intervene, to step aside. And let’s remember that before the September 2023 aggression against Artsakh, there was a telephone conversation between Erdogan and Pashinyan,” the expert noted.

According to Davit Jamalyan, moreover, that call was made twice from Tehran, not only in the afternoon of September 19, but also late in the evening. He also added that Pashinyan admitted this by declaring that they were trying to drag us into the war.

Full interview in the video.

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