Yesterday, from the podium of the European Parliament, Nikol Pashinyan referred to the ongoing war against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

He mentioned that the positive image he presented regarding the relations with the USA, the TRIPP project, is overshadowed by the events that are taking place in the neighborhood of Armenia, in the Islamic Republic of Iran and in a number of Middle Eastern countries. He specifically said:

“Iran is our good friend, our thousand-year-old neighbor. You have already seen the extent of our relations with the United States. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria are our good partners. We have recently taken a historic step with Saudi Arabia and established diplomatic relations. We are pained to see what is happening in the Middle East. In the background of such an international crisis, moreover, we are a small, modest country, and we can only pray for the peace of the souls of all the victims and the wisdom of our fellow leaders to find diplomatic solutions before the minute.”

Earlier, we also touched on the issue that the Armenian side has taken a distant position regarding the Iran-US-Israel military confrontation, especially in the Iranian direction, which was confirmed by Nikol Pashinyan’s statement. Since the unleashed war against Iran, the Armenian side has not distinguished itself by initiating close contacts with high-ranking officials of Iran, etc.

RA Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan had a telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart, and according to the message spread by the Iranian side, he expressed his willingness to provide humanitarian support. And the fact that no humanitarian aid was sent from Armenia to Iran is noteworthy here.

This is especially interesting, remembering the fact that in the case of the earthquake in Turkey, the Armenian side did not waste time and sent aid to Turkey. However, against the background of this caution of the RA authorities, it recently became known that Armenia will most likely sign the comprehensive strategic document with Iran during Pashinyan’s visit to Iran.

Unlike the official Yerevan, Baku, despite having serious differences with Iran, tried to make gestures towards Iran. Ilham Aliyev visited the Iranian embassy in Azerbaijan and expressed his condolences to the ambassador on the occasion of the death of Ali Khamenei, the supreme spiritual leader of Iran.

The Nakhichevan incident slightly changed Azerbaijan’s position, the leadership of Azerbaijan made several sharp statements, but these days it continues to maintain neutrality and caution, while maintaining close relations with Israel. Azerbaijan also sent humanitarian aid to Iran, by the way, after the Nakhijevan incident.

The authorities of Georgia are also showing noticeable caution, although a number of non-governmental figures note the growth of Iranian influence in Georgia, once a close partner of the United States.

Russian analyst, orientalist Victor Nadein-Raevsky 168.amtold that in the conditions of the Iran-US-Israel conflict, the positioning of the three countries of the South Caucasus is actually cautious, which is due not only to geopolitical calculations, but also to the vulnerability of the region.

He noted that the South Caucasus is in the immediate vicinity of the conflict, and any drastic statement or position can quickly turn into a political or security risk. For this reason, according to the analyst, all three countries are trying to avoid an open orientation and preserve the possibility of diplomatic maneuvering.

“Iran is an extremely important country for Armenia, unlike Azerbaijan and Georgia. This is especially due to the important strategic relations with Iran, Iran is not only an economic and energy partner for Armenia, but also a regional exit, especially in the conditions when Armenia has closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan. At the same time, Armenia has greatly deepened its relations with the West, so it cannot ignore the West’s position towards Iran, which is why the rhetoric and steps are extremely neutral, although the importance and role of Iran for Armenia cannot be overestimated,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

He believes that Azerbaijan’s position in terms of Iran is more complicated.

“On the one hand, Baku has close strategic and military cooperation with Israel, which is an important technological and defense partner for it. On the other hand, Iran is Azerbaijan’s immediate neighbor, and any drastic stance can aggravate the already tense relations with Tehran. For this reason, Baku is trying to maintain caution, not endangering either the partnership with Israel or the stability of relations with Iran.

In addition, Azerbaijan is trying to take steps in the Iranian direction to prove that it is neutral or supports Iran. In the case of Azerbaijan, the Western factor is not so significant, although at this stage, Azerbaijan also has a closer partnership with both the USA and the EU than before,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

Speaking about Georgia, he said that Georgia’s caution is mainly due to its foreign political balance.

“Tbilisi tries not to deepen the problems with the West, but at the same time avoids getting involved in regional military confrontations. The priority for Georgia is regional stability and the security of economic communications, as any escalation can endanger the energy and transport corridors that pass through the country. From this point of view, Georgia has concrete concerns,” the analyst noted, continuing that caution is important in a broader sense as well.

In his opinion, the South Caucasus is a region where the interests of big states intersect, and any miscalculation can quickly change the balance of security.

“The cautious policy of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan shows the fear that the tension in the Middle East can easily be transferred to the South Caucasus, as it was transferred to neighboring countries of Iran, where there are American bases,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

It should also be reminded that recently the President of the Republic of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian announced that a decision was made in Iran not to target the neighboring countries, if there is no threat from those countries.

“Those bases that are used to attack our country will remain our target within the scope of our legal right,” Pezeshkian said in a telephone conversation with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif.

—