Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict relations due to the border left undefined by the British colonialists until the end, like many other conflicts in the region, have a long history. However, their current escalation, which, in fact, has taken on the character of a so-called low-intensity war, cannot be considered outside of the context of the large-scale aggression of the USA and Israel against Iran in the neighborhood.

The first The inspiration for this war, which remains in the shadow of the Iranian events, pursues a very obvious goal: to neutralize Kabul, which has recently become closer to Tehran, and to involve nuclear Pakistan in forceful operations against Iran. In addition, China is put in a difficult situation at the same time, because Pakistan, and recently Afghanistan, are its close partners.

Thus, Beijing’s attention is also diverted from Iran. At the same time, behind the general image of bringing chaos to this large space, Washington’s geopolitical aspiration to ensure control over the transport corridors of the entire Eurasia is clearly visible.

On both sides of the infamous Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan, petty skirmishes and terror attacks by militant groups and organizations controlled by neither, such as ISIS-Khorasan, are a constant occurrence. In fact, their members do not recognize any authority in their area of ​​operation, so instead of mutual accusations, it would be more effective for Kabul and Islamabad to cooperate in the fight against these terrorists, which has not been done yet.

Moreover, On the eve of the start of the American-Israeli operation against Iran, Pakistan’s powerful airstrikes in the direction of the Afghan territory turned their conflictual relations into open interstate fighting, which continues with unceasing intensity.

Only on March 7, for example, Pakistan hit to the Afghan provinces of Paktia, Paktia, Khost, Maidan-Wardak and Kunar. Thousands of people have already died on both sides. The account of daily losses is tens and hundreds.  More than 100 thousand people became refugees.

At the same time, Pakistan announced its willingness to protect Saudi Arabia from “Iranian attacks” in accordance with the mutual defense agreement between them. In general, everything is proceeding according to the project written out of the region.

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid called for a meeting of the UN Security Council to take action to stop what he called “Pakistan’s attack on Afghanistan”. Earlier, Mujahid criticized the Security Council, saying that it has lost credibility and, in his words, has become “a tool in the hands of Western countries.”

Unfortunately, due to US obstruction, the outcome of the new session of this international body as well it is easy to predict.

World experts are still wondering what is the main trigger for Trump’s military action against Iran anyway: his personal whims, which contradict the US president’s own statements and plans, or Israel’s influence.

There is no universal answer. The White House’s hopes for a Nobel Peace Prize appear to have been put on hold while the drums of war thunder.

As for Netanyahu’s influence, his own interests are a bit more modest than this global action that has begun, far beyond the borders of a single country. It is enough for the Prime Minister of Israel to “dust” Iran and postpone the trial in corruption cases. Therefore, apparently, Washington is right when they say that they pushed Israel to start an operation, and not the other way around.

If we look at the actions of the administration of the United States in a more global context, the motives of the current belligerent behavior of the Americans can be also other, in their opinion, valid reasons.  In particular, the steps taken by Trump under the guise of peace negotiations over the past year to take the main transport hubs of Eurasia under American control are noteworthy, a step he is extremely proud of.

In the Caucasus, for example, it has “locked the North-South corridor” in the area of ​​the hypothetical Zangezur (Syunik) corridor in an agreement with Armenia and Azerbaijan.։ According to that project, without too much modesty named after Trump on the international path of peace and prosperity (TPIPP – not to be confused with, you know what), the establishment of an American guard base with up to a thousand military personnel is also planned in this zone.

And on the East-West axis, within the framework of which China has already spent up to 0.5 trillion dollars to advance the “Belt and Road” route, Trump has reached the allocation of his key link in Central Asia under the name of “middle corridor”. The operator of the latter, in agreement with Kazakhstan and other countries of the region, should also become the USA. In other words, TRIPP should be vaccinated there as well.

From the point of view of the current leader of the United States, the deal is super. The products are foreign and the control is American. All of Eurasia is dependent without war. But the war was necessary, as recent events show. Of course, such raider invasions on a global scale could not be organized by those powers that have preserved national sovereignty, which are located along the two axes.

Iran, not giving up the already concluded North-South projects, has started looking for alternative routes, bypassing Azerbaijan. It is no coincidence that the latter, although it has officially declared non-interference in the war against Iran, in practice takes a rather hostile position towards Tehran. In particular, Russian-Iranian agreements were reached on the activation of navigation through the Caspian Sea, which, among other things, would ensure full loading of the Volga shipyards.

The connection of Iranian railways with similar lines in Turkmenistan should be completed soon. Through it, the North-South route will be launched along the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea.

More significant are the plans to connect Iran’s Chabahar port directly to Central Asia via the Afghan cities of Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif by rail. For the post-Soviet countries there, it will be the shortest and most profitable exit to the world markets. And why then do they need TRIPP, which is also viewed with suspicion by China and Russia, the region’s main economic partners?։

And Reza Pahlavi or another more capable henchman of Washington in Iran will certainly not give up, hence the obsessive desire to change the regime at any cost.

In this light, the role of Afghanistan takes on a unique role. Maintaining their tough position, the Taliban, with the help of Chinese investments, have started an unprecedented infrastructural transformation in the country. A new Kabul for 3 million people is being built, railways and highways, huge canals and much more.

like this In the coming days, the 300-kilometer Wakhan Corridor between Afghanistan and China should be opened, which is more modern and in many ways superior to the famous Karakoram Highway between China and Pakistan. In the future, it is planned to build a railway along the Wakhan Corridor with the Mazari-Sharif entrance. Thus, the main cargo transportation of the East-West route can go through new routes through Afghanistan and Iran, leaving aside the parts that are firmly saddled by the USA. And Kabul, from the last dead end of world communications, which lacks railways at all, has the opportunity to turn into almost the main transport intersection of Eurasia.

It is not for nothing that Trump continues to demand that he “return” the Baghram Air Base to America, and without it, allegedly, there will be no settlement with Afghanistan and no lifting of sanctions from them. But the answer is as old as this country. “Come on, take it.” With all the current recklessness of the US administration, it is impossible to imagine that someone will stick their nose in there again.

It seems that the intention to exclude Iran and Afghanistan for the Eurasian transport corridors is one of the main motivations for the current US military expansion against them.

Moreover, Pakistan was chosen as the main proxy in the Afghan direction, which, in addition to the old enmity with Kabul, also has geopolitical reasons.։

Islamabad is promoting its own corridor for Chinese goods to enter the world market through the Karakoram Highway and the Pakistani port of Gwadar, located one and a half kilometers from Iran’s Chebehar.

He would hardly have started his current operations against Afghanistan, which are disrupting Chinese projects in that country, if he did not have approval from Washington.

Beijing is in a difficult situation, which has to choose between these two states։

For now, he is playing a conciliatory role, not wanting to completely abandon the alliance with Pakistan, in which many Chinese resources are invested. However logic suggests that an Iran-Afghan option would be preferable in many ways to a pragmatic China։ It is more comprehensive, allowing to solve the problems of connecting the North-South and East-West corridors, it is less vulnerable to the intervention of the West.

In addition, Pakistan’s de facto solidarity with American military operations against Iran is unlikely to score it points in the eyes of the Chinese.

The opposition, as well as the press, warn the authorities in Islamabad about the danger of serving western interests for the country. Thus, during the briefing, Farooq Sattar, the leader of the parliamentary faction of the “Movement for Justice” party of the ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan հայտարարել է. “as a result of a well-planned conspiracy, other Muslim countries are also drawn into the war without any reason.” Islamic League MP Ali Muhammad Khan condemned the attack on Iran and, referring to Trump, asked Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharaf: “Can a man who killed a great Muslim leader be a supporter of peace?”

Islamabad Daily Post writes that Washington and Tel Aviv are tempted to take advantage of Iran’s imaginary weakness, but regional realities have not disappeared anywhere. Prolonged crises narrow the range of allies and increase costs, reducing leverage. Pakistan’s strategic analysts “understand that an alliance with a superpower can quickly turn against the country if policies change depending on election cycles.”

They believe that “Pakistan, for its part, should not give in to the temptation of tactical victories in Afghanistan.” Alleged complicity in attempts to overthrow the regime in Kabul can lead to cross-border violence, refugee flows, and diplomatic isolation from neighbors. However, a complete refusal to cooperate with them will be expensive for Pakistan, whose economy is still dependent on external factors.

As for Trump’s role in the interregional crisis, it is a common practice for him. “nothing personal, just business with a little bloodshed”, because without “boxing”, the US economy, despite all the courage, can no longer withstand the usual competition. The American lion will obviously hit more than one pot with his tail swing during the fade, but will he be able to stick at least one?

DMITRI: MINI

fondsk.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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