ArmInfo.Despite the sharp period of geopolitical competition for the South Caucasus, global changes in the region are not expected for Moscow in the long term. Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, Chairman, Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Editor-in-Chief, Russia in Global Affairs journal, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
“We understand that this period cannot but influence the general situation in the region, including the situation in Armenia. Accordingly, we do not exclude shake-ups, which, however, are already taking place. The Pashinyan-Aliyev-Michel Brussels negotiations to be held on August 31 are also part of these processes., but, as we see, these negotiations do not cause much concern in Moscow,” he stressed. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Council of Europe President Charles Michel will meet on August 31 in Brussels. According to the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, the same issues that were the subject of discussion in Brussels earlier will be discussed at the meeting.
On August 20, information was spread in the mass media about the preparation of another Putin-Pashinyan- Aliyev meeting on August 31 in Moscow. It should be noted that this is the second time that instead of the meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan announced in Moscow, it takes place in Brussels. In total, three Pashinyan-Aliyev meetings took place in the Brussels format.
The analyst connects the reasons for such loyalty of Russia to the strengthening of the role of the EU in mediation in the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani problems, to the current priorities of Russia’s foreign policy. Noting the importance for the Russian Federation of any problems in the post-Soviet space, Lukyanov recalled that since February 24, Ukraine has become Moscow’s priority in this very space The reason for Moscow’s lack of proper response to all processes and impulses in the South Caucasus, without exception, the analyst believes is Ukraine. Hence, among other things, Moscow’s position aimed at a long- term solution to the Karabakh conflict. The latter, at the same time, retains all its geopolitical pillars throughout the region, in order to intensify its own efforts and policies after the resolution of the main Ukrainian problem.
“The South Caucasus, the post-Soviet space, like all of us, is going through another transitional period with all the accompanying difficulties and problems. And large and small geopolitical upheavals are an inseparable part of it. The significance of the region for Russia has not changed and will not change. And I don’t see any special reasons for Moscow’s concern about the prospects for ongoing geopolitical upheavals,” Lukyanov summed up.
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