Month: February 2015

Armenia’s Diaspora played minor role in Artsakh movement – Sargis Hatspanyan

14:28 * 22.02.15

Public and political figure Sargis Hatspanyan, as an Armenia Diaspora
representative, talked to Tert.am about the Armenian Diaspora’s role
in both the Artsakh liberation movement and Armenia’s revival.

Mr Hatspanyan, you are one of the few Armenian Diaspora
representatives who decided to join the Artsakh movement. What made
you come to the homeland to join the movement and, later, take part in
the war for Artsakh’s freedom?

When people rose in Armenia, we, in Paris, were holding rallies in
front of the Soviet embassy. But when volunteers were urged to go to
Artsakh, I saw no one was willing to. I was surprised because it
showed Armenian Diaspora’s true worth. Years later we knew that just a
few diasporic Armenians took part in the battles. If we speak of seven
million Armenians throughout the world at that time, but only a few of
then went to war, and comment is superfluous. But I felt
disappointment in Armenia, not in the Diaspora because I had been very
enthusiastic about all the people rising in Armenia. It was an
unprecedented situation on a global scale – almost a third of a
country’s population kept on standing for weeks, which, regrettably,
was followed by Azerbaijan-unleashed war, and our best guys went to
war and could liberate a small part of our homeland.

Mr Hatspanyan, do you think we are overestimating the Armenian Diaspora’s role?

The Armenian Diaspora’s role in both the Artsakh liberation movement
and Armenia’s revival is a minor one. Of course, there are reasons for
that, and I have repeatedly cited them. Armenians who scattered round
the world after the Armenian Genocide have always dreamt of free,
independent and united Armenia. After Armenian gained independence, it
was expected to be appreciated, but it was not. The Armenian Diaspora
has now shown its true worth – of course, I am speaking generally –
some people there are really patriotic and I cannot reproach them in
any way because they did their best. But I can cite an example: the
Hayastan All-Armenian Fund was established simultaneously with the
declaration of the Republic of Armenia. The fund released a report on
its activities for 1992-2002. The globally raised funds totaled US $61
million. And if you share US $61million between seven million people
during ten years, it does not even make US $1 per capita. This is an
answer to your question.
And if one member of each family in the Armenian Diaspora settled down
in Armenia, this country would be brilliant in all the areas of life.
Armenia should have been appreciated due to its resident population,
which has never taken place. On the contrary, it is diasporic
Armenians that met Armenians arriving from Armenia at the airports.

Mr Hatspanyan, what keeps diasporic Armenians from settling down in Armenia?

I cannot say. I have met many of political forces here that, instead
of helping repatriates settle down in Armenia kept on criticizing
Armenia, while their fellow countrymen were defending the border. To
put an end to this criticism I take diasporic Armenians who come with
me to the Yerablur pantheon and tell them that the best sons of our
nation are buried there. And they remain silent because they cannot
say anything.

From: Baghdasarian

Orange Foundation hosted students from 10 state universities and
distributed 100 scholarships

by Karina Manukyan
Saturday, February 21, 12:28

Today, within its partnership with the Armenian universities, Orange
Foundation has hosted 100 students, with high academic performance,
from Yerevan, Gavar, Goris, Gyumri, Ijevan, Kapan, Vanadzor and
Yeghegnadzor Universities. The students were welcomed in the Orange
headquarters to receive scholarships granted by the Orange Foundation,
as well as participate in a special session on “How to choose a career
and succeed a job interview”, delivered by HR specialist of Orange
Armenia. A company tour took some of the students to discover the most
interesting back office spaces of the company, generally closed for
external view. During the meeting the students as well had a chance to
learn about the company and address their questions to the General
Director of Orange Armenia and Chairman of the Board of Orange
Foundation Francis Gelibter, who presented the challenges and the
advantages of an international telecom company, as well as the
principles of its socially responsible policy.

“It has become a nice tradition, and in the scope of the social
programs already 4 years Orange Foundation support students to get
higher education. Our objective is to ease the financial burden for
their families, and contribute to the further professional development
of the youth not only from Yerevan but as well regional universities.
We believe that at today’s session students will find the most
important keys to fully express their professional potential in
future” said Francis Gelibter, Chairman of the Board of Orange
Foundation.

Since the launch of the cooperation with the universities, established
in 2011, circa 200 students have passed their internships in Orange
Armenia. During this period Orange Foundation has granted
scholarships to more than 350 students.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Volunteers from the Diaspora visited VivaCell-MTS

by Erik Abrahamyan
Saturday, February 21, 12:27

VivaCell-MTS General Manager Ralph Yirikian met young volunteers of
Birthright Armenia and encouraged their initiative to get closer to
their roots. Today VivaCell-MTS hosted a group of young Diaspora
Armenian volunteers from different countries aged between 20 and 32
years, who serve as volunteers for an average of 6 months each, and
are ready to apply their professional skills in the regions of our
country.

VivaCell-MTS General Manager Ralph Yirikian presented the volunteers
with key aspects of VivaCell-MTS’ operation, the key values guiding
the Company, as well as its strategy in the sphere of corporate
responsibility and key areas of intervention. Ralph Yirikian also
presented the young people from the Diaspora with the Company’s
activities aimed at increasing awareness on the genocide and its
recognition. In particular, the Company supported the initiatives of
the Armenian Genocide Museum-Institute in publication of several
important monographs by eye-witnesses of the genocide, acquisition of
books from different collections in Armenia and outside the country.
The Company’s staff participated on voluntary basis in tree-planting
activities and cleaning on the territory of the monument.
VivaCell-MTS pays particular importance and attention to programs
aimed at inviting more young Armenians from the Diaspora to the
Homeland for engaging in volunteer activities and integrating with the
country’s culture. VivaCell-MTS finds that the best way to learn about
Armenia is not just to consider Armenia as a touristic destination
where one can familiarize himself with numerous cultural and
historical sites but also as an opportunity to work in the
professional area or just contribute through volunteering in projects
aimed at improving areas of the society. Discovering Armenia means
getting to know it from inside by becoming a member of the society,
feeling the pulse of the country, enriching own personal experience
through communicating and getting in touch with the daily lives of
different people, and much more. It is also important to engage in
friendly relationships with peers and create personal connections with
potential for future professional and business relationships. “Your
decision to get to your roots is one of the greatest decisions of your
life. It is self-rewarding in that your embrace the essence of your
identity in the country of your ancestors, your grand grandfathers,”
VivaCell-MTS General Manager Ralph Yirikian said to young Armenians
from the United States, the Russian Federation, Syria, Mexico, Lebanon
and Canada.

VivaCell-MTS (K-Telecom CJSC) is Armenia’s leading telecommunications
operator, having the widest 2G/3.75G/4G network reach and spreading a
wide range of Voice and Data services all across Armenia. Having the
best of the Armenian people interest at heart since its launch on 1st
July 2005 and in a short period of time VivaCell-MTS has managed to
build a nationwide network and a considerable customer base.
VivaCell-MTS drives innovation and aims at always being at the
forefront of any development serving the Armenian mobile
communications market. The company follows the guidance provided by
ISO 26000 (International Standard of Social Responsibility).

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From: Baghdasarian

Turkey linking major arms purchase to Armenian genocide recognition

February 20, 2015

Eurasianet – Turkey is reportedly linking its purchase a multi
billion-dollar air-defense system to whether the bidder countries
recognize the Armenian genocide.

That news, reported by a number of Turkish media, is the latest
unexpected turn in the multi-year saga over the arms deal. The
original bidders for the deal were companies representing the United
States, Europe, China, and Russia, giving the program the air of a
geopolitical litmus test. When Turkey announced that it planned to
give the Chinese company the contract, it faced a barrage of pressure
from its NATO allies who were concerned that linking that system with
NATO air defense equipment already in Turkey could expose NATO secrets
to China.

All along, Turkey has denied that there was any political subtext to
its decision, saying that its choice of China was related solely to
questions of price and the fact that China would hand over more of the
technology to Turkey. Now, though, that appears to have changed. With
the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide approaching in April,
Ankara is reportedly waiting to see how the various bidders mark that
event.

“Rumors in political circles in Ankara said that no decision will be
made over the missile defense system winner before [April 24] since
Turkey wants to first see France and the U.S.’s position on the 1915
incidents,” reported the pro-government Daily Sabah. “An agreement may
be made with China if the U.S. and French administrations take a
‘pro-Armenian’ stance.”

Hurriyet Daily News has reported the same thing:

“We have agreed with the government leaders not to rush to a decision
any time soon,” one defense procurement official said. “A decision
before April 24 is out of the question.”

A senior diplomat confirmed that Ankara first wants to see the U.S.
and French positions on the “genocide claims” before awarding a
sizeable contract “to a bidder potentially from one of these
countries.”

“How these countries observe the centennial of the events [of
1915-1920] will be an important input for our final decision,” he
said.

And a “top government official for defense and security issues” told
newspaper Defense News last month: “One imminent political
deliberation is whether the US Congress will recognize the alleged
Armenian genocide in April. We will wait Congress’ move before making
a decision on the contract.”

Meanwhile, Turkey’s Ministry of Defense has said that whichever system
it buys will not be linked to NATO’s. That would seem to open the door
for buying the Chinese equipment. But it also has extended the
deadline for the Chinese, American, and European bidders until the
summer — as Defense News notes, the sixth time it has made such an
extension.

It’s not clear whether official recognition of the Armenian genocide
has any more chance to get through Congress this year than it has
before. But arguments like Ankara’s have held sway in the past: in
2010, a coalition of American defense contractors wrote a letter to
Congressarguing against genocide recognition: “Alienating a
significant NATO ally and trading partner would have negative
repercussions for U.S. geopolitical interests and efforts to boost
both exports and employments.”

But the U.S. bid was relatively unlikely to win; the second-place
offer, after China’s, was that of Eurosam, based in France, a country
which not only recognized the genocide but even criminalized genocide
denial.

From: Baghdasarian

Armenian Genocide website launched at USC

February 21, 2015 10:10

The University of Southern California Institute of Armenian Studies
has launched Year100.org, which is devoted to the centennial of the
Armenian Genocide.

STEPANAKERT, FEBRUARY 21, ARTSAKHPRESS: “Year100.org does more that
just shed light on the past and its place in memory and scholarship
today; it is, in its broadest sense, a centralized indicator of
directions that scholarship and community can take,” said Salpi
Ghazarian, Director of the Institute of Armenian Studies. The site is
in three languages: English, Armenian and Turkish.

The purpose is to reach a broad range of scholars, students and anyone
wanting more information about the Genocide itself, or trying still to
understand its causes and consequences, and the ways in which it is
remembered, studied and discussed. The content on Year100.org is
significantly enhanced by the presentation of images by Armenian
photographers. “The variety of types of events – readings, concerts,
books, conferences, exhibitions, lectures – and the variety of
locations from South America to Southeast Asia — will also spur
further sharing by communities, institutions, organizations thus
broadening the reach and impact of each activity, and supporting
deeper inquiry into the subject,” concluded Ghazarian.

Artsakhpress.am

Azerbaijan once again spreads slander at an official level

February 20, 2015 13:11

“Azerbaijan once again spreads slander at an official level, trying to
make other nations serve for its own problems’ solution,”

STEPANAKERT, FEBRUARY 21, ARTSAKHPRESS:

Responding to the statement of the Chairman of Azerbaijani State
Committee on Religious Organizations Affairs Mubariz Qurbanli, that
Armenians have destroyed numerous Muslim, Jewish, Christian and Afghan
monuments in the “occupied territories”, the Head of the Department of
Ethnic Minorities and Religious Affairs of NKR Government staff Ashot
Sargsyan said.

“All the monuments in Artsakh have been protected, regardless of their
origin or religious affiliation. Unlike Azerbaijan, we preserve and
reconstruct antiquities, but not eliminate. Shushiand Aghdam (Akna)
mosques still remain as excellent examples.

They are Muslim cultural and spiritual values, and we respect them.
Otherwise, why have these mosques still existed,” he said, adding that
there are many episodes when Armenian monuments have been vandalized,
graves desecrated and completely destroyed by Azeris.

According to the Head of the Department, on July 4 of 2009 under the
mediation of the Russian Federation, Azerbaijani delegation comprised
of Milli Majlis deputies Asim Mollazade and Rovshan Rzayev,
journalists, intellectuals and Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polad
Bulbul Oglu, visited Shushi and saw with their own eyes Muslim
(Persian) mosque and cemetery.

“Bulbul Oglu also visited his father’s house in Shushi, and was
impressed how it had been preserved,” Sargsyan noted, adding that the
Armenians of Artsakh have been living peacefully side-by-side with
Russians, Greeks, Jews, Azeris, Georgians, Persians and other nations.
But today only Russian and Greek communities are officially registered
as organized communities in the country.

“By the way, I would like to focus on another important fact: in the
midst of Artsakh war, in 1992, the Supreme Council adopted a law that
Artsakh ethnic minorities could not only avoid military operations,
but also if they wanted, the state could provide transportation for
their secure transfer to Yerevan. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani side was
sending the representatives of its country’s ethnic minorities to take
part in military operations, and there are many proven facts about
it,” he stressed.

In the interview with “Artsakhpress”, the Head of the Department of
Monuments’ Protection and Research of NKR Government’s Tourism Office
Slava Sargsyan told that this is not the first time that Azerbaijan
has made such an absurd statement.

“In Artsakh both Muslim and Christian monuments are protected equally.
If one desires, he can see with his own eyes that Azerbaijani side
spreads slander,” Sargsyan added. He also clarified that there are no
Jewish monuments in Artsakh, because there hasn’t been a Jewish
community here. With regard to Afghan monuments, Azeris distort the
facts and certainly by the word “Afghan” mean Armenian ancient
monuments.

“Since Soviet times Azeris have presented all Armenian historical
monuments in Artsakh as Afghan, to show that Armenians are only
newcomers.

And this absurdity has been performed in such an illiterate way, that
for example 200 Armenian inscriptions on the walls of Gandzasar
Monastery were interpreted as “Afghan,” Sargsyan mentioned, adding
that even Armenian cross-stones in Akna with inscriptions and
ornaments were translated by azeris as “khashdasher”, considering them
as Azerbaijani monuments.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

IS has Ottoman Turks as role models and heroes: The Daily Citizen

February 20, 2015 19:36

History sometimes has a cruel way of repeating its worst episodes. One
of the most horrendous that is happening now is the obliteration of
Christians, Yezidis, Shia Muslims and Alawites by the Islamic State.

STEPANAKERT, FEBRUARY 20, ARTSAKHPRESS: This is a repeat of what
happened a century ago, Ina Fay Manly said in an article published at
The Daily Citizen.

“Toward the end of the Ottoman caliphate (1299-1922), Muslims began a
systematic slaughter of Armenians, Syriac Orthodox Christians and
Assyrians with unspeakably cruel brutality, the worst carried out
against children. U.S. Ambassador Henry Morgenthau wrote in his
memoirs that Turkish officials bragged to him about their nightly
meetings where they would enthusiastically share their latest torture
techniques used on the Armenians. That Genocide (1915-1919) claimed
more than a million Armenians plus more than 250,000 others. By 1923
more than two million Armenians that once lived in the Turkish
caliphate were gone. Gruesome slaughter and forced evacuation marches
into the desert claimed many, but some survived to tell the story.

During the reign of Caliph Abdul Hamid II, ethnic cleansing was the
order of the day. At a meeting of Christian ministers, laymen and a
few of their wives, Turkish soldiers arrived and told them to convert
to Islam or die. After a brief discussion, all 70 refused so they were
murdered and their bodies dumped in a ravine. One miraculously
survived to describe the massacre,” the article said.

“The jihad Genocide of the Armenians was carried out by Muslims. Not
all Muslim Turks and Arabs approved or participated, but the jihadists
who did were awarded all the property of their victims and took any
remaining women and children as slaves.

This may seem like ancient history, but there is a present-day
connection. A brief mention in a news article in The Daily Citizen
brings the story full circle. Recently, Islamic State fighters
destroyed the Armenian Genocide Memorial Church in Der Zor, Syria.
This church had sheltered the remains of Armenian genocide victims.

Andrew Bostom, a noted Islam scholar, wrote, “Modern genocide
historians … often cite a comment by Hitler that the mass killings
of the Armenians served the Nazi leader as an ‘inspirational’
precedent for predictable impunity.” No one had gone to the aid of the
Armenians either.

The present Islamic State has role models and heroes – some
monstrously evil Ottoman Turkish Muslims of a century ago,” the
article concludes.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Turkey Denies Report on Cancellation of Gallipoli Commemoration Events

By Weekly Staff on February 22, 2015

Sources close to the Turkish government have denied Sunday’s Zaman’s
report claiming the Gallipoli commemoration events have been canceled,
according to Daily Sabah. “Sources from both the Presidency and Prime
Ministry have refuted the claims that the commemorations have been
canceled, refraining from offering further details over how many and
which countries will participate in the Gallipoli centennial
commemoration,” reported Sabah, which highlighted Zaman’s link to the
Gulen Movement.

On Feb. 21, Sunday’s Zaman reported that the commemoration ceremonies
marking the centennial of the Gallipoli Campaign of World War I were
canceled. The paper said the reason for cancellation was the low
number of heads of states who agreed to attend Ankara for the
ceremonies that were scheduled to take place on April 24–Armenian
Genocide commemoration day.

The paper quoted a government official, who wished to remain
anonymous, as saying, “The Gallipoli celebrations have been canceled.
All preparations have been suspended as the number of RSVPs to the
invitation is not positive. Only five countries have accepted the
invitation and they will not be represented by high-level officials.”

Leading up to the Gallipoli commemorations, Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan had sent official invitations to more than 100 world
leaders, including Armenian President Serge Sarkisian, to partake in
the ceremonies. The date designated for these commemoration
events–April 24–created uproar among Armenians worldwide, while
Turkish human rights groups urged world leaders to boycott the
Gallipoli events.

On Jan. 16, Sarkisian responded to Erdogan’s invitation to Turkey on
April 24, in a strongly worded letter. “Turkey continues its
conventional denial policy and is perfecting its instrumentation for
distorting history. This time, Turkey is marking the 100th anniversary
of the Battle of Gallipoli on April 24, even though the battle began
on March 18, 1915 and lasted until late January 1916, while the
Allies’ operation started on April 25,” he wrote, adding, “What is the
purpose [of this] if not to distract the world’s attention from the
100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide?”

Khojali : Pretext to Incite Ethnic Hate Against Armenians in Turkey

By Contributor on February 22, 2015

On Feb. 20, the Human Rights Association of Turkey issued a statement
in response to a planned anti-Armenian demonstration in Istanbul,
under the banner, `Demonstrations Condemning the Khojali Genocide and
Armenian Terror.’ The Human Rights Association states that it has
petitioned the Istanbul Governorate ahead of the Feb. 22 protest,
which has already given rise to anti-Armenian sentiments.

The full text of the statement is printed below:

Khojali : Pretext to Incite Ethnic Hate Against Armenians in Turkey

On 19 February 2015, the Human Rights Association presented the
Governorate of Istanbul with a petition warning the officials that the
`Demonstrations Condemning the Khojali Genocide and Armenian Terror,’
to be held in Kadıköy, Istanbul on Feb. 22, have incited ethnic hatred
from the moment they were preannounced.

The demonstrations are organized by the Association of Reformist Youth
in Azerbaijan, with support from the Turkish Hearths Youth Branches
and the Turanist Movement Platform.

As our petition to the Governorate reports, militants from the
Turanist Movement Platform photograph and publish their public
displays including graffiti, banners, and posters in central locations
in Istanbul. In the declaration that they distribute in shops and that
we enclose with this petition, they incite violence by labeling
activists against racism as `terrorists.’ Persons who somehow
perpetually remain `unidentified’ write racist graffiti, such as
`You’re Either Turkish or Bastards’ or `You Are All Armenian, All
Bastards,’ on church walls in Kadıköy, in addition to hanging flags
depicting the ultra-nationalist symbol (mythical wolf).

Protesters chanted `You are all Armenians, you are all bastards’
during the Khojali demonstrations on Taksim Square on Feb. 26, 2012.

Khojali is but a pretext for the real purpose of inciting ethnic hate
and hostility against the Armenians of Turkey, as globally observed in
the course of the Khojali demonstrations on Taksim Square on Feb. 26,
2012. Right before the eyes of the Minister of the Interior, on the
same square where he was making a speech, the demonstrators displayed
banners saying `You Are All Armenians, You are All Bastards,’ while
shouting hate-filled slogans against Armenians.

The corrupt and shady collaboration between Azerbaijan and Turkey thus
comes to fruition: The organizers are able to brandish their schemes
for Feb. 22 because they have no doubt that the officials of the
Republic of Turkey will lavish them with endless tolerance.

In the petition we presented on record, we reminded the Governorate
that the racism displayed both at the identically themed
demonstrations of 2012 and at the preannouncement phase of the Feb. 22
demonstrations for `Condemning Armenian Terror’ constitutes a crime
per article 216 of the Turkish Penal Code on `public humiliation or
incitement to hatred and enmity.’ We also emphasized that incitement
to racist violence violates article 14 of the European Convention on
Human Rights, which prohibits discrimination.

We have requested that the Office of the Governor take preventative
measures against slogans, writings, banners, and threats inciting
ethnic hate or enmity; that, in cases where they occur, all legal
proceedings mechanisms be activated immediately after the
demonstrations, and that the state fulfill all its responsibilities
with utmost efficacy.

We now publicly reiterate our warning: You, officials who refrain from
criminalizing racist slogans on church walls, who officially or
unofficially permit protests and demonstrations preannounced by such
slogans, if you do not enforce the law, you will become partners in
the crime that is being publicly preannounced.

We address the prime minister: You have just paid your tributes to
Hrant Dink, calling him `a venerable Anatolian public intellectual.’
Have you forgotten that banners saying `Damned Be Hrant Dink’ were
displayed right in front of his newspaper headquarters? Do you not
remember that on Feb. 23, 2014, a group, including a number of
Azerbaijanis, and calling itself `The Soldiers of Alpaslan TürkeÃ…?,’
materialized in front of the Agos newspaper at whose doorstep Dink had
been murdered? Their banners read, `Long Live Ogün Samasts, Damned be
Hrant Dinks’We Salute Azerbaijan and Continue the Fight.’ We had filed
a criminal complaint then as well. Your prosecutors did not lift a
finger.

The so-called NGOs of the state of Azerbaijan, where oppositional
journalists are left to rot in prison and honest public intellectuals
are abandoned to lifelong threats of lynching, we ask you: What are
you doing in Turkey? What business brings you to Istanbul? No one
believes that you mourn for those killed in Khojali; it is not in
their memory that you fight. You come to Turkey to support anti-
Armenians and menace the Armenians of Turkey, who have no connection
to Khojali.

A word to hatemongers in Turkey, who join forces with Azerbaijani
anti-Armenians: Save us your lies. It is not Khojali that concerns
you. It never was Khojali that concerned you. Your true intent is to
intimidate the Armenians of Turkey’and all non-Turkish, non-Muslim
peoples’and exacerbate their insecure existence.

The very existence of human rights defenders is warranted by the cause
of resisting and fighting against atrocities and persecution in Turkey
and in the world. However, it falls yet again on human rights
defenders to fight against those who exploit atrocities and victims’
pain for their own purposes of carrying racist violence across
borders.

We, human rights defenders, invite all to unite as one body against
racism, racist violence, discrimination and hate, in order to show
that you are alone in your schemes, to isolate you in society, and to
expose you before public conscience.

We remind the officials, once again, that they will be held
accountable for the public display of ethnic hate, the bloodiest
instances of which are only too fresh in our memory.

Human Rights Association, Istanbul Branch
Committee Against Racism and Discrimination

Russia ‘Arming Armenia and Azerbaijan’ As Hostilities Increase

BY STAFF
– POSTED ON FEBRUARY 18, 2015POSTED IN: ARMENIA, NEWS

By Felicity Capon
newsweek.com

A resurgence of fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops over
the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has led to analysts warning of
escalating hostilities and even an “accidental war” between the two
countries. They also indicate that Russia could use the conflict as a
way to consolidate power in the region.

Two Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers and one Armenian civilian have
been killed this month alone, and it is thought that at least a dozen
have been killed in the conflict since the start of the new year.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a landlocked mountainous region, and is the
subject of a two-decade long conflict between Azerbaijan, in whose
territory the region lies, and its predominantly Armenian community.

Officially, active hostilities ended in 1994 when a ceasefire was
reached, but skirmishes along the border have been a common feature of
the conflict since then. However, experts are now warning that this
year’s developments have been much worse than usual with increased
casualties, both civilian and military, sustained on both sides. Some
reports estimate ceasefire violations stand at around 5,000 for
January–the highest monthly figure since the truce.

Richard Giragosian, the director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC),
an independent thinktank in Armenia, told Newsweek that he is
“increasingly concerned of a war by accident, based on small
skirmishes spiralling out of control” and says that both sides could
be “rushing headlong into a dangerous situation.” He argues that the
number of casualties is very unusual given the topography and the
terrain, with fighting usually confined to the summer. He also expects
a much bigger surge in fighting over the coming months.

Giragosian describes how opposing forces on the frontline have come
much closer to each other in terms of physical proximity than at any
time since the truce, and that the battle space has also expanded,
with Azerbaijan attacking Armenia proper, and not just the
Nagorno-Karabakh border.

Both sides have been much more willing to use arms in the last few
months, and as frustrations about the stalling peace process have
increased, an arms race has escalated, mainly instigated by
Azerbaijan, according to Giragosian. Armenia and Azerbaijan are among
the 10 countries with the highest levels of militarisation in the
world, a 2014 study found.

Russia is the main supplier of arms to both sides and, with the
ongoing crisis between Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian
military as well as Russia’s reportedly aggressive occupational policy
against Georgia, experts are concerned that Putin is considering a
bolder and much riskier move to consolidate power in the region.

Giragosian explains that “The one wildcard in this situation is
Russia. For Russia, the status quo is best: no peace, no war. But
Putin may be tempted by a risky move to provoke fighting to deploy
peacekeepers in order to ensure leverage. Events in Ukraine prove that
Moscow lacks a rational actor.”

At the same time, rumours have been circulating in the Azerbaijani
press that the U.S. is funding the Nagorno-Karabakh regime, fuelled by
a powerful Armenian-American lobby. Newsweek cannot substantiate these
claims but Giragosian says that American funding was provided in the
past and has been suspended for the past two fiscal years because of
an inability to oversee the expenditure.

John Macleod, of the London-based Institute for War and Peace
Reporting, says: “Things are particularly bad and there have been more
incidents at the moment. There is always the danger that one country
will overstep the mark and it will spread like wildfire and there will
be war before you know it.”

“We don’t exactly know what Russia’s interests or the implications of
its involvement are. But the Russians are an increasingly pro active
regional player and harbour territorial interests for sure.” Macleod
believes it is “feasible” that Russia would send “peacekeeping” troops
to the region under the pretence of bolstering its sphere of
influence.

Civilians are also increasingly getting caught up in the violence,
with the Armenian press reporting several casualties, including the
case of a young man who last year wandered into Azerbaijani territory
before reportedly committing suicide in Azerbaijani custody. Last
November, Azerbaijan shot down an attack Armenian helicopter as it
flew along the ceasefire line, killing three Armenians on board.

The timing of the conflict is also key as this year marks the 100th
anniversary of the genocide of Armenians in Turkey, which could
aggravate the already tense situation.

From: A. Papazian