Sleeping with Our Enemy: Russia Sells Weapons to Azerbaijan
HETQ Armenia: Investigative Journalists
13:08, February 21, 2015
By David Boyajian
Russia has sold some $4 billion worth of modern weapons to Azerbaijan
in the past few years, with perhaps more to come.
These include S-300 air defense missiles, Mi-35Mcombat helicopters,
T-90 tanks, Kornetanti-tank missiles, MSTA-S 152mm self-propelled
artillery, and the highly destructive Smerch Multiple Launch Rocket
System.
Since Azerbaijan’s 1994 defeat in the Karabagh/Artsakh war, its
leaders have declared their intention to seize Artsakh by force.
Azeris regularly shoot across, and try to penetrate, Artsakh’s
ceasefire line. They have made territorial claims on Armenia and are
even shelling villages in Armenia itself.
Armenia and Russia are allies and have a mutual defense pact. Russian
troops help guard Armenia’s border with Turkey. Armenia is Russia’s
only ally in the Caucasus. Why then is Russia supplying sophisticated
weapons to a country that is not just Armenians’ enemy but also
hostile to Russian interests?
Selling to the Enemy
Arms sales generate immediate profit for Russia plus continuing income
from spare parts and future upgrades. The Russian military may also
reason that it knows best how to counter its own weapons should it go
to war with Azerbaijan. Perhaps Russia is embedding secret hardware
and software vulnerabilities into Azeri weapons to disable them should
the need arise.
Russia argues that if it won’t sell weapons to Azerbaijan, other
countries will. Yet Baku has bought arms elsewhere; $1.6 billion worth
from Israel, including Hermes drones and Spike anti-tank missiles, and
significant amounts from Belarus, Turkey, and Ukraine.
By having Azerbaijan partly dependent on Russian weaponry, Moscow
presumes it is co-opting Azeris and making them less likely to join
NATO and supply gas and oil to the West. Are Azeris really that
gullible? Baku could just be buying time until, with Turkey and NATO;
it can strike back at Russia’s vulnerable underbelly.
Is Russia selling arms to Azerbaijan because it is unhappy that
Armenia has cordial relations with the U.S., EU, and NATO? Probably
not. Russia has always found less drastic ways to express its
displeasure, such as increasing its natural gas prices.
But Armenians need not worry, says Russia, because it sells defensive
weapons to Yerevan, reportedly at reduced prices, which neutralize the
offensive ones that Baku buys.
Though Armenians currently hold the military advantage in Artsakh, can
defensive weapons really match Azerbaijan’s offensive ones? And can
Armenia, whose economy is only 13 to 20% of Azerbaijan’s, afford them?
Yerevan may be paying not in cash but rather in factories,
infrastructure, real estate, minerals, and debt. That increases
Russian’s already considerable control over Armenia. And notice that
Russia profits from selling weapons to both sides.
Russian Betrayals
Russia does not, of course, want Azerbaijan (or Turkey) to overrun
Armenia. That would create a pan-Turkic corridor from Turkey to
Azerbaijan. The U.S. and NATO would use it to dominate the Caucasus,
Caspian Sea, and probably Turkic Central Asia.
Artsakh is a different matter. It has no military agreements with
Russia. Indeed, Moscow might not care if Azerbaijan overran Artsakh
since that by itself would not create a pan-Turkic corridor.
Russia might even want a new Artsakh war if it crippled Azerbaijan’s
energy infrastructure and destroyed its gas and oil pipelines that lie
just north of Artsakh’s borders. Or, depending on what Baku gives
Moscow in return, Russia could even help Azerbaijan defeat Artsakh.
After all, post-WW I, Soviet Russia gave Artsakh and Nakhichevan to
Azerbaijan, handed Armenian territory to Turkey, and delivered weapons
to Turkish forces under Kemal Ataturk.
Turkey later turned against Russia and eventually joined NATO, while
Azeris remained hostile to Moscow. Azeris and Turks outsmarted the
Russians.
Some Armenians say that Jewish Bolsheviks, unlike the Russian Orthodox
nationalists who allegedly control Russia now, were mainly responsible
for those disasters.
Nevertheless, arms sales to Azerbaijan and Moscow’s massive trade and
natural gas deals with Turkey remind Armenians of past Russian
betrayals.
Armenia and Artsakh’s Security
To hedge against more Russian betrayals, and for economic, scientific,
educational, and religious-cultural reasons, Armenia understandably
maintains friendly relations with the U.S. and Europe.
Armenia cannot, however, look to the U.S. and NATO for military
security. The latter regard Turkey as not only weightier than Armenia,
but also as the horse on which to gallop into the Caucasus, Caspian,
and beyond. Therefore, Armenia allies itself with Russia. Without
Armenia, of course, Russia will lose the Caucasus and much more to
NATO.
As Moscow aspires to someday be the leader of all Eurasian countries,
it is attempting – in vain, undoubtedly – to lure Turkey and
Azerbaijan away from a Western orientation. Failing that, Russia hopes
such relations will produce short- to medium-term economic and
political gains. For Russia’s own sake, it should examine its past
pro-Turkic missteps.
Armenia and Russia will probably remain in a cycle of mutual need and
suspicion for some time.
As Armenia and Artsakh face the future, therefore, deeper insight into
Russian strategy and intentions is essential.
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David Boyajian is a freelance Armenian American journalist. Many of
his articles are archived at Armeniapedia.org.