THREE FRONTS FOR RUSSIA: HOW WASHINGTON WILL FAN THE FLAMES OF CHAOS IN CENTRAL ASIA?
Sri Lanka Guardian
Feb 24 2015
by Ivan Lizan
Translated by Robin
( February 24, 2015, Boston, Sri Lanka Guardian) U.S. Gen. “Ben”
Hodges’ statement that within four or five years Russia could
develop the capability to wage war simultaneously on three fronts
is not only an acknowledgment of the Russian Federation’s growing
military potential but also a promise that Washington will obligingly
ensure that all three fronts are right on the borders of the Russian
Federation.
In the context of China’s inevitable rise and the soon-to-worsen
financial crisis, with the concomitant bursting of asset bubbles,
the only way for the United States to maintain its global hegemony
is to weaken its opponents. And the only way to achieve that goal is
to trigger chaos in the republics bordering Russia.
That is why Russia will inevitably enter a period of conflicts and
crises on its borders.
And so the first front in fact already exists in the Ukraine,
the second will most likely be between Armenia and Azerbaijan
over Nagorno-Karabakh, and the third, of course, will be opened in
Central Asia.
If the war in Ukraine leads to millions of refugees, tens of thousands
of deaths, and the destruction of cities, defrosting the Karabakh
conflict will completely undermine Russia’s entire foreign policy in
the Caucasus.
Every city in Central Asia is under threat of explosions and attacks.
So far this “up-and-coming front” has attracted the least media
coverage – Novorossiya dominates on national television channels, in
newspapers, and on websites -, but this theater of war could become
one of the most complex after the conflict in the Ukraine.
A subsidiary of the Caliphate under Russia’s belly
The indisputable trend in Afghanistan – and the key source of
instability in the region – is to an alliance between the Taliban
and the Islamic State. Even so, the formation of their union is in
its early days, references to it are scarce and fragmentary, and
the true scale of the activities of the IS emissaries is unclear,
like an iceberg whose tip barely shows above the surface of the water.
But it has been established that IS agitators are active in Pakistan
and in Afghanistan’s southern provinces, which are controlled by the
Taliban. But, in this case, the first victim of chaos in Afghanistan is
Pakistan, which at the insistence of, and with help from, the United
States nurtured the Taliban in the 1980s. That project has taken on a
life of its own and is a recurring nightmare for Islamabad, which has
decided to establish a friendlier relationship China and Russia. This
trend can be seen in the Taliban’s attacks on Pakistani schools,
whose teachers now have the right to carry guns, regular arrests
of terrorists in the major cities, and the start of activities in
support of tribes hostile to the Taliban in the north.
The latest legislative development in Pakistan is a constitutional
amendment to expand military court jurisdiction [over civilians].
Throughout the country, terrorists, Islamists and their sympathizers
are being detained. In the northwest alone, more than 8,000
arrests have been made, including members of the clergy. Religious
organizations have been banned and IS emissaries are being caught.
Since the Americans do not like putting all their eggs in one basket,
they will provide support to the government in Kabul, which will allow
them to remain in the country legitimately, and at the same time to
the Taliban, which is transforming itself into IS. The outcome will be
a state of chaos in which the Americans will not formally take part;
instead, they will sit back on their military bases, waiting to see
who wins. And then Washington will provide assistance to the victor.
Note that its security services have been supporting the Taliban for a
long time and quite effectively: some of the official security forces
and police in Afghanistan are former Taliban and Mujahideen.
Method of destruction
The first way to destabilize Central Asia is to create problems on
the borders, along with the threat that Mujahideen will penetrate the
region. The testing of the neighbours has already started; problems
have arisen in Turkmenistan, which has even had to ask Kabul to hold
large-scale military operations in the border provinces. Tajikistan
has forced the Taliban to negotiate the release of the border guards
it abducted, and the Tajik border service reports that there is a
large group of Mujahideen on its borders.
In general, all the countries bordering Afghanistan have stepped up
their border security.
The second way is to send Islamists behind the lines. The process
has already begun: the number of extremists in Tajikistan alone grew
three-fold last year; however, even though they are being caught, it
obviously will not be feasible to catch all of them. Furthermore, the
situation is aggravated by the return of migrant workers from Russia,
which will expand the recruiting base. If the stream of remittances
from Russia dries up, the outcome may be popular discontent and
managed riots.
Kyrgyz expert Kadir Malikov reports that $70 million has been allocated
to the IS military group Maverenahr, which includes representatives
of all the Central Asian republics, to carry out acts of terrorism
in the region. Special emphasis is placed on the Fergana Valley as
the heart of Central Asia.
Another point of vulnerability is Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections,
scheduled for this fall. The initiation of a new set of color
revolutions will lead to chaos and the disintegration of countries.
Self-supporting wars
Waging war is expensive, so the destabilization of the region must
be self-supporting or at least profitable for the U.S.
military-industrial complex. And in this area Washington has had some
success: it has given Uzbekistan 328 armored vehicles that Kiev had
requested for its war with Novorossiya. At first glance, the deal isn’t
profitable because the machines were a gift, but in reality Uzbekistan
will be tied to U.S. spare parts and ammunition. Washington made a
similar decision on the transfer of equipment and weapons to Islamabad.
But the United States has not been successful in its attempts to
impose its weapons systems on India: the Indians have not signed
any contracts, and Obama was shown Russian military hardware when he
attended a military parade.
Thus the United States is drawing the countries in the region into
war with its own proteges – the Taliban and Islamic State – and at
the same time is supplying its enemies with weapons.
***
So 2015 will be marked by preparations for widespread destabilization
in Central Asia and the transformation of AfPak into an Islamic State
subsidiary on the borders of Russia, India, China, and Iran. The
start of full-scale war, which will inevitably follow once chaos
engulfs the region, will lead to a bloodbath in the “Eurasian Balkans,”
automatically involving more than a third of the world’s population and
almost all the United States’ geopolitical rivals. It’s an opportunity
Washington will find too good to miss.
Russia’s response to this challenge has to be multifaceted: involving
the region in the process of Eurasian integration, providing military,
economic, and political assistance, working closely with its allies
in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS, strengthening
the Pakistani army, and of course assisting with the capture of the
bearded servants of the Caliphate.
But the most important response should be the accelerated modernization
of its armed forces as well as those of its allies and efforts to
strengthen the Collective Security Treaty Organization and give it
the right to circumvent the highly inefficient United Nations.
The region is extremely important: if Ukraine is a fuse of war, then
Central Asia is a munitions depot. If it blows up, half the continent
will be hit.
From: Baghdasarian
http://www.slguardian.org/?p=26861