Month: February 2015

PASSPORT DILEMMA FOR GEORGIANS AND ARMENIANS IN JAVAKHETI

Georgia Today, Georgia
Feb 12 2015

by Zaza Jgharkava

In the Samtskhe-Javakheti region of southern Georgia the passport issue
has become something of a hot topic. When ethnic Armenians with dual
citizenship received notification from the Ministry of Justice recently
which cancelled their Georgian citizenship, they found themselves being
forced to choose between keeping the citizenship of their historical
homeland or permanently taking on that of the country to which they
became citizens upon their application several years previously. For
the 2009-2013 (June 30) period, the number of such citizens is 2380.

The situation in Samtskhe-Javakheti increased in intensity last year
when the Georgian government tightened the visa policy about citizens
of foreign countries and restricted the permitted period of presence
in the country to 180 days. The government explained the stricter visa
policy as a consequence of the signing of the Associaiton Agreement
between the European Union and Georgia. However, before the signing of
the Agreement, the Law on the Citizenship of Georgia already stated
that a person should give up citizenship of Georgia when taking on
another foreign citizenship. Thus, the passport dilemma in Javakheti
has nothing to do with the EU Association Agreement and in fact began
much further back.

On February 26, 2007, the Parliament of the Armenian Republic adopted
a legislative pack on dual citizenship. Many ethnic Armenian citizens
of Georgia used the law to take Armenian passports, allowing them to
easily cross the Russian border where they found work illegally.

Sarkis Merabyan, residing in Diliski village of Akhalkalaki
district, already has Armenian citizenship. To achieve that,
he filed an application in Yerevan, provided copies of birth and
wedding certificates certified in Georgia, then gave evidence of
his history, his work contract and eight photos to the Foreign
Ministry. Following that, he paid the official fee in a bank and
received Armenian citizenship two months later. “I was interested in
receiving Armenian citizenship since it makes it easier to get into
Russia. My friends left this way and easily entered Russia [There
is no-visa regime between Yerevan and Moscow]: they simply bought a
ticket at the airport, got their visa in their passport and that was
it. This is why I want dual citizenship,” Merabyan told Guria Moambe.

The law adopted in Yerevan did not only have ethnic grounds,
something which became clear after the law was adopted following
the 2008 August War. Alex Nebadze from Akhaltsikhe expressed his
wish to receive Armenian citizenship. He applied to the Ministry of
Justice in Yerevan but was rejected. “I lived in Russia illegally
for 14 years. I arrived in Georgia before the August events [2008]
and now I cannot return there. I received an invitation from my wife
twice but the situation between the two countries is very tense. I
tried to register in Armenia but I was rejected. They told me that
citizenship can only be granted to the Armenian citizens of Georgia,”
Nebadze told Guria Moambe.

After the occupation of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine, the Kremlin
made it easier for non-Georgians wanting to go to Russia to get there.

Through the Embassy of Switzerland in Georgia, a simplified process of
issuing Russian citizenship documents to ethnic Armenians living in
Samtskhe-Javakheti and other Russian-speaking populations of Georgia
began. Many experts openly state that handing Russian passports to
ethnic Armenians in Javakheti is a sign that after stabilizing the
situation in Ukraine, the Kremlin will try to ignite a large-scale
conflict between Georgia and Armenia. Political analyst Soso Tsintsadze
is certain that if not for the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin would start
military actions in Javakheti. “This is a classic example of justifying
occupation. This is what Hitler did when he granted passports to
Sudeten Germans before World War II, and then asked the Czechs to
give up the territory. Our case is similar. I find the presence of
thousands of Russian citizens on Georgian territory very dangerous,
as several doctrines of Russia directly envisage the deployment of
troops in order to protect their citizens. A small simple provocation
would be enough to be considered as harmful to an ethnic Armenian
citizen of Russia and as a justification for Russia to bring down
its army to protect its citizens,” Tsintsadze told news agency GHN.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that, for many
Armenians living in Javakheti, rejecting Russian citizenship means
rejecting the small income that they might make in Russia. Therefore,
the Georgian Dream government should look for the solution to this
dilemma from an economic perspective. Otherwise, it will face mass
protests in Javakheti, with unpredictable results.

From: Baghdasarian

ARMENIA FAILS TO BARGAIN FOR DISCOUNTS ON RUSSIAN GAS

Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Feb 12 2015

12 February 2015 – 2:59pm

Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan’ latest visit to Moscow was
unsuccessful – Armenia’s expectations from the visit were not met,
the local Haykakan Zhamanak Daily writes.

The Armenian delegation that visited Moscow to attend the meeting
of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council was expected to agree on a
lower gas tariff with Russia. The newspaper notes that Armenia sought
to achieve revision of the gas tariff in exchange for a partial shift
from dollars to rubles in settlements for gas.

“The Armenian government’s delegation also hoped to raise investments
or a big loan from Russia. However, the delegation failed to agreed
on either issue,” the newspaper writes.

ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT TO GRANT ABOUT 200 MILLION DRAMS FOR TOURISM DEVELOPMENT

Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Feb 12 2015

12 February 2015 – 5:02pm

The government of Armenia has decided today to spend about 188.4
million drams on development of tourism, organization of festivals
of wine, kebabs and honey, as stated by Minister for Economy Karen
Chshmarityan, ARKA reports.

The government will continue supporting the International Education
Center of Guides within the framework of WFTA.

About 1.2 million tourists visited Armenia in 2014, 1.084 million
in 2013.

($1 = 479.47 drams)

RUSSIA WANTS CAUCASUS TO SOLVE ITS PROBLEMS ECONOMICALLY

Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Feb 12 2015

12 February 2015 – 9:22pm

Alexander Dzasokhov, vice president of the Russian Council for
International Affairs, told Vestnik Kavkaza that he had attended the
Integration Club of the speaker of the Federation Council yesterday
and proposed searches for a format of meetings of the North Caucasus
authorities and politicians to consider common problems of regional
security and settlement of conflicts within the framework of the BSEC
and the EaEU. He reminded that Armenia was the only one of the three
South Caucasus states to show interest in joining the EaEU. Dzasokhov
noted that the Greater Caucasus had high potential for conflicts,
especially in modern geopolitical circumstances.

Sergey Glazyev, Russian presidential advisor, sees good prospects for
the Eurasian economic integration of Caucasus states. The participation
of all republics of the Caucasus would solve all regional conflicts,
he believes. The official assumes that it would help solve the conflict
between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Azerbaijani expert Oktay Akhverdiyev said that economic ties with
Russia differed from ties with the EU. Most Azerbaijani exports to
Russia are agricultural products. Azerbaijan buys lumber, chemical
products, fertilizers and weapons from Russia. Akhverdiyev noted that
Russian Vice Prime Minister Aarkady Dvorkovich had recently visited
Baku and discussed an increase of imports of fruits, vegetables and
meat to Russia. The expert reminded that economic cooperation was often
a solution to political problems. He regrets that the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict had not been solved by the OSCE Minsk Group for over 20 years.

Georgian expert Irakli Lekvinadze said that Georgian exports to
Russia were falling because of the weakening ruble. About 10% of
Georgian trade turnover is accumulated with Russia, which is only 6%
of Georgian imports.

IRAN HELPS AZERBAIJAN TO SETTLE THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Feb 12 2015

12 February 2015 – 3:54pm

Cooperation between Iran and Azerbaijan will contribute to a peaceful
settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
Iran’s Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador to Azerbaijan
Mohsen Pak Ayeen said.

Emphasizing Iran’s commitment to a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict through peaceful means, Pak Ayeen said that the strengthening
of the relations between the two countries will contribute to peace,
stability and development in the region, Trend reports.

The Iranian minister said that Azerbaijan’s Minister of Communications
and High Technologies Ali Abbasov will pay a visit to Tehran on
February, 23-24 to take part in the meeting of the Non-Aligned
Movement.

The diplomat noted that during this visit the Azerbaijani minister
will hold a number of meetings with Iranian officials, emphasizing
that this visit will allow the relations between Iran and Azerbaijan
to be strengthened even more.

From: Baghdasarian

TRAPPED IN BAKU

Foreign Policy
Feb 11 2015

A press freedom advocate — and husband of an American servicewoman —
went to the U.S. embassy in Azerbaijan, fearing for his life. But he
was turned away.

by Michael Weiss

An Azerbaijani dissident married to a U.S. servicewoman has spent the
last half-year living in the Swiss embassy in Baku, denied protection
by the American embassy there. The 35-year-old human rights defender
Emin Huseynov has long been persecuted by the authoritarian government
of Ilham Aliyev and since August 2014 has been hosted by the Swiss
embassy for humanitarian reasons after he went into hiding last summer,
fearing his arrest was imminent.

The Swiss television show “Rundschau” broke the news today, and the
Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed Huseynov’s residence in
its embassy. The story of how he got there six-and-a-half months
ago resembles an international thriller redolent of Argo, though
conspicuously absent of U.S. involvement. It was relayed exclusively
to Foreign Policy by sources close to Huseynov in advance of today’s
announcement.

As chairman of the Institute for Reporters’ Freedom and Safety (IRFS),
a local NGO, Huseynov is one of many victims of an intense government
crackdown on free speech and civil society that has taken place
in Azerbaijan over the past year — a crackdown that has surprised
even hardened human rights monitors. In May 2014, Anar Mammadli, the
chairman of the highly regarded Election Monitoring and Democracy
Studies Center (EMDS), was sentenced to five-and-a-half years in
prison for spurious charges which included tax evasion and illegal
entrepreneurship; his real crime, according to human rights monitors,
was reporting on the Aliyev government’s election-rigging. Meanwhile,
the executive director of EMDS, Bashir Suleymanli, got three-and-a-half
years in jail. Then in July, Leyla Yunus, a noted democracy and peace
activist working on the reconciliation of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis,
was arrested on a suite of similarly concocted charges that include
high treason and spying on behalf of Armenia; her husband, Arif Yunis,
was also taken into custody on treason and fraud allegations. Finally
in August, two Azerbaijani legal activists — Rasul Jafarov and
Intigam Aliyev — were rounded up.

That same month, fearing for his life, Huseynov went into hiding.

According to sources, his bank accounts were first frozen in June,
and yet Huseynov was still able to leave the country, which he did
to attend a session at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council
of Europe (PACE) in Strasbourg where he and Jafarov put on an event
exposing Aliyev’s suffocation of civil society in Azerbaijan. After
Jafarov was detained, Huseynov sensed the net closing on him. In
early August, Huseynov attended an event at the U.S. embassy in Baku
where he eventually found himself alone with the Charge d’Affaires
Dereck Hogan. The American ambassador, Richard Morningstar, had
left Azerbaijan only a week earlier, leaving the embassy without a
diplomatic head. According to sources, Huseynov scribbled a note on a
piece of paper which he passed to Hogan: “What kind of assistance can
you provide me? I am in danger of arrest.” Hogan said he couldn’t help.

“[Huseynov] never had a bad relationship with Dereck,” said one source
who requested anonymity. “He never criticized the embassy and tried
to be diplomatic even when he criticized U.S. policy in Azerbaijan.”

Foreign Policy tried to contact Hogan at the embassy and was referred
instead to the State Department in Washington. No one responded to
inquiries by press time.

On August 6, Huseynov tried to leave the country to receive medical
treatment in Turkey, but was stopped by border control and turned
back. The day after that, August 8, colleagues from his office called
to inform him that the headquarters of IRFS was being surveilled by
state security, and warned Huseynov not to come to work. The office
was then raided, prompting rumors in the Azerbaijani press that
Huseynov had been arrested. He hadn’t. Instead, he went into hiding,
which only amplified speculation as to his whereabouts. Press reports
said he had fled to the U.S. embassy, which on August 12 put out
a statement denying that it was harboring him — a two-line denial
that many familiar with the case said read uncomfortably like a total
repudiation of an embattled dissident. But Washington wasn’t totally
unsympathetic to his predicament: the U.S. mission to the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe issued a blanket statement
on August 14 calling on Baku to “halt the continuing arrests of
peaceful activists, to stop freezing organizations’ and individuals’
bank accounts, and to release those who have been incarcerated
in connection with the exercise of their fundamental freedoms,”
mentioning the Yunuses, Jafarov, and Huseynov by name.

But the fact that Huseynov, while not a U.S. citizen himself, has
an American wife ought to have made his case more of a priority to
the State Department, according to human rights monitors and one
ex-diplomat.

A few European countries allegedly offered to take Huseynov in; he
opted for Switzerland, owing to its embassy’s proximity to his hideout.

“He totally changed his physical appearance, he dyed his hair, wore
a disguise,” one source relayed.

“He totally changed his physical appearance, he dyed his hair, wore
a disguise,” one source relayed. “Emin even did test runs: he’d go
out in disguise to see if people recognized him.”

On August 18, he made a play for the embassy grounds. A car driven
by an Azeri confidante, who evidently had to flee the country after
his identity was uncovered, dropped him off a few blocks away. The
authorities were aware that Huseynov was attempting refuge in a
foreign country and had begun staking out embassy entrances in Baku.

“Emin was walking to the embassy and realized there’s tons of
plainclothes cops,” said a source familiar with Huseynov’s story.

“They tried to talk to him. He spoke to them in broken English to
try and throw them off. They asked to see his passport. ‘No, no,’
he said, ‘the Swiss have my passport.’ They didn’t recognize him at
first. He rang the doorbell to the embassy, as the cops were still
interrogating him. Someone opened the door and pulled him inside. A
five-second hesitation and Emin swears he’d have been nabbed.”

Huseynov would spend the next several months living on Swiss soil in
his native country, flanked by a 24-hour police cordon of the embassy.

The Aliyev government has not publicly acknowledged his presence in
the Swiss embassy and, until today, the Swiss hadn’t either, although
they’ve been negotiating with the Aliyev government for Huseynov’s
safe passage out of Azerbaijan.

His case was known to a number of human rights monitors that Foreign
Policy contacted for comment, such as Giorgi Gogia, the South Caucasus
specialist at Human Rights Watch. “I know that the Swiss government
has been negotiating at the highest level possible with Azerbaijan,”
Gogia said. “And I know the Azerbaijan government has been against
letting Emin leave. It’s crazy that this is ongoing.”

Huseynov’s safe conduct out of the country is particularly critical
because the last time he was arrested — for attending a party
celebrating the birthday of Che Guevara — he was beaten by police so
badly he wound up in intensive care and had to be treated for head and
brain trauma. That was in 2008. Huseynov’s younger brother, Mehman,
a video blogger and photojournalist who also works for IRFS, was also
targeted by the police in 2012 for drawing attention to human rights
violations during the Eurovision Song Contest held in Baku that year.

In October 2014, Mehman was again arrested and brought to the
Investigation Department of the Prosecutor General for Serious Crimes.

He, too, has also been barred from leaving Azerbaijan.

According to Gogia, while Azerbaijan’s record on human rights has
always been dismal, conditions have grown infinitely worse recently.

“Three major things have happened that have never happened before.

First, the government arrested the towering figures of the NGO
movements. Second, since last January, it hasn’t registered a single
foreign grant. In the past, you had to register a grant at the
Ministry of Justice, but it was a pro forma procedure and no one was
refused. Third, the government went after and froze the bank accounts
of over 50 NGOs and their leaders, including [Huseynov]. Very suddenly,
from a very bad human rights record, it turned into a closed-country
human rights record. It was really hard and shocking to see how fast
the country was closing down. And the perverse irony is that all this
is taking place as Azerbaijan chairs the Council of Ministers at PACE.”

One former American diplomat questions the U.S. embassy’s hands-off
approach. “If the embassy knew that person was married to an American
citizen, that would require more than if this were just a normal
Azerbaijani citizen facing harassment or arrest by the police,”
said Richard Kauzlarich, who served as ambassador to Azerbaijan in
1994-1997. “There’s not much you can do for your average everyday
citizen of the country you’re embassy is in, but if it’s the spouse
of one our own, that changes things.”

Curiously, while Huseynov was running for his life, another urgent
human rights episode occurred, again ensnaring the U.S. embassy in
Baku — this one seemingly less complicated, however, as it concerned
someone with dual Azerbaijani-American citizenship.

Said Nuri, who became a U.S. citizen in 2012 after six years of
political asylum, was used to traveling back to Azerbaijan without
incident, albeit with a tail of police surveillance. “The government
followed me everywhere, took my pictures. Sitting in cafe or restaurant
— they put a camera on the next table taping us. Even my friends
published articles about that,” Nuri said. But then, last August, he
applied for a visa to visit his father, whom he had just discovered
had been diagnosed with terminal cancer. “I was in Ukraine at the
time, so I went to the Azerbaijani embassy in Kiev. It took three
weeks to get the visa. I went to Baku. I stayed seven days with my
family. Then, when I was trying to fly back to Kiev, the authorities
told me I couldn’t leave. ‘There’s a travel ban on you,’ the minister
of national security and general prosecutor office’s said.”

So Nuri went to the U.S. embassy. “They were confused. It took them
two hours to get back to me to confirm the travel ban. But they
didn’t give me much information. ‘It’s a domestic issue,’ I was
told. The next day, the general prosecutor released statement that
I need to be questioned regarding some criminal charges. I hired a
lawyer, went to the prosecutor’s office and was interrogated for six
hours. They asked me about affiliation with the U.S. government, if
I was CIA. They asked about my relationship to NGOs, journalists. How
did I get asylum and then citizenship? Why did I travel to Ukraine so
often? Why did I have pictures from the Maidan [the central square in
Kiev then roiled in revolution]? They were accusing me of espionage
and all these questions related to U.S. government and U.S.-funded
programs, the National Endowment for Democracy, and so on.”

Nuri’s lawyer informed him that the authorities planned to charge
him with spying on behalf of the United States. But the U.S. embassy,
Nuri insists, was useless.

Nuri’s lawyer informed him that the authorities planned to charge him
with spying on behalf of the United States. But the U.S. embassy,
Nuri insists, was useless. He obtained letters from then-Freedom
House President David Kramer and Sen. John McCain arguing his brief,
but the diplomatic response from an embassy official Nuri declined
to name was, roughly: “We understand you’re our citizen, but the
problem is you’re on foreign soil and this country is claiming you’re
also their citizen. It’s a sovereign country, so we can’t intervene
in their domestic policies.” The Aliyev government, meanwhile, was
trying to co-opt him, promising him a better life if he remained in
Azerbaijan and publicly repudiated his American citizenship. Where
gentle persuasion failed, the government resorted to other means:
“They taped me having sex with my girlfriend and tried to blackmail
me,” says Nuri. The whole ordeal then ended almost as spontaneously as
it had begun. After eight days of intense grilling and intimidation,
Nuri was deported and his Azerbaijani citizenship revoked. He now
lives in Chicago.

“Azerbaijan has shown they’re prepared to do unpleasant things to
American citizens and people associated with American organizations,
such as RFE/RL,” Ambassador Kauzlarich said, referring to the December
2014 imprisonment of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty contributor
Khadija Ismayilova, a pioneering anti-corruption journalist who
previously had her home bugged and, like Nuri, was surreptitiously
recorded having sex, the tape of which was leaked on the Internet.

According to Kauzlarich, the government has now all but declared Cold
War on the United States. “In my time, having an association with an
American didn’t buy you protection but there was a willingness not to
do certain things that would cause problems in the relationship. Now
I just don’t think they care.”

For dissidents, the worry is that the Obama administration doesn’t
seem particularly bothered by what’s happening in the oil-rich
authoritarianism on the Caspian, which, as I previously reported,
has spent the last half-decade expending enormous energy and money
lobbying the United States and Europe for political influence.

“I went to an event the other day here in Washington where State
Department officials announced that they’re going to pursue engagement
policy with the Aliyev government,” Alakbar Raufoglu, an opposition
journalist at the D.C.-based TURAN News Agency, told FP. “They didn’t
mention they’re going to highlight a crackdown on democratic activity.

They said they’ll support RFE/RL as much as they can but engagement
policy is number one right now.” For Raufoglu, the future of this
relationship can be seen in microcosm in a video released just
yesterday by the newly appointed U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan,
Robert Cekuta. “Look at what he said the U.S. priorities are: First is
regional security, second is economic growth, and third is democratic
development. Nothing has changed even as the regime has grown worse,”
said Raufoglu. “This is a chilling message that they’re leaving
us behind.”

As for Huseynov, now that his whereabouts are internationally known,
his fate remains uncertain. Living out of an embassy can be a long-time
affair. Just ask WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who obtained asylum
from Ecuador fearing extradition to Sweden to face questioning over
allegations of sexual assault.* He has not left the Ecuadorian embassy
in London for nearly three years. The Swiss mission in Baku is hardly
a sprawling palatial compound. “It’s a little tiny embassy,” a source
involved in his case said.

THE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE: A CENTURY OF DENIAL

LA Weekly, CA
Feb 12 2015

By Siran Babayan

As part of the commemoration of the centennial of the Armenian
Genocide, Richard Hovannisian, a UCLA professor, and David L.

Phillips, director of the Peace-building and Rights Program at Columbia
University, take an in-depth look at the Turkish government’s
century-long refusal to acknowledge the genocide committed by
the Ottoman Empire in 1915. Moderated by KPFK host Ian Masters,
the discussion will also cover “efforts to foster dialogue and
reconciliation” between the two countries.

From: A. Papazian

COUNTERING PUTIN’S GRAND STRATEGY

Wall Street Journal, NY
Feb 12 2015

With Europe weak and distracted, only the U.S. can thwart the Kremlin’s
growing ambitions.

By Robert D. Kaplan Feb. 11, 2015 7:20 p.m. ET

The heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine this week isn’t the only reason
to be skeptical about the prospects for the peace summit that began
Wednesday in Minsk, Belarus. Even if the meeting among Ukrainian
President Petro Poroshenko, Russian President Vladimir Puti n, German
Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande
produces a cease-fire agreement that holds up–unlike the one signed
last fall–the conflict’s underlying reality will remain unchanged:
The Russian-backed separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine is part of
Moscow’s larger grand strategy.

President Putin, who is consumed by historical humiliations, knows that
Russia was invaded not only by Napoleon and Hitler, but before that
also by the Swedes, Poles and Lithuanians. And so the Russian president
seeks a post-Warsaw Pact buffer zone in Central and Eastern Europe. The
Kremlin play book: imperialism by way of forcing energy dependence,
intelligence operations, criminal rackets, buying infrastructure and
media through third parties, the bribing of local politicians and
playing off the insecurities of ethnic minorities.

Mr. Putin may be an autocrat, but he finds weak democracies convenient
to his purpose. Their frail institutional and rule-of-law regimes make
his favored forms of subversion easier. Thus, Moldova, Bulgaria and
Serbia are particularly at risk while Romania, a member of the European
Union since 2007 and far more stable than Bulgaria, is less so.

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Mr. Putin has a North European Plain strategy in the Baltic states and
Poland, which emphasizes dependence on natural gas and the manipulation
of Russian minorities in the Baltic states. He also has a Black Sea
strategy, as seen in his annexation of Crimea last year, his desire
for a land bridge between Crimea and separatist eastern Ukraine,
his military pressure on Georgia, and his friendship with Turkey’s
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan–it all advances Russian influence in
the adjacent Balkans, thus inside Europe.

Western sanctions against Russia and the weakening of the Russian
currency (because of the fall in oil prices) may constrain Mr. Putin
a bit, but Russian history reveals a strong tendency for hardship
at home and adventurism abroad. Dialing up nationalism amid economic
turmoil is the default option for autocrats.

Matching Russia’s multifaceted imperialism requires a multifaceted
U.S. counterstrategy: the coordinated use of sufficient military aid,
intelligence operations, electronic surveillance, economic sanctions,
information and cyberwarfare, and legal steps. The Obama administration
is already pursuing in part such a strategy, but without the intensity
and commitment necessary for success. This isn’t about going to war,
but about making Russia respect limits.

The Obama administration should intensify economic sanctions that
further squeeze Russia’s ability to do business with U.S. banks; help
allies build liquefied natural-gas terminals to reduce dependence
on Russian energy; offer more tools to allies to help them defend
against Russian cyberattacks; and launch a full-bore effort to get
Ukraine to strengthen its military and other institutions–call it
nation-building lite.

Other measures might include inviting recently elected Romanian
President Klaus Iohannis and other deserving Central and Eastern
European leaders on state visits to Washington, an increased tempo of
bilateral military exercises with allies bordering Russia, and offering
our friends more intelligence against Russian criminal organizations.

Above all, U.S. policy makers should understand that NATO’s Article
5–specifying that an armed attack against one member state will be
considered an attack on all members–doesn’t protect members against
Russian subversion from within. Thus supporting Ukraine militarily
means first getting the Kiev government and its fighting forces to
modernize by, among other things, embedding experts from NATO and
other organizations inside Ukrainian ministries and army units. Only
then will the Ukrainian military be able to absorb the extra arms
its allies should want to give it. This is the narrative Washington
needs to create. Ukraine’s best defense against Russia is to become
more of a viable Westernized state itself.

But there is another problem: Europe. The EU bureaucracy doesn’t want
to absorb the troubles of Ukraine’s 45 million people with their
corrupt institutions, and neither do most NATO member states. The
European appetite for helping Ukraine has not measured up to Russia’s
appetite for destabilizing it. The problem cannot be decoupled from
Europe’s own inability, despite its recently launched version of
quantitative easing, to deal decisively with the EU’s flatlining
economy. The bitter European truth is that not enough individual
countries will sacrifice for each other. So why should they sacrifice
for Ukraine?

Thus the U.S., in addition to dealing with an assertive yet
economically crumbling Russia, must also cope with a spineless Europe.

To defeat Russia’s geopolitical ambitions, U.S. strategy should
concentrate on protecting and fortifying what the Polish general and
patriot of the interwar era, Jozef Pilsudsk i, called the Intermarium
(Latin for “between the seas,” between the Baltic and Black seas,
that is). Pilsudski envisioned a belt of independent states stretching
from Estonia south to Bulgaria that could withstand Russian aggression
from the east and German aggression from the west.

But because Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Germany is such a benign and
conflicted power, even as Mr. Putin seeks to expand influence into
the old Soviet Union, the Intermarium must now extend from the Baltics
to the Caucasus, where the Russian strongman, in addition to putting
military pressure on Georgia, has made Armenia a virtual satellite
hosting thousands of Russian troops.

This means oil-rich Azerbaijan, its sorry human-rights record
notwithstanding, is a pivot state, along with Poland in northeastern
Europe and Romania in southeastern Europe. The recent flare-up in
fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh provides Russia even greater opportunities for
exerting influence, given that Moscow has armed both sides.

Meanwhile, Mr. Putin’s vision of an ever-enlarging separatist Ukraine
corresponds with what he has already achieved in Russian-occupied
Transnistria, a sliver of land virtually annexed from Moldova in the
early 1990s, where he has fashioned a murky smugglers’ paradise; 2,500
Russian troops are stationed there. Transnistria could be the future
of Ukraine if Mr. Obama doesn’t act. With Europe weak and distracted,
and Mr. Putin stoking nationalism in the midst of an economic crisis at
home, only the U.S. can be the organizing principle for strengthening
the Intermarium.

Mr. Kaplan, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security,
is the author of, among other books, “The Revenge of Geography: What
the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate”
(Random House, 2012).

EXOTIC, NATURAL PRODUCTS PULL CROWDS AT SURAJKUND FAIR

Times of India
Feb 12 2015

TNN | Feb 12, 2015, 04.43 PM IST

SURAJKUND (Faridabad): Exotic spices and creations by craftspersons
from foreign countries are finding many takers at the 29th Surajkund
International Crafts Mela. Spices from mela’s partner nation Lebanon
to gem paintings from neighbouring Sri Lanka and hand-embroidered
wall hangings from Uzbekistan are attracting visitors.

Lebanese NGO Green Hand has brought an interesting range of salts
and gourmet products to the fair. Salim Tahbet, a member of Green
Hand, said, “We are a family of more than 218 volunteers from all
over Lebanon making efforts to save our habitat from bad harvesting
practices. We believe that real change has to come in an ascendant
way. Green Hand works around sustainable development through
mobilization and participation of local communities in every step.”

An attractive range of nine flavours of unrefined salt with no
additives are displayed in sleek glass bottles. “It is premium sea
salt flower mixed with harvested wild herbs. The salt named ‘Chimi
Churri’ is a mix of origanum, laurus and black & red pepper mixed
with flakes of sea salt flower and can be used in preparation of main
course dishes, salads and curds. Then, there are sea salt concoctions
with organic grapes, rose and an array of herbs,” he said.

Crest Mineral Creations from Sri Lanka is here with natural gem-studded
handmade pictures. Rathnadeepa, the artist behind these creations
including peacock, elephant, horses, map of India, sacred idols, said,
“I first draw an outline of what I intend to make and then mull how
to fill it up with different coloured stones. I use the residual part
of pure stones such as amethyst, ruby, sapphire, emerald and crush
them finely and glue it on the picture in an aesthetic manner.”

Uzbekistan’s Association of Craftsmen is showcasing handmade jewellery,
rugs and stoles. These colourful pieces have been intricately
hand embroidered using chain stitch, which is akin to Indian ‘aari’
work. There is a huge heavily embellished wall hanging in eye-catching
patterns that could make even the dullest corner of your house smile!

A young folk music ensemble from Armenia is not only entertaining
visitors at the mela by strumming tunes from their traditional
instruments, these instruments namely Duluk, Shvi, Zurna, Santoor,
Qamancha, Tavix and Qanon are on display and sale too. Anushik
Stepanyan, vocalist from the group, said, “Our santoor is a close
cousin of the Indian instrument with the same name. These instruments
are made of apricot wood. Also, we have brought along traditional
chiffon dresses painted with floral motifs and scarves in pastel
shades and artefacts made from silver and other alloys.”

AZERBAIJAN DECIDES TO ARREST ARMENIAN CAPTIVE

17:50, 12.02.2015

The Azerbaijani authorities, after contemplating for a long time,
have decided to detain Armenian citizen Arsen Baghdasaryan, who is
under Azerbaijan captivity since December of last year.

Baghdasaryan has been charged with sabotage, APA news agency of
Azerbaijan reported citing the Military Prosecutor’s Office of the
country.

The Azerbaijanis allege that Bagdasaryan is a military sergeant
who underwent special training, and that he was instructed to enter
Azerbaijan and place mines in the trenches.

The Military Prosecutor’s Office of Azerbaijan claims that the
“Armenian reconnaissance-sabotage group” had placed three of the
seven Fugas-type antipersonnel mines in the trenches.

Accordingly, Arsen Baghdasaryan has been charged with being a part
of a criminal group, premeditated attempted murder, and attempt to
commit an explosion.

As a result, Baghdasaryan has been sentenced to pretrial detention.

To note, the Baku representatives of the International Committee of
Red Cross have not yet been able to see this Armenian citizen.

Arsen Baghdasaryan, an ex-conscript of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
Defense Army, was taken into Azerbaijan captivity on December 26 of
the year past.

Armenia News – NEWS.am