ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN: ARMENIA CAN AFFORD STATEMENTS INEXCUSABLE FOR AZERBAIJAN
by Nana Martirosyan
arminfo
Friday, February 24, 19:56
Interview with Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus
Institute
Sociologists in Armenia have been frequently voicing the chances of
political forces recently. Does it testify to the high level of the
Armenian sociology considering that their forecasts usually come true?
Sociology in Armenia is at a good level. We have a good school that
prepares material for professionals. Sociologists become especially
active on the threshold of elections. But public opinion polls do not
present the general image of forthcoming elections. At present the
results of several surveys have been published. They presented the list
of the parties which will allegedly enter the new parliament. But I
don’t agree with it. I think that if the election were held not on 6
May but tomorrow, the following parties would find themselves in the
parliament: Republican Party of Armenia, Prosperous Armenia Party,
Armenian National Congress and ARF Dashnaktiutyun. But this does not
at all mean that other parties will be out of parliament. At the same
time, I doubt very much that Orinats Yerkir party will
manage to overcome the 5% threshold to the parliament.
Is it possible to establish a People’s Front in Armenia? Why don’t
our political forces adopt the similar experience of Russia?
No, it is not possible. We are in quite a different situation and
at quite a different stage of political development. The difference
between Armenia and Russia is that there is actually no political
opposition in Russia, and people like Levon Ter-Petrosyan are either
in prison or abroad or they are not alive at all. And those who call
themselves opposition do not attend rallies, as they are not true
oppositionists. Russia has to create what has been in Armenia for
20 years. So, Armenia needn’t create a People’s Front, like the one
recently created in Russia.
Opposition forces in Armenia have stated beforehand that the upcoming
elections are fraud. Nevertheless, they still intend to run for the
parliament. What is the reason of such paradox?
It also means that there are still political traditions in Armenia.
Since 1995 all the political forces of Armenia have been using radical
rhetoric over the election period. Armenia has a huge demand for system
rhetoric, not the political one. As a rule, after every election some
forces appear that do not acknowledge the results of the election.
The authorities say that the opposition’s proposal to switch to a 100%
proportional electoral system is part of its PR campaign…
An active political fight is going on, in which all the parties
simply must use PR methods, which will draw the attention of the
voters. Certainly, such kind of proposals is part of election campaign
and the oppositionists are not so naive to propose such changes on
the threshold of the election.
Has the Arab Spring of 2011 had any impact on the situation in Armenia?
The world policy does not directly affect domestic political situation
in Armenia, but the world financial crisis directly affects financial
flows and the western programs being implemented in Armenia.
This affects the social situation which naturally affects
the political situation in the country. But the global policy does not
affect the results of the parliamentary and presidential elections in
Armenia. The people which believe that Armenian political candidates
represent interests of any superpower, are naive, as in this context
there is no single Russia or America. We are linked with the world
and cannot stay in isolation. 2011 was the year of turbulence in the
Middle East and the Arab world, as the American-Iranian confrontation
was developing, which directly affects implementation of the projects
linked with Russian and Iranian capital. But this cannot directly
affect political field of Armenia either.
Confrontation around Iran is continued and there is an impression
that the situation is becoming increasingly tense…
Overland war in Iran is impossible. One should be mad to unleash
war against Iran. It will be irrational for the U.S. authorities on
the threshold of elections. There may be bombing or missile blows
that will not settle the Iranian problem, but what is happening in
reality is a tough bargaining with use of pressure and rhetoric of
threats. Military actions against Iran will plunge the entire world
into a crisis. In case the Persian Gulf is paralyzed through closing
the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy will prove in the situation
similar to those of 90s in Armenia. A real war against Iran would
stop oil currents from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain and
Oman. Speaking of such war is unnecessary at the given moment.
Baku is trying to gain from the situation around Iran, and the
Azerbaijani politicians have suddenly remembered about the so-called
Southern Azerbaijan…
Some Azerbaijani politicians were allowed to voice this theory,
which finds room in the game between the USA and Russia and the West
and Iran. In this way Baku is trying to demonstrate certain loyalty
towards the West. Azerbaijan has been simultaneously working for Russia
as well as for the West. It is a value for Russia in the energy and
communication context. It is not an important energy and communication
corridor for the West. For this reason, Azerbaijan is forced to express
loyalty to the West as well. But it has not succeeded much in this
way taking into consideration the fact that many countries of the
West treat Azerbaijan with disgust. Azerbaijan is like Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and Kazakhstan which have an absolutely different
political reality and their loyalty is displayed by the principle –
“I am against your enemy”. Stemming from it, Armenia has a great
opportunity to speak about its complementary policy and cooperation
with Iran, Russia as well as the West. And Azerbaijan has nothing
else to do but to demonstrate its pro-Western orientation. Hence,
there is no threat that northern and southern Azerbaijan will unite.
From: A. Papazian