WILL IRANIAN WAR SPILL OVER KARABAKH?
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 17:49:51 – 24/02/2012
Candidate for Russian president, LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovski
stated that in the summer, the World War III will start. “As soon as
they crush Syria, Iran will be stroke. Azerbaijan will take advantage
and will try to recapture Karabakh. Armenia will perform against this.
Turkey will support Azerbaijan. Here’s how our country can be drawn
into the war in the summer of 2012”, he said.
Besides, there are already opinions of experts, mainly from Armenia
and Russia saying that the U.S. “agreed” with Azerbaijan to “give”
it Karabakh in exchange of support to operations in Iraq.
Despite of a really big possibility of a blow in the region, it is
evident that the situation is under control and there are at least
two factors which evidence that war in Karabakh is not inevitable.
The first factor is that so far no conflict or war, with the
participation of the U.S. or controlled by it, spilled over the
neighbor countries. The feeling is that special mechanisms were used
to localize the military actions in the separate country – let it be
Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and any other one. They said that the
war in Libya (or Iraq) would become a detonator of the World War III,
that the whole Middle East will be involved, but the war started and
ended in one country.
The point is surely not about the fact that the U.S. is right or wrong
in invading in different countries, but about the mechanism which
keeps neighbor countries far from the military-political adventures
in the period of hostilities. The current events in Syria are also
a proof: despite all the predictions, the conflict has not spilled
over neighbor countries.
The only exception has so far been the Russian-Georgian war, when
the war happened on the territories of two countries, but this is a
different story with different goals.
In this connection it seems that even if a conflict between Iran
and the West or Israel starts, it will hardly spill over neighbor
countries of the region. Though, experts hope it will be possible to
avoid the conflict.
The second factor is the U.S. position on Karabakh. If the belonging
of certain territories to the Armenian side and the presence of the
Karabakh military-political unit is a bargaining chip of the U.S. just
with Azerbaijan, so what is meaning of this auction for the last 20
years? Why should the U.S. which has done much to preserve the status
quo in Nagorno-Karabakh should change its attitude towards Azerbaijan,
for which it has a lot of other levers of influence?
Nevertheless, the play of muscles continues in the region. The CSTO
Secretary General Nikolay Bordyuzha said that in case of escalation of
conflict in Karabakh, Armenia will receive all the necessary support.
The third field army of Turkey, the headquarters of which is situated
in Erzrum, is holding massive maneuvers near the Armenian border in
the Kars province. The president and the prime minister of Turkey
are following the exercises.
The Azerbaijani military forces also started large-scale maneuvers
along the Nagorno Karabakh border on February 22. In Yerevan, on
February 21-23, were held Armenian-Georgian joint command-staff
exercises on the “detection and prevention of the spread of weapons
of mass destruction”.
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics25253.html