VOTE 2012: ANALYSTS EXPECT CENTRIST OPPOSITION TO EMERGE IN ARMENIA AFTER OSKANIAN COMEBACK
By Naira Hayrumyan

ArmeniaNow
15.02.12 | 13:06

Photo:

Former foreign minister Vartan Oskanian’s joining Armenia’s second
most important governing party may be an indication that a centrist
opposition is emerging in the country.

The Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) recently issued a statement jointly
with its two coalition partners – the ruling Republican Party of
Armenia (RPA) and Orinats Yerkir – that the coalition will not be
contesting the May parliamentary elections with a single list. The
three political parties only announced their agreement around
“civilized competition”.

Enlarge Photo

Analysts are divided in their assessments of this latest coalition
agreement: some say that the governing parties simply decided to
divide their functions and get as many protest votes as they could.

Others argue that current President Serzh Sargsyan and former President
Robert Kocharyan, who is believed to patronize the PAP, were unable
to agree, and Kocharyan intends to return to active politics in a
stance of an opponent.

However, one can hardly expect the PAP’s assuming a radical
opposition stance, rather it is likely to occupy the vacant niche of
a centrist opposition party, without forming an alliance with the
radical opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC). First, there
is the factor of irreconcilable hostility between Kocharyan and his
predecessor Levon Ter-Petrosyan (who now leads the ANC). Secondly,
the PAP will avoid direct confrontation with the current president,
preferring to “prove” that the situation in the country during
Kocharyan’s presidency was better.

The fact that the PAP does not intend to become an active opposition
was also testified during last Sunday’s competitive election in
the town of Hrazdan where RPA and ANC representatives were battling
it out for the mayoral post. The PAP displayed a neutral position,
refusing to support the opposition candidate who was supported by
the parliamentary opposition parties, Dashnaktsutyun and Heritage.

PAP lawmaker Naira Zohrabyan only said the party would “hail if all
candidates participating in the mayoral election in Hrazdan aspired
to hold free and fair elections and respected the voter’s will.”

Some also expect the PAP to form an electoral bloc with Dashnaktsutyun,
which is also loyal to the second president. Chances of both parties
in such a bloc will grow, especially after Oskanian joins the PAP
to provide it with more substantial ideology. The thing is that the
PAP has routinely been accused of lacking ideology and a program and
that its leader, tycoon Gagik Tsarukyan, earns political dividends
exclusively through charity. But with the financial resource underlying
Oskanian’s moderately critical ideology, the PAP may just as well
emerge as a reliable centrist force.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress