‘NO PROSPECTS’ FOR IMMINENT KARABAKH RESOLUTION

News.Az
July 6, 2011
Azerbaijan

Wed 06 July 2011 05:55 GMT | 1:55 Local Time

News.Az interviews Henry E. Hale, director of The George Washington
University’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies
(IERES).

What do you thing about Azerbaijan, its policy and place in the region?

Azerbaijan is certainly an important player in the Eurasian region with
great potential to influence developments in the Caucasus and beyond.

How can you explain the fact that there is so much talk in the West
about the importance of Azerbaijan and its energy resources but no
one want to get involved in the Karabakh settlement?

There are a lot of people (and governments) in the West who are deeply
involved in trying to resolve the Karabakh conflict, including through
the most recent round of negotiations.

Their hope has been to find a settlement that can somehow satisfy all
people involved in the conflict itself, and that has proven impossible
so far.

The presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia did not sign any agreement
on Karabakh at the Kazan meeting on 24 June, despite the hopes of
the US, Russia and France. Do you believe that the conflict will be
settled soon?

Unfortunately, I do not see prospects for the conflict being settled
soon.

None of the sides appear prepared for meaningful compromise on the
core issue of Karabakh’s status. I hope I am wrong.

What do you think about the possibility of a new war in the region?

What would be the reaction of the super-powers?

I do fear that a new war is possible, and think that the outcome would
likely be a tragedy for all concerned. Perhaps the biggest question
is whether Russia would intervene on the side of Armenia, assuming
Armenian troops are involved. I would expect that there would be
serious internal debates within Russia about whether to become directly
involved, and I am not sure what the outcome of those debates would be.

I would expect the American government not to want to become directly
involved in yet another war, though history has taught us never to
rule anything out entirely, since events can take unexpected and
unwanted directions.

Henry E. Hale is director of IERES (the Institute for European,
Russian, and Eurasian Studies) at The George Washington University’s
Elliott School of International Affairs.

F.H.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress