PRESIDENT SARGSYAN KEPT THE DOOR OPEN: THOMAS DE WAAL

Panorama.am
04/05/2010

Announcing factual suspension of the process on normalizing relations
with Turkey, Armenian President chose the less bad, Thomas de Waal,
Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program at Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace, said in an interview to Mediamax Agency.

"Given that the Turkish side was not going to ratify the protocols
and President Sargsyan was under pressure to do something, he faced
a choice between two bad options. He chose the less bad of the two
and kept the door open for normalization in the future," Thomas de
Waal said.

At the same time, the expert said he felt suspicious over the
efficient come-out of the process. "But I fear that even after the
Turkish elections next year nothing essential will have changed and
the Turkish demand that there be progress on the Karabakh issue will
keep the process stalled. The only positive thing is that there are
now multiple contacts between the two societies and even business
links. These will not disappear and are leading to greater confidence
and understanding between Armenians and Turks."

Commenting on remarks of the representatives of the Turkish leadership
openly and persistently stating over the past few months that
normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is impossible without
progress in Karabakh conflict settlement, the expert said:

"I think there was a series of misunderstandings and mixed messages
here. President Gul pressed ahead with the normalization process with
Armenia and made no mention of the Karabakh conflict even as Prime
Minister Erdogan was insisting that Karabakh must be linked to the
process. I see several factors: a difference in priorities between
Gul and Erdogan; a rather naïve belief in Turkey that Armenia could
be persuaded to make concessions on the Karabakh issue in return for
ratification of the protocols; an under-estimation of how strong the
reaction would be in Azerbaijan; the US administration promoting the
process and "hoping for the best" and choosing not to factor in the
Karabakh issue."

Thomas de Waal also referred to the remarks over freezing of
Armenian-Turkish relations being more painless for Moscow rather than
for Washington.

"Moscow definitely supported the Armenia-Turkey rapprochement for
various reasons. It has an improving relationship with Turkey and
most (but not all) policy makers saw the potential opening of the
Armenia-Turkey border as a way of working with two partners in the
region and further isolating Georgia. But Moscow also has an improving
relationship with Azerbaijan and so it did not promote the process
as strongly as the Americans did, content to see it succeed but not
overly disappointed if it failed also," he highlighted.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress