Month: November 2009

ARMENIA SELF-SUFFICIENT IN ENERGY SECTOR, SAYS PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER ADVISOR

Tert
Nov 24 2009
Armenia

Advisor to the National Assembly Speaker Tatul Manaseryan thinks that
Armenia, not to mention the entire region and many countries in the
world, is in a difficult situation.

During today’s press conference, Manaseryan stated that it is necessary
to overcome the crisis through joint efforts and in a coordinated
way. In this context, he is also considering Armenia. "It is enough
to look at the goals we set 1-2 years ago and those we set today,
let’s say, in the state budget, and we can see that we are not able
to be consistent in those plans."

Speaking about the role that Armenia will assume in the region,
Manaseryan stated that "it may have serious economic consequences."

The advisor to the National Assembly Speaker recalled the agreement
between Armenia and Turkey in the energy sector and the 4.5 billion
killowat-hour export. According to Manaseryan, this is only part
of Armenia’s possibilities, and "Turkey is only one of our export
markets."

"There are few countries which are self-sufficient and don’t experience
an energy crisis irrespective of the world crisis."

Armenia, according to Manaseryan, is among these very countries.

ARMENIAN GDP, EXPORTS CONTINUE RAPID CONTRACTION DURING OCTOBER
Venla Sipila

World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
Nov 23 2009

According to the latest national accounts figures from the Armenian
National Statistical Service, the country’s economy collapsed by
17.5% year-on-year (y/y) in January-October, ARKA News reports. In
October alone, GDP contracted by 5.1% from September. Coming after
the January-September contraction of 18.3% y/y, these most recent
figures suggest some moderation in the rate of annual output decrease
in October.

However, this does not provide much reason for cheer, especially
compared with the very respectable economic growth rate of 9.2%
y/y seen in the first 10 months of last year. Industrial output in
January-October fell by 11.4% y/y, whereas activity in the construction
sector plummeted by 41.6% y/y. Meanwhile, agricultural production fell
by 0.8% y/y. Further, it was reported that exports from Armenia in the
first 10 moths of the year suffered a fall of 40.7% y/y, amounting
to $551US.6 million, while imports at the same time contracted by
28.5% y/y, totalling $2US.57 billion. Thus, the trade deficit for
the January-October period came in at $2US.018 billion. The figures
suggest some deceleration in the annual exports contraction in October,
whereas the fall in imports slightly accelerated. In October alone,
exports decreased by 1.4% from September, while imports increased by
6.1% from the previous month.

Significance:Whereas the severe collapse of the Armenian economy now
should start to ease, as cautiously suggested by the latest data, the
still worse-than-expected performance in the third quarter justified
yet another downward revision in IHS Global Insight’s Armenian GDP
forecast in the November round. We expect 2009 annual contraction to
somewhat exceed the lower end of the government’s forecast of a 10-15%
fall. The extreme severity of the current Armenian economic conditions,
including its major liquidity pressures, has been underlined by the
fact that it has had to seek revisions to its stand-by arrangement with
the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has approved changes to
programme terms and payment schedules (seeArmenia: 3 November 2009:).

ARMENIAN REVOLUTIONARY FEDERATION PROMISES CHANGE IN GOVERNING LEADERSHIP IF PROTOCOLS RATIFIED

Tert
Nov 24 2009
Armenia

"If the National Assembly ratifies the Armenian-Turkish Protocols as
they are now, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation [Dashnaktsutyun, or
ARF-D] will fight for a change in the country’s governing leadership,"
member of ARF-D Bureau, Leader of ARF-D parliamentary faction Vahan
Hovhannisyan stated at a press conference today.

Hovhannisyan also said that even if the National Assembly ratifies
the Armenian-Turkish Protocols with reservations, it’s all the same,
their party will not join them since it doesn’t think that those
reservations will be in line with the changes ARF-D proposed earlier.

However, Hovhannisyan didn’t exclude the possibility of discussing
proposals for serious changes.

As for ARF-D’s protest demonstration against the Protocols,
Hovhannisyan stated that "holding a rally" is not an end in and of
itself and, at this time, they chose the method of their struggle
which is most suitable for the present situation.

Accordingly, ARF-D is carrying out its "home to home" action, working
with members of parliament in joint communities, and realizing its
protest against the Protocols.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT ON MEDVEDEV-ALIYEV MEETING AGENDA

Tert
Nov 24 2009
Armenia

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev will hold talks today in the Russian city of Ulyanovsk,
during which time they will discuss the two countries’ cooperation
in the energy sector and issues related to the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, informs Russian news agency ITAR-TASS.

Analysts expect that today’s meeting will be the continuation of the
saturated political dialogue between Russia and Azerbaijan.

According to Kremlin sources, it is expected that, during this meeting,
Medvedev and Aliyev will continue to exchange viewpoints on pressing
international and regional issues.

"Those include settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, during
which Russia fulfills a mediator’s role as an OSCE Minsk Group
co-chair," the source clarified.

TALKS CONCLUDE AS AZERBAIJAN THREATENS ARMENIA WITH MILITARY ACTION
Lilit Gevorgyan

World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
Nov 23 2009

Armenian President Serzh Sargsian and his Azerbaijani counterpart,
Ilham Aliyev, met on 22 November 2009 in Germany for Organisation for
Security Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)-mediated talks over the status
of the breakaway Azeri region of Nagorno Karabakh. One day earlier,
Aliyev stated that if this round of talks fails to bring concrete
results, Azerbaijan would resort to military action to reclaim its
breakaway region. The talks, chaired by OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs from
Russia, France and the United States, lasted four hours and ended with
no comments from either president. However, the OSCE French co-chair,
Bernard Fassier, noted that the parties were actively engaged during
the talks. Neither the OSCE nor the Armenian side commented on Aliyev’s
threats of military action.

Significance:It is not the first time that Aliyev has issued threats of
a military resolution in Nagornon Karabakh, an Armenian enclave within
Azerbaijan that declared independence over 15 years ago to become
a de facto part of Armenia. However, unlike his previous statements
mainly aimed at bolstering his militaristic image domestically and
with little chance of happening, Aliyev’s recent threats of war may be
more dangerous. The statement comes in the wake of a shifting balance
of power in the South Caucasus, most notably the Armenian-Turkish
protocols on establishing diplomatic relations and opening the common
border closed by Turkey in solidarity with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict (seeArmenia-Turkey: 12 October 2009:). There are
a number of motivations behind Aliyev’s war threats. First, it is an
attempt to stall the OSCE Minsk process, which has made little progress
since the early 1990s, but at least achieved a detailed peace roadmap
that envisages concessions from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. By issuing
an ultimatum to the OSCE, Aliyev hopes to rearrange the peace talks
format by bringing in Turkey, Azerbaijan’s closest ally and ethnic
kin, and thus increase the pressure on the Armenian side in the hope
of a resolution with no concessions. Secondly, Aliyev is unhappy with
the recent diplomatic thaw in relations between Armenian and Turkey;
as a result he may try to sabotage the Armenia-Turkey process. By
resuming the military conflict in Nagorno Karabakh, Aliyev may try
to block the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border by bolstering
anti-Armenian sentiment among Turkish secularists and the military
(seeAzerbaijan: Turkey: 5 November 2009:). While an all-out war is
unlikely in the immediate term, at least during the winter months,
the frequency of border incidents and small-scale military clashes
between Armenian and Azeri soldiers is likely to intensify. Aliyev,
who has been pouring millions of dollars into strengthening the Azeri
army over the past decade, has to consider more carefully the economic
impact of a possible war–Azerbaijan’s most profitable Baku-Ceyhan oil
export pipeline runs only 30 kilometres away from the conflict zone.

ARMENIA NO LONGER IN THE RUNNING FOR WORLD CHESS CUP

Tert
Nov 24 2009
Armenia

After the end of the one hundred and twenty-eight round of the 2009
World Chess Cup tournament held in the Russian town of Khanty-Mansiysk,
Armenia has no more representatives. After Tigran L. Petrosian,
Gabriel Sargissian, too, was defeated.

Twice-Olympic champion Sargissian was defeated by China’s Chao Li who
was significantly behind the Armenian chess player in ratings. The
two main games ended in a draw, and in the additional games Li gained
the advantage: 5-3.

Varuzhan Akobian, representing the US, gained the advantage over
Russia’s Pavel Tregubov (9-7) and made it to the round of sixty-four.

ITALY WELCOMED SIGNING OF PROTOCOLS, HOPES WILL BE RATIFIED SOON, SAYS FOREIGN MINISTER

Tert
Nov 24 2009
Armenia

RA Minister of Foreign Affairs Edward Nalbandian left for Italy on
November 23 for a brief business visit.

In Rome, Nalbandian met with his Italian counterpart Franco Frattini,
informs the RA Ministry of Foreign Affairs press and information
department.

Discussed during the talks were different dimensons of Armenia-European
Union cooperation, the steps to be taken to promote bilateral
cooperation within the frames of the European Neighbourhood Policy
and Eastern Partnership Program.

Frattini welcomed and expressed Italy’s support of the steps taken to
establish Armenia-Turkey relations. In this regard, he stated that
Italy enthusiastically welcomed the signing of the Armenian-Turkish
Protocols and expressed hope that they will be ratified soon, which
will provide the opportunity to open the Armenia-Turkey border.

The ministers placed importance on the signing of a Memorandum of
Mutual Understanding, emphasizing that its application will promote
activation of political dialogue.

Nalbandian and Frattini discussed the opportunity to simplify the
procedure of getting entry visas between Armenia and the European
Union, noting that it will promote contact between the Armenian public
and the European community.

The parties stated with satisfaction that there is an adequate
legal-contractual field for broadening trade-economic cooperation
and tendency to stimulate economic ties, as Italian investments in
Armenia substantially increased in 2009.

At the request of his Italian colleague, Nalbandian presented
the latest developments in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict and the results of Sunday’s meeting between the Armenian
and Azerbaijani presidents in Munich.

Gratefully accepting the Armenian foreign minister’s invitation,
the Italian foreign minister assured him that he will visit Armenia
in the first half of 2010.

Before the meeting, the ministers signed the Memorandum of Mutual
Understanding on High-Level Political Consultations between the foreign
ministries of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Italy and
the Agreement on Economic Cooperation between the governments of the
Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Italy.

TOPICAL. THE USA HAS SUSPENDED DEMOCRACY DIALOGUE WITH AZERBAIJAN

Yeni Musavat
Nov 17 2009
Azerbaijan

Tension between Washington and Baku has peaked. Everything has been
marred in the relations of the two countries and is taking a turn
for the worse

A new piece of information has been added to reports about the gradual
deterioration of political relations between the USA and Azerbaijan.

It became known that the annual talks on democracy and human rights
between the USA and Azerbaijan have been suspended. These talks have
been envisaged by the agreement on strategic partnership between the
United States and Azerbaijan and were one of the priority directions
in the mutual relations. According to reports, Tina S. Kaidanow,
Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian
Affairs, and Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights
and Labor Michael Posner arrived in Tbilisi yesterday.

Georgian mass media outlets report that the visit is being paid
for the conduct of the traditional democracy talks between the two
countries. The high-ranking US diplomats are to meet Georgian state
and government representatives to discuss joint efforts for the
strengthening of democracy in the country. The US embassy in Baku
has told Yeni Musavat newspaper that Posner and Kaidanow are not
expected to visit Baku after Tbilisi. The head of the public relations
department of the embassy, Terry Davidson, said that no delegation
is expected in Baku soon for the conduct of talks on democracy and
human rights.

US suspends democracy dialogue with Azerbaijan

We should say that there was an intensive dialogue over the issue
in question between Washington and Baku before. The latest official
American-Azerbaijani democracy dialogue was held in June last year. At
that time, the talks were led by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State
for European and Eurasian Affairs David Kramer. The US-Azerbaijan
security dialogue was kicked off in December 2006. The talks were
held both in Washington and in Baku and were around specific issues,
including elections, media and freedom of speech, the right to free
assembly and others. Similar talks are conducted between the USA,
Georgia and Armenia.

So far six similar talks have been held between the USA and
Azerbaijan. However, as obvious, such dialogue will not be conducted
between Washington and Baku this year. Under the mutual strategic
partnership agreement, along with democracy and human rights issues,
the sides also hold security and energy dialogues every year. The
annual security talks between the USA and Azerbaijan has been held
recently and was held in Washington by a delegation led by Deputy
Foreign Minister Araz Azimov. After the talks devoted to mainly to
then presidential election in June last year, Deputy State Secretary
David Kramer paid another visit to Baku in November. At that time, the
main topic of the talks was an unexpected decision of the government
to take foreign radio stations off the air immediately after the polls.

At that time, a representative of the outgoing Republican
administration warned Baku over the matter, saying that the issue of
the closure of exactly radio stations would be on the table of then
president-elect Barack Obama as soon as he took the office. Therefore,
if Baku did not want the deterioration of the relations with Washington
and incoming Democratic administration, it should restore the broadcast
of foreign radio stations on FM frequencies. However, the authorities
brushed away the recommendation and the relations began to take a turn
for the worse. True, this year in the spring, Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov was invited to Washington and the issues of democracy
and human rights in Azerbaijan were raised at talks he had there.

No US ambassador in Azerbaijan yet

However, the visit was connected with the Armenian-Turkish
rapprochement and the conflict of the Nagornyy Karabakh. The
deterioration of the relations has reached a level that the USA is not
appointing a new ambassador to Azerbaijan and it seems that at least
will not name one within several months to come. The discontent over
non-appointment of the ambassador was also raised by Deputy Foreign
Minister Araz Azimov while on a visit in Washington. He also confirmed
that the relations between the two countries were not good, that is
to say, Azerbaijan does not see the wished partnership relations from
the USA. For official Baku such a partnership with the USA envisage
non-interference in democracy and human rights issues, elections
and similar issues in Azerbaijan. However, such a partnership model
does not fit for the USA. The United States would like at least to
formally demonstrate that democracy and human rights issues are one
of the priorities in its relations with Baku.

However, Baku’s stable refusal from recommendations to this end has
led to a point that Washington is reviewing relations and suspends
democracy-related talks. At the same time, it stops activities of
political institutions engaged in this sphere. That is to say although
the relations with Azerbaijan have not been severed completely, they
are lagging behind significantly and cannot anymore be described as
strategic partnership. One of the fundamental achievements succeeded
by Azerbaijan in its foreign policy for many years was close relations
with the world’s superpower. Nevertheless, everything has been marred
and is going from bad to worse…

PROTOCOLS MUST BE RATIFIED WITHIN REASONABLE TIMEFRAME, SAYS PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER

Tert
Nov 24 2009
Armenia

Armenia’s National Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan met his Turkish
counterpart Mehmet Ali Å~^ahin in Moscow yesterday.

During the meeting, the parties shared with one another the specifics
of their respective countries’ parliamentary structure and activities,
states a release issued by the press and public relations department
of the Republic of Armenia National Assembly.

They exchanged viewpoints on the process of establishing bilateral
relations without preconditions.

Abrahamyan emphasized that the Armenian side considers it necessary
for the signed Armenia-Turkey Protocols to be ratified within a
reasonable timeframe.

The two parliamentary speakers highly praised Armenia’s and Turkey’s
presidents’ brave combined efforts and agreed that, thanks to those
efforts, fertile ground was created for establishing normal relations
between the two neighbouring countries. In that context, they agreed
that it is, first and foremost, necessary to encourage direct human
contact, as well as to attempt to establish ties between Armenia’s
National Assembly and Turkey’s Grand National Assembly.

YEREVAN AND BAKU TALK ABOUT POSITIONS AND PROGRESS

Tert
Nov 24 2009
Armenia

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev conducted deeper and more detailed discussions on unsolved
issues, Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Elkhan Polukhov
told Azeri Press Agency (APA) when commenting on the recent meeting
of the two heads of state in Munich.

According to him, the meeting lasted for more than 4 hours, which
clearly demonstrates the importance of the meeting.

The diplomat also emphasized that there was progress in the positions
of the parties in some issues. "Moreover, the presidents of both
countries assigned the foreign ministers with the task of continuing
the negotiations. The next meeting of the foreign ministers of the
two countries is planned to take place in Athens in early December,"
the Azerbaijani spokesperson stated.

Yesterday, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian spoke about
"certain progress in some issues."