Month: November 2009

EUROPE AND TURKEY WILL ONLY HAVE THEMSELVES TO BLAME IF EU LOSES ACCESS TO CASPIAN GAS
By Alexander Jackson

APA

Nov 24 2009
Azerbaijan

For all the talk of Turkey moving away from Europe, the real story
of a Western ally slowly turning East has been ignored. In recent
weeks Azerbaijan has undertaken a series of moves which could, in the
long term, lead to the loss of EU access to Caspian gas and a major
reorientation in the region’s geopolitics.

If this occurs then Europe and Turkey will only have themselves to
blame. Europe has repeatedly failed to make progress on the Nabucco
project, which would carry Caspian and Middle Eastern gas to the heart
of Europe and partially liberate it from reliance on Russian gas. This
hugely expensive and ambitious project required firm political and
financial commitments which Brussels has not delivered. Instead,
individual European governments have been successfully courted by
Russia’s Gazprom for its rival South Stream pipeline under the Black
Sea. Turkey’s obstructionism and failure to acknowledge the links
between energy and conflict-resolution in the region make it also
responsible.

The Nabucco problem has been one of demand – insufficient commitment
by the EU – but also one of supply. The only confirmed source of gas
is Azerbaijan. Other possible suppliers – Iran, Central Asia, Iraq,
and Egypt – have their own specific problems.

Now it looks as if even Azerbaijan is starting to slip away. In June,
Azerbaijan’s state energy company SOCAR signed a deal with Russia’s
Gazprom. The quantities involved (500 million cubic metres (mcm))
were insignificant, but this was a warning shot to Brussels and Ankara
to hurry up with Nabucco. In November Baku has upped the stakes by
making some serious overtures elsewhere.

Firstly, SOCAR signed a deal with Iran, promising over 500mcm a year
from 2010 (Press TV, November 12). Like the Gazprom deal, this is
another placeholder, since the amounts involved are negligible. The
significance is political: the agreement holds open the possibility
of increasing the contracted amount in years to come. Iran is also
a pariah in the West, and expanding energy ties with it is a clear
message from Baku. Secondly, Azerbaijan agreed to ship 7 to 8 billion
cubic meters (bcm) of its gas annually via tankers in a compressed form
to Bulgaria, bypassing Turkey (Eurasia Daily Monitor, November 16).

Shortly afterwards, Baku made its bluntest threat yet. "If Europe
takes too long putting together a solution, then all the gas in the
Caspian will go to Asia," said a SOCAR official. "It’s more serious
than it seems" (Bloomberg, November 19). China – which has been
hungrily expanding its energy presence in Central Asia recently –
is the obvious target market. Currently, the infrastructure to send
Azerbaijani gas to China does not exist. But SOCAR’s threat seems to
be genuine.

Ironically, the main obstacle to Azerbaijani gas heading east is also
the main obstacle to Nabucco. A Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) between
Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, long in the planning, is still far from
being built. Russian and Iranian objections are partly responsible;
so is a recent dispute between Ashgabat and Baku over the ownership
of disputed gas fields. Turkmenistan has even threatened to take
Azerbaijan before a court of international arbitration.

Alarmed at the prospect of losing Turkmen gas for the foreseeable
future, the US has taken the unusual step of offering to mediate in
the dispute (APA, November 18). If the dispute is resolved and a TCP
is built, it may ultimately be used to send Azerbaijani gas east,
not Turkmen gas west.

Why the sudden activity by Baku? Partly, the moves are designed to
call Europe’s bluff and provoke it into action on Nabucco.

Unfortunately, Brussels doesn’t seem to have heard the message. The
timing of the moves, however, indicates at a deeper and more alarming
reason: growing disenchantment with Azerbaijan’s longstanding ally,
Turkey.

For years Ankara has obstructed Nabucco by insisting on preferential
price tariffs and a share of the allocated gas for its own domestic
market. Negotiations have continued for some time, and Baku was
willing to politely discuss the issue – up to a point. This changed
when Turkey’s government decided to press on with normalising relations
with Armenia, before any progress has been made on the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey’s decision has been
widely viewed in Azerbaijan as a betrayal of the fraternal relationship
between the two countries, and prompted Baku to take an increasingly
tough stance on gas negotiations. Ankara needs Nabucco to fulfill its
goal of being a regional energy hub, and appears unwilling to back
down. Whilst previously the disagreement was largely commercial,
Baku’s fury over the ‘Armenian thaw’ has made the pricing dispute
extremely political.

There is a very real risk that the sense of inertia created by these
obstacles will finally kill off Nabucco’s prospects. Although a deal
with Turkey will almost certainly be struck in the end, the long-term
damage will have been done.

The implication could well be Azerbaijan’s gradual shift away from
the West’s geopolitical orbit. The role of oil and gas pipelines in
tying states together is sometimes overstated but, in the long run,
Baku could find itself closely linked with Moscow and Tehran through
commercial relationships. Oil and gas underpin Azerbaijan’s economy:
its energy ties inevitably influence its foreign policy.

As always in the Caspian region, business is politics. The tension
over Nabucco has been building for some time, but the immediate
trigger of Azerbaijan’s energy shift was the Turkish decision to
negotiate with Armenia without progress on Karabakh. Unless Ankara
alters its position, there is no reason to doubt that Azerbaijan’s
long-term gas strategy will change.

Policymakers in Brussels and in Washington should acknowledge the
dangers involved and commit themselves to resolving this situation
through serious, frank dialogue with Ankara and Baku. Failure to act
now will have severe consequences for energy security, and geopolitics,
in the long term.

U.S. EXERTS PRESSURE ON AZERBAIJAN: NOVRUZ MAMMADOV

news.am
Nov 24 2009
Armenia

Azerbaijan will hold its ground on Karabakh issue right to the end and
there is no point in exerting pressure on official Baku in any format,"
Chief of international relations department of Azerbaijani Presidential
Administration Novruz Mammadov stated at the international conference
"Security obstacles in the South Caucasus: Realities and Prospects for
Regional Cooperation" organized by the Center for Strategic Studies
under Azerbaijani President.

According to Azadlig, Azerbaijan does not get any assistance from U.S.,
quite the contrary, "continuously faces criticism by West for human
rights and other issues," Mammadov said. Speaking of the Armenia-Turkey
Protocols on the normalization of bilateral relations, he noted that
"western diplomats often say they are short of time and opportunity to
discuss various issues, however all of a sudden they got together in
Zurich for border opening and the Protocols were signed at top level."

Referring to verdict against two Azerbaijani bloggers, Mammadov
underlined: "Western, and U.S. press in particularly display greater
interest in the matter, that in NKR issue. "The official actually
esteemed it as a pressure on Azerbaijan, the source reports. Mammadov
called western diplomats to simmer down in the issues connected with
Azerbaijan. According to him, "Azerbaijan can play a mediator’s role
between the East and West, Islamic and Christian worlds." In addition,
the official emphasized that "as a result of BBC poll conducted
in Arabian states, 8 out of 10 respondents express hatred towards
the U.S. and this country should take a though over the matters,"
Mammadov concluded.

MONITORING TO BE CONDUCTED ON CONTACT LINE BETWEEN AZERBAIJANI AND ARMENIAN ARMED FORCES

APA
Nov 24 2009
Azerbaijan

Baku – APA. Under the mandate of Special Representative of the
OSCE-Chairperson-in-Office, the line of contact between the troops
near Yusifjanli village of Aghdam region of Azerbaijan will be
monitored on November 25. Defense Ministry’s press service told APA
that field assistants of the Personal Representative of the OSCE
Chairperson-in-Office Peter Key and Vladimir Chountulov will conduct
the monitoring in Azerbaijani side.

Field assistants of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office Jiri Aberleh,
Imre Palatinus and Jaslan Nurtazin will conduct the monitoring in
the opposite side of the line of contact recognized as territory of
Azerbaijan on the international level.

PRESIDENTS OF AZERBAIJAN AND RUSSIA TO DISCUSS KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT

news.az
Nov 24 2009
Azerbaijan

D.Medvedev and I.Aliyev

Presidents of Russia Dmitri Medvedev and Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev will
discuss the problem of the Karabakh conflict settlement in Ulyanovsk
and attend the events on naming one of the city squares after Heydar
Aliyev, according to a source in the Kremlin.

During the meeting, the sides are expected to continue exchange of
views on urgent issues of international and regional agenda.

"These include the Karabakh conflict settlement mediated by Russia
as an OSCE Minsk Group’s co-chair", the source said.

Medvedev and Aliyev will also attend the ceremony of naming one of
the city squares after Heydar Aliyev.

In June of 1983 Heydar Aliyev, who was the first deputy chairman of
the USSR Ministers Council, led a state commission on elimination
of implications of Alexander Suvorov ship’s crash that grabbed on
a railway bridge support via the Volga river under Ulyanovsk. The
accident caused death to 176 people.

In July of 2008 a memorial to H.Aliyev was erected at the initiate
of the local representatives of the public organization "All-Russian
Congress of Azerbaijanis" in Zasviyazh region of Ulyanovsk and in
September of this year, the Ulyanovsk town building council decided
to name the square at which this memorial is erected after H.Aliyev.

VICE SPEAKER: ARMENIA DOES NOT ACT AS A SERIOUS STATE

news.az
Nov 24 2009
Azerbaijan

Ziyafet Askerov Armenia lingers the resolution of the Karabakh
conflict, first vice speaker of the Azerbaijani parliament Ziyafet
Askerov says.

"Armenia is interested in the preservation of the quo status and does
not fulfill four resolutions of the UN Security Council, does not
follow international legal norms and principles", the news service
of Milli Medjlis quoted Askerov as saying during the meeting with
member of British House of Lords John Desmond Forbes Anderson Waverley
in Baku.

Askerov said the meetings on the level of parliamentarians have been
held for more than ten years yet aggressor Armenia does not act as
a serious state and rejects positive tendencies reached during the
negotiations thus lingering the conflict resolution.

Askerov said despite 18 year activity of the OSCE Minsk Group, there
are still no results.

Askerov said Azerbaijan supports peace and wants the peaceful
resolution of the conflict.

"But if Armenia continues to linger the peaceful resolution of the
Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan will be obliged to use military way of
liberating its lands", he said.

According to him, the international community treats the Karabakh
conflict as an observer. Askerov said the world countries should
differentiate between aggressor Armenia and victim Azerbaijan.

"These two states should be assessed for their actions and the
conflict settlement should be viewed in this very prism", the first
vice speaker said.

In turn, Lord Waverley agreed on most statements of the first vice
speaker of parliament. He noted that the settlement primarily requires
the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, return of refugees and IDPs to
their homes and provision of Armenians’ security in Nagorno Karabakh.

PROGRESS ACHIEVED IN MUNICH MEETING OF AZERBAIJANI, ARMENIAN PRESIDENTS: AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN MINISTRY

Today
57715.html
Nov 24 2009
Azerbaijan

During the Munich meeting, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan conducted deeper and detailed
discussions around the unsolved issues, Spokesman of Azerbaijan’s
Foreign Ministry Elkhan Polukhov said.

The meeting lasted for more than 4 hours which also shows importance
of the meeting, he said.

The diplomat noted that a progress was reached in terms of
approximation in positions of the parties on some issues.

"Moreover, the presidents of both countries instructed the foreign
ministers to continue the talks. The next meeting of the foreign
ministers of the two countries will be held in Athens in early
December," Polukhov added.

TURKISH PARLIAMENT SPEAKER MEETS HIS ARMENIAN COUNTERPART IN MOSCOW

Trend
Nov 24 2009
Azerbaijan

Turkish Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Sahin, who is currently in
Russian capital of Moscow for the 34th General Assembly of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Cooperation (PABSEC), had a
meeting with Armenian National Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan on
Monday, Anadolu Agency reported.

After the meeting, Sahin told reporters that Turkey which acted
with the principle of improving ties with its neighbors was eager to
normalize its relations with Armenia.

Turkey and Armenia earlier signed protocols foreseeing normalization
of relations, he said.

EUROPEAN UNION FOLLOWS CAGE ACTION PLAN ‘VERY CLOSELY’

Today’s Zaman
Nov 24 2009
Turkey

The European Union has announced that it has "very closely" been
following developments related to a Naval Forces Command plan, called
the Cage Operation Action Plan, aimed at discrediting the Justice
and Development Party (AK Party).

In a written statement the commission made clear that it has been
following all Ergenekon-related developments, including the latest
Cage plan. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn’s spokesperson,
Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, said they were waiting for justice to take
its course and reveal the truth. "We follow this latest development
as well as all others linked to the Ergenekon case very closely.

Democrats in Turkey and the EU expect that justice will unveil the
truth, and nothing but the truth, in full respect of due judicial
process," Altafaj-Tardio said.

The Cage action plan was signed by Lt. Col. Ercan Kirectepe and was
planned to be put into operation by a team of 41 members of the Naval
Forces Command. It envisaged the assassination of prominent non-Muslim
figures and the spreading of propaganda to increase internal and
external pressure on the AK Party, leading to its demise in politics,
according to the plan.

The action plan would be implemented to lend support to suspects
arrested so far as part of the Ergenekon investigation, render
ineffective so-called psychological warfare waged by the AK Party and
its supporters (against the military), change the course of the agenda
in Turkey, boost the morale of the junta within the Naval Forces
Command, and win the appreciation and support of the public. The
blame for each of the assassinations by the junta would be put on
the AK Party.

In its annual progress report made public on Oct. 14, the European
Commission referred to the Ergenekon investigation as an opportunity
for Turkish democracy. "This case is an opportunity for Turkey to
strengthen confidence in the proper functioning of its democratic
institutions and the rule of law," the report said.

The murders of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink and three
missionaries in Malatya were mentioned in many EU documents and
referred to in the progress report. "Reports by civil society
organizations and statements by witnesses, in particular regarding the
alleged criminal network Ergenekon, the murder of three Protestants
in Malatya and the murder of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink
cases, highlighted these concerns in specific cases. As regards the
latter case in particular, a report from the Prime Ministry Inspection
Board questioned the security forces’ role prior to the murder.

According to the report, the security forces appeared to refrain from
taking action after having received credible information about death
threats against Mr. Dink. The trials in Istanbul, Samsun and Trabzon
on this murder are continuing, but have not been merged, as has been
requested by the lawyers representing the family of Mr. Dink," the
report said.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

UNPROTECTED NON-MUSLIM CEMETERIES UNDER CAGE THREAT

Today’s Zaman
Nov 24 2009
Turkey

Several of Istanbul’s 65 non-Muslim cemeteries, which are not properly
protected, have been targeted in provocative attacks, as was mentioned
in an action plan devised by a group of Naval Forces Command officers.

The Cage Operation Action Plan, aimed at sparking clashes between
Turkey’s Muslim and non-Muslim population through schemes including
assassinations of prominent non-Muslim figures and bomb attacks at
non-Muslim cemeteries. The anti-democratic formation within the Naval
Forces Command hoped to trigger a coup d’état.

Ä°stanbul has 65 non-Muslim cemeteries, which are not affiliated with
the Ä°stanbul Municipality’s Directorate for Cemeteries. Therefore,
those cemeteries are not guarded by the municipality. All protection
and maintenance services of those cemeteries are met by Turkey’s
Armenian, Greek and Jewish communities. Some are in good condition,
as they receive financial aid from those communities, but many others
are in a miserable state and lack proper protection. Ä°stanbul’s
non-Muslim cemeteries are mainly situated in Kadıköy, BeÅ~_iktaÅ~_,
Uskudar, Adalar, Sarıyer, Å~^iÅ~_li, Beyoglu, Zeytinburnu, Fatih
and Bakırköy districts.

Recent incidents at the Balıklı Greek Orthodox Cemetery in
Zeytinburnu suggest that the Cage plan was at least partially put
into operation.

Around 90 graves at the cemetery have been desecrated by unidentified
assailants since the summer months.

The spiritual leader of the GedikpaÅ~_a Armenian Protestant Church,
Kirkor Agabaloglu, complained that the stones and crosses marking
graves at non-Muslim cemeteries are destroyed by people who visit
the cemeteries. "Non-Muslim cemeteries are surrounded by walls. We
have guards at the cemeteries’ doors. Many people visit the cemeteries.

They destroy the stones and crosses around the graves. Our protective
efforts will continue to fall short as long as people fail to change
their destructive mindsets," he remarked.

Agabaloglu also stated that the plans against non-Muslim cemeteries
are aimed at discrediting the Justice and Development Party (AK Party)
because the party has recently taken steps to eradicate hostility
against minorities in Turkey.

TURKISH DIPLOMACY RESHAPES THE ARMENIAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Emil Danielyan

Jamestown Foundation
Nov 24 2009

The dramatic rapprochement with Turkey is having profound implications
for Armenia’s domestic political scene and, in particular, among its
diverse and volatile opposition. The main opposition player, Levon
Ter-Petrosian, has defended President Serzh Sargsyan against what he
sees as unjustified nationalist criticism and essentially offered to
recognize the latter’s legitimacy questioned by many Armenians (which
would have been unthinkable only a few weeks ago) (Yerkir-Media TV,
November 12).

The about-face further blurred the division lines in Armenian politics
that were drawn by the disputed presidential election in February 2008
and the ensuing bloody suppression of anti-government demonstrations
staged by the Ter-Petrosian-led opposition. This began to change in
April, when the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF, also known as
the Dashnak Party) quit the country’s governing coalition in protest
against Sargsyan’s conciliatory policy towards Turkey. Indeed, this
policy was also strongly criticized by other political allies of
Sargsyan’s more hard line predecessor, Robert Kocharian.

Ter-Petrosian and most of the dozen opposition groups aligned with his
Armenian National Congress (HAK) took a more nuanced, if confusing,
approach to the Turkish-Armenian normalization "protocols" signed in
Zurich on October 10. Ter-Petrosian, who served as Armenia’s first
president from 1991-1998, finally elaborated on that stance in a
keynote speech delivered at a November 11 meeting of senior members
of the alliance. He made clear that the only provision in the two
agreements unacceptable to the HAK is the clause envisaging the
creation of a Turkish-Armenian "sub-commission" that would look into
the World War I-era massacres of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. He
echoed widespread Armenian fears that Ankara would exploit the
existence of such a body to prevent more countries from recognizing
the slaughter of up to 1.5 million Ottoman Armenians as genocide.

Ter-Petrosian spent a large part of the speech (the transcript of
which was released to the Armenian media) rejecting other arguments
against the deal that are advanced by the ARF and other "extreme
nationalists." The latter are especially unhappy with a protocol
clause that commits Armenia to explicitly recognize its existing
border with Turkey. It goes against their fundamental belief that
an eventual Turkish recognition of the genocide should be followed
by Armenian territorial claims to areas in eastern Turkey that had
a sizable Armenian population until 1915 (, November 12).

Ter-Petrosian denounced the irredentist agenda as a dangerous
illusion, which not only precludes Turkish-Armenian reconciliation,
but challenges the existing world order. He also stressed, "It is not
Sargsyan who first recognized the Turkish-Armenian border -the Dashnaks
and Bolsheviks had done that before with the [1920 and 1921] treaties
of Alexandropol and Kars. It was not him who renounced territorial
claims -it was Robert Kocharian" (, November 12).

The HAK will, therefore, not join in the "nationalist hysteria"
sparked by the protocols, continued the former president. Instead,
he implied, the opposition bloc could help Sargsyan legitimize his
presidency at home, and thus avoid making more concessions to Turkey
as well as Azerbaijan. Ter-Petrosian’s right-hand man, Levon Zurabian,
clarified at a November 17 news conference that the HAK is ready to
cooperate with the president if he releases all "political prisoners"
arrested after the 2008 vote, "restores democratic freedoms" and
carries out other democratic reforms in Armenia (Radio Free Europe
Armenia Report, November 17.)

It was a significant change from the previously uncompromising rhetoric
of HAK leaders. In a June 1 speech, for example, Ter-Petrosian branded
Sargsyan "an ordinary usurper who must be immediately ousted and
put on trial" and called for the formation of a more broad-based
anti-government coalition that would also comprise the ARF, his
longtime rival. Ter-Petrosian reaffirmed the demand as recently as
September 18, chiding the ARF for its continued reluctance to campaign
for regime change (EDM, October 14).

"He is offering the authorities a deal," Giro Manoyan, the ARF
foreign policy spokesman, scoffed on November 12 (Yerkir-Media TV,
November 12). One of the nationalist party’s senior leaders, Hrant
Markarian, spoke about the possibility of such a deal with alarm
during a November 15 meeting in Paris of Armenian diaspora groups
opposed to the Turkish-Armenian agreements. Markarian wondered whether
Ter-Petrosian "has already reached an agreement with Serzh Sargsyan
behind the scenes" and urged the Armenian leader not to "surrender"
to his most influential opponent (, November 16).

Sargsyan has not yet personally reacted to Ter-Petrosian’s
extraordinary overtures. On November 18 the pro-presidential daily
Hayots Ashkhar quoted the chief spokesman for his Republican Party
of Armenia (HHK), Eduard Sharmazanov, as noting with satisfaction
that the opposition leader "announced the elimination of the demand
for Serzh Sargsyan’s resignation." "If Ter-Petrosian really has any
desire to cooperate, he should not send messages or drop hints, but
should have the courage and resolve to participate in the [multi-party]
discussions and meetings periodically initiated by the president,"
said Sharmazanov (Hayots Ashkhar, November 18).

Other HHK figures were more dismissive about the cooperation offer,
with Galust Sahakian, the ruling party’s parliamentary leader,
saying that it does not warrant "serious political conclusions" (Azg,
November 17.) Razmik Zohrabian, an HHK deputy chairman, told Radio
Free Europe on November 12 that Ter-Petrosian is simply "jealous"
about Sargsyan’s rising international profile.

The Armenian leader will hardly share such simplistic views. Unlike
the tough-talking and at times flamboyant Kocharian, he has proven
willing to set aside bad blood and make tactical alliances with his
detractors throughout his political career. Earning some kind of
recognition from a shrewd and charismatic rival such as Ter-Petrosian
is surely a temptation that Sargsyan might find too hard to resist.