BAKU: STRATFOR Company Expert: Turkish Parliament Will Most Likely N

STRATFOR COMPANY EXPERT: TURKISH PARLIAMENT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT RATIFY PROTOCOLS

Today
/57097.html
Nov 2 2009
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with STRATFOR global intelligence company expert
Marco Papic.

Day.Az: What, in your opinion, Washington’s role in today’s dialogue
between Armenia and Turkey? Can we speak of a certain pressure
on Ankara?

Marco Papic: Not at all. U.S. will not pressure Turkey on this issue
because it needs Turkish cooperation on much more important, from
Washington’s perspective, topics. Here we are mainly talking about
Iran, Iraq and even with Bosnia.

Q: What can you say about the possible opening of borders between
Turkey and Armenia? In your opinion, will the Turkish-Armenian
protocols be ratified by the Turkish Parliament?

A: Reopening of Turkish-Armenian border would be a positive development
for Ankara. It would gain access into the region and also settle some
of the frozen conflicts that destabilize its borders.

Ankara wants a stable neighborhood so that it can spread its influence
accordingly. In regards to the ratification of the protocols – Its
difficult to gauge right now, but the Parliament will most likely not
ratify anything that settles the diplomatic dispute between Ankara and
Yerevan that does not also settle the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.

Q: How does the dialogue between Armenia and Turkey affect the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Can Baku expect any concessions on the
Karabakh issue from Yerevan?

A: Thus far Turkey has maintained that without a solution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, there won’t be any resolution to the
Turkish-Armenian talks. This seems to be still the case today and will
continue to be the case. However, in the future, it is possible that
Armenia will decide that normalizing its relations with Turkey will
be more important than maintaining a hard-line on the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue.

Q: How important, in your opinion, is now Armenian diaspora in
Turkish-Armenian relations? What can be expected if the borders will
be opened after all?

A: The diaspora is not as important as it is often portrayed. Yerevan
is pretty much doing what it needs to do regardless of the diaspora’s
position.

http://www.today.az/news/politics

Dance Studio Shows A New Move

DANCE STUDIO SHOWS A NEW MOVE
By Michael J. Arvizu

Glendale News Press
Nov 2 2009
CA

Grigori Sedrakyan helps students in his couples dance class with
their moves at Matador Dance Studio in Glendale last week. Sedrakyan
opened his own studio after renting for the past three years. (Scott
Smeltzer/News-Press)

Matador Dance Studio, is the culmination of a lifelong dream for
award-winning dancer Grigori Sedrakyan. After three years of having
to rent studio space, the classically trained dancer finally has a
studio he can call his own.

Matador, at 1814 Flower St. in Glendale, celebrated its grand opening
Wednesday.

Sedrakyan, who co-owns Matador Dance Studio with wife, Lilia, was
all smiles about his new studio and the opportunities that await him.

"It’s like a story that never ends," Sedrakyan said of his new studio.

"I try to pass whatever I achieve, whatever I have, all this, to my
students. It feels really good."

Before opening Matador Dance Studio, Sedrakyan would have to rent
space at various locations.

Matador, Sedrakyan said, is bigger and offers better amenities than
his old studios. The Flower Street studio offers space for private
instruction, showers, a kitchen and waiting room. Currently under
construction are a gym and a store that will be offered to parents
to buy dance supplies.

"Everything is different about this studio," said Ani Avetyan, whose
daughter, Ani Ratevosian, is a student of Sedrakyan’s. "It’s much
bigger and much nicer."

Having his own studio also gives him the freedom to come in whenever he
wants, giving his students more freedom to schedule private instruction
and for other instructors to schedule group classes, Sedrakyan said.

Sedrakyan offers classes for people of all ages — his youngest student
is 5, and his oldest student is 91. He tailors his teaching style to
fit his student’s age. Matador offers classes in international Latin
dancing (Sedrakyan’s specialty), ballroom dancing, international
ballroom dancing, salsa, samba and rumba. Other classes Matador is
looking to introduce include ballet and hip-hop.

Sedrakyan began dancing in his native Armenia. He has been an
instructor and student in Moscow, where he also competed. Sedrakyan
has also competed and taught in Ukraine and Lebanon.

When Sedrakyan moved to the United States, he began competing with
partner Lilit Avagryan. The couple went on to win the U.S. nationals,
becoming one of the top dance couples in the country. Avagryan is now
an instructor at Matador. For now, Sedrakyan has stopped competing
professionally so he can concentrate his efforts on teaching his
students, he said.

Sedrakyan has also choreographed shows in Las Vegas, most recently
assisting on the choreography for the show "Le RÃ~Cªve."

Sedrakyan, 27, has been teaching since he was 16, mentoring new
students in Armenia. By the time he began teaching, Sedrakyan was
already a dance champion.

"I’m happy that we have this studio," said Matador Dance Studio student
and instructor Mariam Narinyan, 18. "This one, I can come here any
time. We have all the time here. It’s much bigger. It’s like the
ballroom where I go and compete."

The new studio, Narinyan said, will give her more time to practice —
up to three or four hours, compared to the one hour she would have at
the old studios. Practicing for only one hour made her feel unprepared
for competition, Narinyan said.

"This studio is more fun for them," said Armine Boulankian of West
Hollywood, whose three kids are enrolled in classes at the studio.

Dance student Nare Aharonyan said the old studio was cramped, and
"most people didn’t get to dance." Aharonyan said the new studio will
give her more opportunities to dance, given that it’s much bigger, and
more freedom to express herself by taking advantage of a bigger space.

"Anybody can come here for their health, and to learn how to dance,"
Narinyan said.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Armenia’s Premier League Winners Known

ARMENIA’S PREMIER LEAGUE WINNERS KNOWN

PanARMENIAN.Net
02.11.2009 18:23 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ 27th round of Supreme League championship of Armenia
was held November 1 and Armenia’s Premier League winners are already
known:

"Shirak" – "Pyunik" – 1:3 Goals: Albert Tadevosyan (43, 52, 65),
Vahagn Minasyan (47, own goal)

"Banants" – "Ulysses" – 2:3 Goals: Artyom Adamyan (16), Armen Tigranyan
(25), Norayr Gyozalyan (48), Aleksandr Petrosyan (81), Samvel Melkonyan
(pen, 90 +3)

"Mika" – "Ararat" – 2:3 Goals: Arsen Avetisyan (16, 37), Roman Arkusha
(62), Ara Hovhannisyan (64,67)

"Mika" – "Cilicia" – 2:1 Goals: Boti Demel (9), Artur Minasyan (53),
Edney de Oliveira (90 +3).

Football Club Pyunik will become champion the ninth time with 62
points.

Armenians Reject Establishing Ties With Turkey

ARMENIANS REJECT ESTABLISHING TIES WITH TURKEY

Angus Reid Global Monitor
/armenians_reject_establishing_ties_with_turkey
No v 2 2009
Canada

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Most people in Armenia think their
country should not establish ties with neighbouring Turkey, according
to a poll by the Armenian Sociological Association. 52 per cent of
respondents oppose relations with Turkey, while 39 per cent support
them.

The recent history of Turkey’s neighbour is deeply marked by the deaths
of thousands of Armenians in 1915 following an order by the government
of the Ottoman Empire–formed by members of the Turkish nationalist
Committee of Union and Progress (ITC)–urging thousands of Armenians
to relocate from the Caucasus to the deserts of Syria and Mesopotamia.

The state-sponsored deportation campaign led to a high number of
fatalities, estimated at anywhere from 200,000 to 1.8 million. While
some scholars believe the campaign was a deliberate attempt to
exterminate Armenians, Turkey has never formally accepted the use of
the term "genocide" to describe the event. Relations between the two
countries remain tense to this day because of it.

Currently, many adults in Armenia believe their border with Turkey
should not be reopened unless there is an official acknowledgement
of the genocide.

On Oct. 10, Armenian foreign minister Edouard Nalbandian and his
Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu, signed an agreement in Zurich,
Switzerland, calling for the normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations.

The legislatures of both countries have to ratify the pact–which
includes opening the border and establishing diplomatic
relations–before it can be implemented. The agreement also calls
for setting up an independent commission of historians to examine
the genocide issue.

Just before the signing ceremony on Oct. 10, Armenian president
Serge Sarkisian declared: "Any relations with Turkey cannot call into
question that genocide was committed against the Armenian people. This
should be recognized and condemned by humankind."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose a deal to establish ties with Turkey?

Support 39%

Oppose 52%

Source: Armenian Sociological Association Methodology: Interviews
with 1,000 Armenian adults, conducted from Sept. 21 to Sept. 25,
2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/34421

Arthur Abraham: I Have 31 Victories In 31 Fights, I Hope They Will C

ARTHUR ABRAHAM: I HAVE 31 VICTORIES IN 31 FIGHTS, I HOPE THEY WILL CONTINUE

PanARMENIAN.Net
02.11.2009 18:31 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The fight with Jermain Taylor was quite heavy,
the former world middleweight champion, Armenian boxer Arthur Abraham
told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.

"Taylor cannot continue his participation in the Super Six World
Boxing Classic tournament, because after such KOs athletes has not
been allowed to fight for 6 months, " Abraham said.

According to him, Taylor could be replaced, but is not yet clear who
will take his place.

His next fight Abraham will hold in the United States on January
23 with the American Andrew Direlem. "Direl won all his battles,
but I have 31 victory in 31 fights. Hope, this will continue ",
Arthur Abraham said.

Stepan Safaryan Presented Approaches Of "Heritage" In The EU

STEPAN SAFARYAN PRESENTED APPROACHES OF "HERITAGE" IN THE EU

PanARMENIAN.Net
02.11.2009 19:00 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The head of the "Heritage" parliamentary faction
Stepan Safaryan held several meetings with officials of European
Commission, European Parliament and EU Council in Brussels and
Strasbourg between October 18 and 30.

During the European tour Stepan Safaryan discussed issues related
to democratization of the country and overcoming political crisis,
Armenia-EU relations, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenia-Turkey
relations.

European officials presented the policies and approaches of the EU on
the above mentioned issues, press office of the Heritage Party reports.

RA President Hopes To Deepen Multilateral Cooperation With Japan

RA PRESIDENT HOPES TO DEEPEN MULTILATERAL COOPERATION WITH JAPAN

PanARMENIAN.Net
02.11.2009 19:11 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On November 2, newly appointed Japanese Ambassador
to Armenia Masaharu Kono (residence: Moscow) submitted his credentials
to President Serzh Sargsyan.

Congratulating the diplomat on his new appointment, Mr. Sargsyan said
he was interested in deepening multilateral cooperation with Japan.

Armenian leader expressed his gratitude to Japanese government for
assisting in development programs.

With regard to bilateral economic cooperation, President noted that
much was to be done in the sphere. Mr. Sargsyan also attached much
importance to RA Foreign Minister’s visit to Tokyo, noting that meeting
would help proceed with political dialogue and extend relations in
various spheres.

Japanese leader noted in turn that he would do his utmost for
consistent development of bilateral ties.

RA Premier Received Delegation From Rusal Company

RA PREMIER RECEIVED DELEGATION FROM RUSAL COMPANY

PanARMENIAN.Net
02.11.2009 19:44 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On November 2, Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan
received a delegation from Rusal company, headed by Alexander Lifshits,
Director on International and Special Projects.

Parties considered possibilities of company’s further activities in
crisis time. They also touched upon other issues of mutual interest,
RA Government’s press service reports.

Professor Of Catholic University Of Leuven Awarded "Gold Medal" Of A

PROFESSOR OF CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF LEUVEN AWARDED "GOLD MEDAL" OF ARMENIA’S MINISTRY OF EDUCATION

PanARMENIAN.Net
02.11.2009 19:54 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The professor of the Catholic University of Leuven
(Belgium) Bernard Coughlin was awarded the "Gold Medal" of the
Ministry of Education and Science of Armenia. Bernard Coughlin is
the author of four works in Armenian studies. The professor made a
great contribution to the study of Armenian cuneiform writings.

Bernard Coughlin, who is a member of Europe – Armenia Advisory
Committee expressed gratitude for such a high award. Minister Armen
Ashotyan and professor Bernard Coughlin also discussed issues related
to the cooperation agreement between Belgium and Armenia in the sphere
of education to be signed between the two governments.

ANKARA: Professor Karaosmanoglu: Time For Military To Respect Democr

PROFESSOR KARAOSMANOGLU: TIME FOR MILITARY TO RESPECT DEMOCRACY

Today’s Zaman
8-8-professor-karaosmanoglu-time-for-military-to-r espect-democracy.html
Nov 2 2009
Turkey

Ali Karaosmanoglu, an academic with expertise in civilian-military
relations, has said the military’s "hands-off" position on politics
has become more visible since the second half of 2007 but that it
should do more.

"The military should accept that the last word is with the civilian
authority, and the military should believe in democracy," he told
Today’s Zaman for Monday Talk as the discovery of a military plan,
the "Action Plan to Fight Reactionaryism" to discredit the government
has revealed once again the deep divisions that exist within the
state, mainly between the military-led bureaucrats and the political
authorities.

There are signs of much improvement in civilian-military relations,
on the other hand, Karaosmanoglu said; for example, despite the
military’s April 27, 2007, "electronic ultimatum" to the government,
the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) was re-elected in
the July elections of that same year, increasing its vote to about 46
percent from 34.29 percent in the November 2002 elections. And since
then, civilian-military relations have begun to take a new turn as
the military’s role in politics has become less visible.

However, the Turkish Council of Forensic Medicine (ATK) recently
confirmed the authenticity of an action plan signed by a colonel which
allegedly intended to unseat the ruling party. The plan is currently
the subject of judicial process.

Karaosmanoglu, whose article "Turkish Security Culture: Evolutionary
or Carved in Stone" appeared in a book published last week by the
Netherlands-based Centre for European Security Studies (CESS), holds
the view that the ups and downs in the process of consolidating
democracy in Turkey should not prevent us from seeing the "whole
picture."

You hold the view that the Turkish Armed Forces [TSK] does not involve
itself in politics as much as it used to do. How have you reached
this conclusion?

First of all, this is a requirement for consolidating democracy
in Turkey. One sign in that regard can be seen in the reforms in
2002-2005 [in order to fulfill the European Union’s Copenhagen
criteria]. Those reforms considerably decreased the military’s
influence in politics. The military did not oppose these developments;
indeed, it was willing for these reforms to be implemented.

Why?

Because the military saw that democratization would be good for the
country, and they concluded that the state would be empowered if it
adapted itself to changing conditions.

What kind of conditions?

Take the Annan plan. Most of the members of the military were opposed
to the Annan plan, but despite of their opposition, they cooperated
with the civilian government. This example shows that the military is
trying to ease the state’s adaptation to the changing international
environment. And there have been ups and downs in the process.

Would you elaborate on this?

For example, the military issued an "electronic memorandum" [or
e-ultimatum on April 27, 2007] to express its reservations during
the presidential election. This showed that the military did not
favor a takeover of the government by a military coup d’état. The
ruling AK Party government reacted harshly to the "memorandum." Plus,
the military’s interference proved ineffective, as demonstrated by
the landslide electoral victory of the AK Party. Then the Dolmabahce
meeting between the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and former
Chief of General Staff Gen. YaÅ~_ar Buyukanıt took place. Following
that meeting, we started to see increasing cooperation between the
military and government. And the cooperation continued in various
areas.

Civilian-military relations take a new turn Could you talk more about
these areas? In what areas have you noticed cooperation between the
government and the military?

We can see that in the improvement of relations with Armenia, and
more importantly we can see that in the Kurdish issue and the fight
against the PKK [the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party]. One reason
for this cooperation between the military and government has been that
the fight against terrorism has become an international issue. And
the Kurdish issue has taken on international importance as well.

How?

Following the occupation of Iraq, an autonomous Kurdish region
gained strength there. In addition, the PKK has been involved
in the drug trade. Moreover, it has been revealed that the PKK’s
financial resources came partly from international sources. Plus,
conducting cross-border operations in 2007-2008 required diplomatic
preparations and initiatives. Therefore, the national aspects of
the issues started to interact with the international aspects, and
interestingly the international aspects have come to the fore. When
international aspects become prominent, the political aspects of the
issues become prominent as well, increasing the need for the civilian
government’s prominence. It has been obligatory to give priority to
the civilian government in that regard. This has been an important
development in civilian-military relations. And Turkey has taken
a step forward in that regard, independent of the reform process
required for membership in the European Union.

If international aspects had not required such a development, would
you say that improvements in civilian-military relations could not
have happened?

They still could have occurred; that was one factor. There were other
international factors, too. With globalization, democratization,
respect for human rights and the supremacy of law have gained more
importance. Parallel to these developments, the norms of legitimacy
have changed, both internationally and domestically. Changing norms
of legitimacy required the state to adapt to this change. This was
seen both by the government and military. Then arose the need for the
renewal of the state, be it by adapting to new norms, establishing
new relations or forming new institutions.

‘Kurdish opening likely to continue’ Where do you think the Kurdish
opening is going?

There are ups and downs. The arrival of the members of the PKK led to
anger in the society in general. In addition to this, the government
has perceived the manner in which the DTP [Democratic Society Party]
received the PKK members, holding joyous celebrations, as a political
move. The government has halted the process of receiving more members
of the PKK, but this halt is most probably only temporary and the
process is likely to continue.

How long do you think it will take until society sees another group
of PKK members coming back to Turkey?

It might take a long time until that happens again. But the important
thing is that the process will continue.

Why do you see this process in a way that there will be no turning
back?

It is because there is a process of cultural change occurring in
Turkey. This change is about political culture, which has already
gone a long way in the process of change. It is no longer stoppable. A
change in political culture has become obligatory. The renewal of the
state as necessary has been seen in the history of state tradition in
Turkey. In the Ottoman Empire the state renewed itself and adapted
to changes, and the elites cooperated in the process. [Scholars]
Å~^erif Mardin and Kemal Karpat explain this issue in detail. We
are going through the same thing today in the republic: The state
has to adapt itself to the changing conditions in order to sustain
itself. This is a part of our political culture. That’s why it is an
unstoppable process. And it will go on until democracy is consolidated.

‘EU can accelerate change in Turkey’ Is it realistic to think about
a time period for that?

The process can only be expedited. The European Union is important
in that regard because the EU can have a role in facilitating the
reform process in Turkey, as we have seen before. This was the case in
2002-2005. This process is also useful because it creates interaction
between Turkey and the EU; Turkey learns more about Europe and Europe
learns more about Turkey and some prejudices are eliminated in the
process as some channels for dialogue are opened. Those channels of
dialogue make it easier to offer new ideas. [In a meeting with experts
from Europe on the issue of civilian-military relations in Europe and
Turkey] we saw that there are differing practices and rules in each
country of Europe. So what is the goal of the European Union criteria?

What is it?

Its goal is to establish a framework which is democratic, but the
inside of this framework is blank and it presents many opportunities.

If a country, for example Turkey, uses this opportunity, it can produce
a civilian-military relations model which can be quite democratic. The
important thing is to make good use of this opportunity.

What is the essence of the matter in reconsidering civilian-military
relations?

It is important to understand that the military is an important
institution. Its duty is to protect the nation, and that’s why it has
weapons. But the military should not try to create political influence
by depending on the power that comes from having weapons. Moreover,
the military should be subordinate to the civilian authority. In
addition, the civilian authority should be involved in dialogue
with the military and should take military expertise seriously. The
civilian government should consult with the military in matters of
security and defense, but at the same time it should have the power
to control all military spending. In addition to this, the military
should accept that the last word rests with the civilian authority,
and the military should believe in democracy. This is the essence of
the matter. These are the European criteria. This is the framework
which can involve different models. Although the military commanders
continue to make declarations on public and political matters, Turkey
is moving toward a regime with more political initiative and less
direct military influence over politics.

What do you think the role of the opposition is in the process?

A consensus among the political parties on establishing a more
democratic balance between secularism and Islam and between the
Kurdish question and the unitary state would certainly increase the
possibility of more democratic control over the military and its
complete subordination to civilian authority.

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-19171